4/18/2007

Season in Review: The Scourge

The Scourge entered the FunHL at almost the last moment but turned in a very respectable rookie season. They avoided the dreaded Herbivore Trophy and were in the hunt for the Omnivore Award, for most improved team, right up until the final week. Having gotten a taste of FunHL action however, do not expect the Scourge to be satisfied with being an also ran. From very early on the team's management identified the need to build the franchise up and that process will continue this season. Do not expect the Scourge to compete for the Predator Cup this season, there is still a lot of work to be done, but do expect the foundation for a future championship run to be laid with th3 2007 draft.

FPs: The Scourge inherited c M.Sundin (76pts) and lw A.Tanguay (81pts) from the Dogs and chose not to make any quick decisions on replacing either on draft day, probably a prudent decision. Sundin finished the season as the 18th best center and Tanguay as the 7th best left winger. Neither was horrible but neither set the world on fire. Of the two, the most urgent to replace is Sundin. Tanguay is younger, at 28, and after a slow start actually set a career high for pts. While unlikely to become truly an elite player, being a left winger helps and given the challenges of replacing two FPs at the same time probably makes it a no-brainer to keep Tanguay, if only for the moment. By contrast, Sundin is 36 years old and hasn't had more than 80pts in 8 years. There is not an obvious replacement in the system so the best plan would be to aim for as high an entry draft pick as possible and replace Sundin on draft day. If Sundin could be dealt for another FP, it would certainly be worth looking at but it would be hard to conjure up the scenario that would make such a trade work.

Draft: Well, the Scourge were awful at the draft table. Their Omnivore baseline of under 830pts was over 40pts back of the second worst team coming out of the draft and over 100pts back of the third worst team - this is a huge hole to have to dig oneself up from. The top four picks for the Scourge: P.Datsyuk (87pts), T.Selanne (94pts), S.Samsonov (26pts) and T.Vokoun (69.40pts) involved only one truly suspect selection - Samsonov - but Datsyuk's slow start and Vokoun's injury troubles sapped the strength from the Scourge draft right at the start. Other than Tanguay, the Scourge didn't draft a left winger who scored over 30pts and the second highest scoring right winger, other than Selanne, was E.Cole (61pts - though it would have prorated out to 70pts had he been uninjured). Defense was the source of most disappointment with only one player getting more than 40 points for his offense, T.Poti (44pts), but was also the source of one of the Scourge's best selections, T.Preissing who went +40 for 80pts as a plus-minus defenseman.

Moving forward: The Scourge need to keep it up. The interest and knowledge is clearly there and, as evidenced by the flury of trades near the deadline to help escape last place, the ability to improve the team on the trade front is an achievable goal. The challenge is to move from afterthought to contender and that will take a concerted effort over a couple of more drafts so far as upgrading FPs and top-ranked prospects.

FPs: There isn't much more to say about the Scourge's FPs other than to restate that they need to improve - especially Sundin. There do not appear to be any obvious FP-candidates among the Scourge's prospect collection so this will be the case where they need some luck in the draft lottery to get a high ED slot and a shot at one of the top potential FPs (preferably Lecavalier or Spezza) though given the trajectory of Sundin's production, even a later round pick would probably still make a replacement the right call.

Prospects: The Scourge end the season with four p3s and two p2s. The most potentially impactful next season may well be p3 g M.Biron (32.37pts), now a Flyer. Philly was awful last season and needed a goaltender badly, they now have one and will probably play him a lot. As a p3, the Scourge can see where this goes but they may have a diamond in the rough with this guy. Right winger J.Stumpel (57pts) is another p3 who may be able to pay immediate dividends for the Scourge next season but don't expect him to set the world on fire. At 35 years of age, the only reason to hold on to him is that he does provide some security in the event of injury. That said, we have seen his best and he is a decade removed from his 79pt career high. The two p3 defensemen however, Chicago's C.Barker (8pts) and the Ranger's F.Tyutin (14pts) are potentially capable of surprising and, since you can never have too much defense, I would expect the Scourge to ride these two prospects for one more season.

The two returning p2s are both potentially high-impact players but are, in their own way, potential non-factors because of where they are. The veteran, A.Morozov (0pts) is the property of the Penguins but is plying his trade in Russia - and is setting the league on fire - unfortunately for the Scourge he may simply continue to play there as he is allowed to be the big fish in the small pond that he seems to relish and, besides, they are paying him like a king. B.Pouliot (0pts) is in Minnesota and while Gaborik and company are getting more and more opportunity to open up their play, they are still focused on defense first which may prevent Pouliot from hitting the statistical highs he might somewhere else.

Prospect picks: The Scourge have all of their picks (2nd highest in every round) and an extra pick, from the Wolves, in the 3rd round. With the Severed Heads' planning on taking Tavares, the Scourge will have their pick of the 2007 litter. Expect them to take P.Kane, presumptively with Chicago, in the hopes that he may make the squad right out of training camp - which, at almost 19 years old, is a real possibility.

RFAs: Left winger J.Blake (69pts) had a breakout year but may not be able to repeat at 34 years of age. If anyone bids on him to do better than this season's totals, the Scourge should let him go. Center M.Sillinger (59pts) is another player that really is pointing about as well as can be expected and really isn't going to get any better at 36 years of age. Right winger M.Erat (57pts) is a different proposition. He's 26 years old, had a career breakout season - which would have prorated out to 69pts had he not been injured - and is loved by Nashville coach B.Trotz. The question is whether or not he can continue to be a top 6 forward on a Nashville team bristling with talented players all wanting ice-time but if he can be matched for the right price, there may be more to be had from this well.

The Scourge also have a trio of rfa defensemen, most interestingly Islander T.Poti (44pts). Poti had his second highest point total ever and began to score at an increasing rate as the season wore on - over the last 7 weeks he was pointing at a 70+pt clip! He's not that good but with Bergeron taking some of the pressure off him, he's able to be a solid producer and would be a steal if he were matched in the 6th or later rounds. K.Foster (23pts) and R.Regher (21pts) are both servicable d-men but if either are needed to be relied upon in your top six, your team may not be that good. Foster is only 25 years old and may have some upside and Regher, perhaps the best NHLer ever to hail from Brazil, at 27 years old may also have some potential to improve but the Scourge should only look at these two as a 7th and 8th defenseman, and then only if better options have disappeared.

Overall: An excellent first effort for the Scourge but the team needs to strive to improve in all aspects of the pool: upgrading assets, more judicious drafting and more proactive trading. Fighting to avoid last place made it easy for the Scourge to trade near the deadline as GMs were calling them with offers - the Scourge hope not to be at the bottom next season and that will require more efforts to improve via trades before the deadline and, hopefully, without the need to part with so many futures.

No comments: