4/25/2007

Season in Review: The Lost Boys

The Lost Boys made their FunHL debut in 2006-07 and the reviews were mostly positive, still this is a team with the potential to do great things down the road and that process is already underway. The Jolly Roger hasn't be raised to the top of the Predator Cup standings just yet but that is the goal and if the team's first season is any indication it is a goal that may be realized sooner than anyone might expect.

FPs: The Lost Boys joined the league by taking over one of the most cursed franchises in FunHL history. The season before the Barbarians was the name the team went by and they had managed one of their better historical showings by finishing in 9th position but only 10pts out of last. They inherited two FPs who both had surprising seasons: c Joe Sakic (100pts) had a season to remember posting his best season in 6 years at the age of 37 and lw I.Kovalchuk (76pts) who took a serious step backwards in what was expected to be a season where he would dominate. Going in, the expectation was that Sakic would need to find a new home, and soon, while Kovalchuk would be the cornerstone around which the Lost Boys would be built. Sakic was dealt and Kovalchuk, rightly, remains a key component of the Lost Boys' future but had their point totals been reversed at the end of the season it would have been much closer to everyone's expectations going in.

Draft: The Lost Boys had, with an Omnivore baseline of over 953pts, the 6th best team leaving the draft. A very respectable showing for a first effort. Their first four picks clearly demonstrate the Lost Boy's emphasis on building from the back-end out: S.Gonchar (67pts), M.Schneider (52pts), a match on L.Visnovsky (58pts) and a reasonable gamble on D.Hasek (108.73 pts). Gonchar was the highest pointing offensive defensman in the league while all three would end up in the top 15. Hasek, taken in the fourth round, was a top 6 goaltender and the best available by the time the Lost Boys made their selection.

The emphasis on defense and goaltending did leave them a little thin up front. Other than their two FPs, the Lost Boys only selected two forwards who scored more than 60pts: lw R.Smyth (68pts but on pace for 79!) and rfa c S.Koivu (75pts) one of the better selections in the draft going in the 11th round. C.Conroy (37pts) was a big disappointment and M.Knuble (54pts) was beset by injury troubles. While the big three on defense excelled for the Lost Boys, the bottom 5 were merely adequate with no rfa defenders exceeding 30pts. The Lost Boys would end up matching on six rfas over the course of the draft, they may break that total with this upcoming draft but as both Conroy and Knuble were rfa matches last season, it will be important to make sure that those rfas are matched judiciously.

Moving Forward: The Lost Boys set themselves a goal of being in the top half of the pool and of finishing ahead of the Severed Heads. Unfortunately they fell short of both but they did lay the foundation for a much better outing next season. Their real test will be in converting their potential into production - sometimes easier said than done.

FPs: The key super-star for the Lost Boys is I.Kovalchuk (76pts). In many respects his season, he was ranked 11th among all left wingers, was a disappointment but the fact remains that he is a phenomenal talent who should rebound with a great offensive outburst next season and for years to come. He is a keeper. The other Lost Boy FP by the end of the season was center Brad Richards (70pts), 20th best among centers. Like Kovalchuk, Richards' year was a disappointment but as some GMs remain skeptical about whether Richards should be an FP in any event the issue of what to do with him becomes more difficult. At best, the Lost Boys have gone from Joe Sakic (100pts) to a younger version of Burnaby Joe who should rebound from a poor season. At worst, they have a solid but unspectacular #2 or #3 pivot and need to upgrade. Either way, there seems to be no immediate need to decide his fate at this entry draft and Richards looks to be a Lost Boy for a while yet.

Prospects: When it became clear that the Lost Boys were not going to win it all, the rebuilding began in earnest. Every trade would need to include rfas and/or prospects. In the end, the team had amassed a good crop of both. Returning p4 goaltender M.Gerber (32.51pts), p3 center C.Bourque (0pts) and p2 left winger A.Mikhnov (0pts) probably won't be back next season. Mikhnov couldn't crack a very weak Oiler line-up and returned to Russia and while Bourque might have some upside at some point, other prospects are just, well, better prospects so he falls victem to the numbers game.

The more established prospects on the Lost Boys' list: p3 center M.Koivu (54pts) and p2 center A.Vermette (39pts) might just be able to contribute next season. P3 right winger E.Fehr (3pts) looks like he could reach his potential any day now, but his time is quickly running out. Which leaves the three p2s with the most potential to impact the Lost Boys' fortunes, if only down the line, in defensemen T.Wishart (0pts) in San Jose and I.Vishnevskiy (0pts) in Dallas. The gem of the collection is Bruins p2 goalie T.Rask (0pts) who is ranked #14 in the Hockey News' future watch.

Prospect Draft: One area where the Lost Boys did not accumulated futures was the 2007 Prospect Draft. The Lost Boys are down their own first and fourth picks and have no picks from anyone else. The only reason some of the potential dropped prospcts may get another shot with the team is the concern that they may be the best players available given their poor draft picks.

RFAs: With no less than 16 rfas, by far the most of any team in the FunHL, the Lost Boys are gearing up for a lot of tough decisions on draft day and, they hope, a lot of steals. The list is lead by two ageless wonders in lw A.Brunette (83pts) and c R.Brindamour (82pts). Both will likely see their production drop next year but should be matched unless the bids are too high. Similarly, c S.Koivu (75pts) and rw J.Langenbrunner (60pts) can be servicable additions if they are not overbid on by other GMs. Neither will likely go on a tear but, barring injury, should be able to repeat their production. In goal the Lost Boys have snapped up a pair of Sharks in E.Nabokov (79.17pts) and V.Toskala (58.91pts), though it is possible only one remains with San Jose next season he will be a great number one pick and should be matched regardless of when he's bid upon.

Amongst the remaining forwards there will be some tough calls. There is rw S.Walker (51pts) who will be hard pressed to increase his production, lw M.Rucinsky (33pts) who prorates out to 52pts but may not have another big year in him while rw Jason Williams (32pts) had a very disappointing season in Detroit. Williams may be worth matching with a late pick in the hopes that he could surprise but only as a fourth-liner. Another disappointing rw rfa is A.Carter (28pts) who, with the right line-mates, has shown he is capable of putting up decent numbers but who may have worn out his welcome with the Lost Boys. The sleeper forward for the Lost Boys may be lw A.Kotalik (38pts). His numbers prorate out to 47pts which would still be a notable drop from his 62pt season last year but the young winger is big, strong and has a nose for the net. Any reasonable bid ought to be matched as he has the potential to have a real breakout season.

On defense, the Lost Boys could field a solid corps with only a few additions to this group. M.Rozsival (40pts) and R.Hamrlik (38pts) are very dressable and D.Morris (25pts +28.75 tg pts) has number 6 offensive numbers with top end toughness. P.Nummelin (20pts) is a 35-year old rookie and while he prorates out to 32pts, there are probably better options available. One of those options might be M.Michalek (28pts) who just completed his 2nd full season, he's young and talented and should eclipse his totals next year with a presumably improved Coyotes squad.

Overall: The Lost Boys are looking to improve in their second season and seem well positioned to do so. They had a solid draft their first time out and, so long as they are judicious in matching their large collection of rfas, seem likely to draft an even stronger team their next time out. The pieces are in place for a very solid performance next year so the key will be living up to the heightened expectations. They will - and then some.

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