1/15/2008

Should the Flames trade Dion Phaneuf?!?

Matt Fenwick over at the Battle of Alberta has an awesome breakdown of the options the Flames have with stud D-man Dion Phaneuf.

Everybody assumes the first and best option is to bite the financial bullet, sign him to a long term deal, and work out whether you can afford Huselius or Langkow later.

But what is the potential if the Flames trade Dion?

More interestingly, what if the Flames don't match an offer for him, and take four first round picks coming back?

Matt does a fascinating breakdown of four NHL drafts worth of players could have looked like in the past, and in some cases (a higher percentage than you might think) there would have been cause for delerious joy at the outcome.

Consider, if the Flames let Dion sign with the Capitals and got back; Perezhogin, Eminger, Fehr and Ovechkin, is there any sane person who would suggest we lost that deal? Or how about; Armstrong, Whitney, Horton and Malkin? I'd be screaming BINGO!

On the other hand, it's worth noting that in some scenarios we get; Foster, Paille, Belle and Kaspar. Or, Blackburn, Nystrom, Jessiman and Montoya. Oh God. That's the kind of return that would kill a franchise.

Here's how Matt tallies it up (I think he is being generous as far as assessing the return in some cases so his numbers are a tad higher than they would be for me);

  • In at least 4 cases (Kovalchuk, Nash, Spezza, Ovechkin) and possibly 7 (add Getzlaf, E. Staal, Malkin), the Flames would get one player who alone would make it worth it.
  • In 18 of 30 cases, the Flames would get 4 players who, as a group, would make it worth it.
  • In 7 more cases (25 of 30), the Flames would at least get enough not to rue the day they let Phaneuf go.
  • In 5 cases, it would be a definite loss, although even here, only a couple would qualify as total disasters.
Tom Benjamin (that curmudgeon) has a grumbling dissent on the thesis, with his main contention being that you have to wait several years for the talent to emerge from those drafts and in the meantime you've lost 5+ years of Dion wreaking havoc on opponents.

All in all, likely the best hockey read you'll have today.

1 comment:

Bladerunner said...

The options are keep him, keep him or keep him.