4/18/2007

Season in Review: The Severed Heads

The Severed Heads had, in the end, a disappointing season finishing 9th overall (though the official stats, when they come out may move them ahead of the Ramapithicines into 8th). Things looked very promising on draft day with the first overall pick, an elite rfa and two solid FPs but the team was never able to pull it all together and was never higher than 5th in the overall standings. The team was beset by injuries and that hampered the effort but ultimately the mid-round drafting, particularly on defense, proved too much to overcome. The good news for the Severed Heads and their fans was the the future looks very promising indeed as a result of a flury of trades involving futures (both prospects and picks).

FPs: The Severed Heads started and finished the season with the same two FPs, Jaromir Jagr (96pts) and Danny Heatley (105pts). Both players were elite performers with Jagr finishing 2nd among right wingers and Heatley finishing 1st among left wingers. The only potential concern has to do with Jagr's age, not that he is showing any signs of slowing down, and that concern has now been addressed with the acquisition of prospect E.Malkin (85pts) who is anticipated to become Jagr's replacement when Malkin's short-term contract expires.

Draft: The Severed Heads were in the cat-bird's seat on draft day with the first overall selection in M.Kiprusoff (113.42pts) and, consequently, the last pick in the 2nd round with which to match rfa J.Spezza (87pts - on pace for an uninjured 106pts). They had, according to the Omnivore baseline, the fifth best team coming out of the ED with 994.85pts. The final two selections among the Severed Head's first four were P.Bergeron (70pts) and K.Tkachuk (58pts +31.5 tg pts), solid but there were arguably better selections available - most notably fellow Bruin c M.Savard (96pts) selected over a round after Bergeron. The most devestating part of the draft for the Severed Heads was on defence. Only one defenseman, R.Blake (34pts) selected in the 5th round, ended up with more than 30pts. There were certainly some bright spots in the draft for the Severed Heads, most notably the selection of K.Huselius (77pts) matched in the 12th round. There was also the selection of an instant-impact prospect in the PrD, P.Stastny (78pts).

Moving forward: The Severed Heads, like all FunHL teams, have the goal of winning the Predator Cup but experience has taught the Heads that you need to get yourself into a position to win. They felt that they were in that position last season but injuries and a weak draft hurt them. Entering this season, the Severed Heads have retooled once again and may be in their best position to make a run in years, certainly they hope so.

FPs: In Heatley and Jagr the Severed Heads have two of the top players at their respective positions in the league. There really isn't much room to improve. With Malkin in the wings, Jagr's replacement is set and the issue becomes how best to maximize Jagr's value when that replacement is set to occur (in Malkin's rfa year, 2009). Jagr will be 37 at that point but if the current obstruction standard continues to that point, there is no reason to expect that he will not still have considerable value. The Severed Heads look to be well positioned as far as FPs are concerned for the forseeable future.

Prospects: E.Malkin (85pts), p3 c, is the only obvious candidate to make the Severed Head roster next season but there are a bevy of other high-end prospects that potentially could power a Cup run next year. No less than three of the Severed Head p2s are on the Hockey News's list of top prospects in their Future Watch. Leading the list is Washington p2 c, N.Backstrom at #3. The dream scenario has him as A.Ovechkin's pivot but centering A.Semin against the second-tiered checking assignments isn't to shabby either for the Swedish star. At #11 on the Hockey News' list is Anaheim's budding power forward p2 rw B.Ryan. There is simply nothing left for this kid to do but hit the NHL and everyone in it, power forwards take more time to develop but he should be worth the wait. At #19 on the list is Florida's M.Frolik. Again, he has the potential to be a great winger for the Severed Heads and may even be able to make an impact this season though playing for J.Martin's Panthers, he may not develop as quickly as the Heads might like.

The next trio are more likely to pay dividends down the road or as trade fodder for a run this year, though the tallent involved is all top end. The only defensive prospect in the mix is Ottawa's p2 d B.Lee, #52 on the Hockey News' list. He will be a good one but time is the issue as it always is with defensemen. Expected to be a top 10 pick in this year's NHL entry draft is p2 c L.Couture. His stock has fallen a bit since last year when he was seen as a potential number one selection. By the Severed Heads' own FP-potential draft standards (the top two forwards taken in the NHL entry draft where a defenseman doesn't go first) he will probably not be the elite level player that was hoped for when he was selected but he certainly has the ability to contribute in a year or two. The enigma of the mix is Edmonton c p3 R.Schremp. He has fallen off the map as far as the Hockey News is concerned and continues to fall on the Oiler's depth chart. The talent is there but the commitment to excellence may not be. He would be worth sitting on, given his considerable natural skill, but as he is a center on a Severed Heads team that has several - do not be surprised to see him moved.

Prospect picks: One of the key acquisitions as the Heads sold off their present for futures near the trade deadline was the Edge's 1st round prospect pick, 1st overall. Its the only pick they have in the first two rounds but the expectation is that they will invest in a long-term proposition and select Oshawa teenage sensation J.Tavaras. Not eligible until the 2009 NHL entry draft, he would already be a p3 as he entered his rookie season. It is a strategy that has worked in the past for the Highlanders who selected S.Crosby as a 16-year old and, given that Tavaras just broke Gretzky's OHL record for goals by a 16-year old, its not a bad pick for someone widely expected to become a future FunHL FP.

RFAs: None of the Severed Head rfas tallied 40 or more points, rw T.Ruutu (38pts) was tops, and that probably gives GM Hilton the opportunity to hold on to a couple of his players at a reasonable, and potentially highly discounted, cost. Ruutu, if he can ever remain healthy, is a top-end talent. d J.Corvo (37pts) is getting increasing offensive opportunities in Ottawa. After such great expectations before the season, rw N.Zherdev (32pts) was an utter disappointment. He could get 90pts or remain in Hitchcock's doghouse for another season, expect the Heads to match any reasonable bid for Zherdev's services and hope he can put it all together.

In d-men P.Ranger (28pts), B.Pothier (28pts) and D.Hamhuis (20pts) the Severed Heads have some insurance value for a team that always seems to need help on defense. All three would have made the team's Omnivore baseline coming out of last season's ED, indeed only R.Blake (34pts) would have outscored Ranger and Pothier. That said, with the possible departure of K.Timmonen from Nashville expect Hamhuis to make the biggest jump in points. Some guides had him tabbed as a 40pt player going into last season, he may hit that mark this season. The final two rfas, g M.Denis (31.77pts) and c E.Lindros (26pts) will not be matched if bid upon though GM Hilton has a soft spot for Lindros and may well draft him in the last round only to waive him when promoting Malkin.

Overall: Expect an even stronger draft from the Severed Heads next season as they attempt to avoid a repeat of the defensive misfires they had this season. With Jagr, Heatley and Malkin as a base, the Severed Heads look poised to make a concerted run at the Cup in 07-08.

1 comment:

Cameron said...

Nicely done. On the money throughout, especially;

- John Tavares as our likely top pick at the PRD

- Lindros as the teams 4th line centre to be dropped as we promote Malkin

- The horrific D-corps Heads' mgt drafted and the way it submarined the season.