It's been a while since I did one of these, but here goes!
- I know others have pointed this out already but this season is by far the most competitive I can recall. Ever. Three teams going down to the wire? It's been a long, long time since that happened. If I recall correctly the last time we had this kind of dogfight going into the final three weeks was prior to expansion, and Dan was doing the stats in between classes at Med School. Seriously.
-Along with that dynamic is how compressed all the teams are. Doug pointed this out in a comment earlier but the gap between first and last is smaller than the gap has been between 1st and 4th in previous years. Let that sink in.
- This compression of teams has also had an effect on trades. Teams aren't 'selling off'' as they have in past seasons because they had every reason to believe they were competitive. Further factor in that Colin has put the Edge on a mission to finish in the top half (making him a buyer rather than a seller) and you skew how players move even further.
- Speaking of the Edge, have you noticed that;
A. The team is now built on Ovechkin and Thornton, currently #1 and #3 in scoring - and the top goal scorer and the top playmaker in the league.
Let THAT sink in for a minute.
Gone are the days when we'd review the Edge and suggest that Elias was a serviceable #1 LW but that the teams FPs lacked top end power. Now he's got a 60 goal scorer AND a guy who could get 80+ assists. Worse, Ovechkin has 10 years left on his odometer at least, and is still getting better, while Thornton is in the middle of his prime. Sick.
B. Of all the teams in the league, right now his might well be the hottest. If not for a brutal draft to start the year (an Omnivore baseline of 731 is 2nd worst only to Bob's 709) his team would be among the leaders.
C. The teams Achilles heel this season was clearly goaltending. If they had started with a genuine top end netminder they'd be another 40+ pts ahead of where they are.
The bottom line is this, the Edge have now got the best 1-2 punch at Franchise player in the league, and with Brodeur, Jagr and Pronger all well into their 30's and on thin ice moving forward, the Edge have to be considered the favourites coming out of the gate next year.
- If the Bladerunners lose this year, they have only the GM's in season moves to blame. The Bladerunners began the year with the best drafted team, but have managed to post a negative Omnivore score and still remain competitive. If the Bladerunner's GM were even 3rd or 4th in the Omnivore race they'd be the clear leader and threatening to run away with it.
- Gotta hand it to the Wolves. They are peaking in all three races and the result is they are the league's only threats to win the Triple Crown. Without a doubt, this is their best season ever - even if ultimately they don't win anything.
- Each of the top three teams are riding some different horses down the stretch. Here's my thumbnail sketch of which teams factor in the most for whom. In each case I list the importance of the team first. So for example, in the case of the Bladerunners a scoring surge by Tampa benefits them more than anyone else, followed by a Dallas scoring surge, etc.
Bladerunners: Tampa, Dallas, Boston, Pittsburgh, Philadelphia (barely) and Anaheim's goalie (though he also has Miller in Buffalo as a judgment call).
Wolves: Montreal, Vancouver, Philadelphia, Ottawa, and New Jersey goaltending. Lots of single stars dotted throughout the landscape with Gaborik being the most notable.
Severed Heads: Pittsburgh, Toronto, Anaheim, Columbus, Rangers, Ottawa, and San Jose's goaltending. Forsberg is the sole Avalanche, and while Ottawa is listed as a factor, Only Heatley is currently healthy as Neil is down indefinitely.
What does this all mean? Well, Boston had five games this week, and the big fear Rob and I were dealing with was 'what if Savard and Sturm go crazy'? The good news has been that three shutouts of Boston later, Brian is actually suffering for not capitalizing on his team dominance. With Montreal screaming hot lately, the Wolves have seen a concurrent surge in the standings.
Even more interesting is when you get one of your dominant teams facing your goaltender because this is what mixed emotions are made of.
- Here's something to think about for a moment, of the NHL's top 20 scorers, only 8 are franchise players; Ovechkin, Thornton, Iginla, Spezza, Kovalchuk, Zetterberg, Heatley and Gaborik.
- Of the top 20 D-men in scoring, just three are FP's (Lidstrom #1, Chara #5+112PIM, and Pronger #11+124PIM)
- Of the top 10 goaltenders, #1 and #2 are Hasek and Osgood - which means that unless you are incredibly good at picking which one is going to get the bulk of the workload in any given week, neither is actually good enough to start.
Brodeur is #3, Giguere is #5, Nabokov is #6, Lunogo #7, Turco #8, Legace is #9, and Jose Theodore is #10.
Which leaves FP Lundqvist on the outside looking in - though he would get the nod for FUNHL goalie scoring because of games played.
Pascal Leclaire is the name missing from the ranks at #4, and strikes me as a likely mid-round pick once the more obvious candidates are taken, but how seriously can we take his numbers?
How seriously can we take Legace's or Theodore's numbers?
More to the point, where is Kipprusoff? (#26)
S'all for now
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3 comments:
While GAA is all well and good, it seems more appropriate to rate goalies based on Funhl scoring, by which the following all score above current scoring leader Alexander Ovechkin:
1 Martin Brodeur, NJ
2 Evgeni Nabokov, SJ
3 Roberto Luongo, VAN
4 Henrik Lundqvist, NYR
5 Manny Legace, STL
6 J. Giguere, ANH
7 Ryan Miller, BUF
and only the top 3 exceed 100 pts.
For accuracy sake, the first paragraph is correct except it was a joint stats venture between Bob and I between med school classes to track the minute changes down to the wire.
I think the minute that we look at the way FUNHL goalies rank against the rest of the league it becomes pretty clear that goalie stats need to be adjusted back.
It's painful, but when Manny Legace, the goaltender for the league's worst team is in the 5 in scoring, and when the top 7 players are all goaltenders its an indication that something is wrong.
Legace isn't even being dressed as far as I know - which is about as damning as it gets.
My recommendation to the stats people/RC will be to move the standard for goaltenders back to 3.5 (barring a complete off-season review of the stats of course).
Seems probable - if we do that with current stats, 2 goalies fall among the top ten scoring which seems a suitable proportion
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