3/17/2008

News and Notes

- Did you know that Wolves FP Marian Gaborik has never scored more than 38 goals in a season?

- Since Crosby went down with his high ankle sprain 23 games ago, Malkin has registered a cool 40 points.

- The decision by the Great Whites to invest in Carey Price has a series of historical overtones;

A: The Great Whites - almost from infancy, were big fans of les Canadiens, and Ken Dryden. There is no doubt in my mind that Dan has already pictured himself being awarded and then wearing a Carey jersey.

B: Canadiens' Goaltender (and current 'best goalie ever' title holder) was the teams first ever FUNHL pick, and he lead the GW's to their first Predator Cup.

C: The GW's made Brodeur (the next 'best goalie ever' title holder) their first ever Franchise player selection, and he remained a cornerstone of the team until this year.

- Sam Gagner was an utterly inspired call to dress last week for the Bladerunners as he went ballistic recording 6 points in three games. He appears to have permanently relegated McDonald to the bench, and more and more he looks like the Marc Savard clone he was advertised as.

- More good news for the Bladerunners is Steve Stamkos' rating as the top draft prospect for the 08-09 draft. With his speed, shot and he's got 'Alexandre Daigle' written all over him. ;-)

- The last time the Bladerunners had two centre prospects with so much promise was when Eric Staal and Evgeni Malkin were picked in consecutive years.

- Which hints at why the Bladerunners are routinely so competitive - they have a formulae;

A. Trade for top prospect picks each year. Both Staal and Malkin were top 3 picks in their respective prospect drafts.

B. Correctly identify and draft the elite offensive talent. (this is in contrast to the Severed Heads who once used the first overall prospect pick to take Dan Cleary-L Chi. Mega. Bust.)

C. Trade the elite prospects late in the year for a package of players to fuel the stretch drive

which leads me to the surprising conclusion;

D. Never replace an FP from within! Elite prospects - even FP quality prospects - bring more in trade value during a stretch drive than they will as players. (I call this the 'Malkin-Schmalkin' theory)

Based on this formulae, we can expect that neither Gagner nor Stamkos will be a long term Bladerunner.

- It seems unlikely to me that any of the top teams will go over the magic 1000 points this year.

- I know this won't be a popular opinion with some, but I believe goaltending stats are way out of whack again. Yes, the lockout saw a slight rise in scoring, but it has dipped back down to pre-lockout levels.

Here is the scoring for top ten goaltenders:

Nabokov 129.03
Brodeur 123.95
Luongo 108.99
Lundqvist 106.47
Giguere 102.85
Miller 97.92
Leclaire 94.64
Turco 94.6
Legace 94.2
Bryzgalov 93.48

Now consider that we currently only have two non-goaltenders, Ovechkin (99) and Malkin (97), who have even reached 90 points yet. Hmmm. Does it seem right to you that Ovechkin is only the 7th best player in the league? Does it seem right to you that Bryzgalov will go over 100 points as the goaltender for Phoenix, or that career back-up Manny Legace is a 100 point player in league worst St Louis?

Here is what the top 10 goaltenders look like if we use 3.5 instead;

Nabokov 94.53
Brodeur 90.45
Luongo 77.49
Giguere 75.35
Lundqvist 74.97
Turco 67.1
Leclaire 66.56
Bryzgalov 64.98
Legace 64.2
Miller 63.92

Ovechkin's 99 points now leads the league, and Malkin's 97 is #2 - which given the fact they are the leaders in MVP talk seems to me to be more appropriate.

Nabokov and Brodeur (it's always Brodeur) are still having outstanding seasons and would still be #3 and #4 in league scoring - but would no longer be 23-30 points ahead of Ovechkin.

I'd like to think that these stats speak for themselves at this point, but I look forward to any critics who wish to make the case that 4.0 is still the superior stat.

- In no particular order, here's my short list for future Franchise Player candidates;

Crosby* (Highlanders)

Malkin* (Severed Heads)

Phaneuf* (Wolves)

Lecavalier

Nabokov (with Kipper's GAA ballooning Nabby's now the top goalie available)

Nash (using the Cameron Theory of FP drafting, Nash as the top forward in his draft year has a 75% chance of reaching elite player status)

1 comment:

Red Five said...

Nice observations on the GW's - and pretty damn accurate too...

The Bladerunners formula is interesting, but one would think it would peter out from self-drainage over time...

As for the goalie stats, as one strongly invested in goaltending historically and currently (FP and P1), I in fact agree the stats do speak for themselves, and only every team turning into the Sabres in the last few weeks would change that, so I suspect a decline to 3.5 is in the cards.

Lecavalier should have been made an FP long ago - not sure when his expiry date is though...

While the Edge and GWs have watched painfully as Nash finally put together the kind of season he was supposed to have consistently (not just once upon a time), his lack of consistency should strike some fear into GMs considering him for FP material.

That being said, the future PP quarterback in offensively loaded Pittsburgh seems a likely FP choice. The only questions are:
- When does it stop being Gonchar?
- Who is the heir apparent?
GWs would love to see Whitney step into that role, but how long does one wait for that train?

Time will tell...