12/20/2010

FUNHL News and Notes

- Daily stats are a luxury not a necessity. Not only does Doug have nothing to apologize for, we should all be ritually humbling ourselves at his feet that he provides this service to us. Yes, the stats guy gets a break on his entrance fee, but weekly updates would be all that is necessary to make things work - and our guy is giving us 7 times that expectation. So tip of the hat to Doug.

- A week ago I was commenting to Bob that I thought there were some patterns developing in the standings. Specifically that a group of 4 looked like it was breaking away from the main group; the Bladerunners, Personal Vendetta, Scourge and Severed Heads. Fast forward to the present and the Bladerunners have a sudden crash and burn like Cybill Sheppard's acting career after Moonlighting, to fall from 1st - where they had been for several weeks running, all the way to 4th - and only 8 points out of 5th where a charging Shadowmen team finds itself.

The Personal Vendetta - who had been in 2nd - and 20+pts or so ahead of 3rd, are now in 1st, but the teams in 2nd and 3rd (Scourge and Severed Heads) are now only 13-15pts back.

With that much volatility, and that little spread between teams, its still a free-for-all.

- Last year the +/- bus was filled with Caps and Chi-Hawks, this year its Philly and Pittsburgh.

- Last year the Severed Heads were heavily invested in Philly (Richards, Hartnell, Briere, Timonen, Emery) and Pittsburgh (Malkin, Letang, Guerin), and bombed worse than the latest remake of 'the Wolfman'. Aside from Emery and Guerin, last year the Heads actually had an awesome draft, it was just in the wrong year. It seems my problem isn't at the draft table, its in not having time travel!

- Bob and I were debating this question the other night, who would you prefer as an FP; Toews or Erik Staal? I initially went with Toews, but its hard to make that case when Staal has already had a 100pt season, and Toews has never had a ppg season.

- Calgary is now faced with the raw truth that they are not a playoff team anymore. Eric Francis at the Calgary Sun has openly started cheering for the Flames to do a complete rebuild, and pretty much everybody from Ken King on down appears to have their head on the chopping block.

So here's the facts, Jack;

- Lots of no-movement/trade clauses on this team. Including everybody's favourite scapegoat Olli Jokinen.

- The farm system is getting better (Howse, Nemisz, Wahl, Brodie), but lacks a sure-fire top 6 forward, a heavy minute top pairing D-man, or a possible future starting goaltender.

- Michael Backland, the Flames top offensive prospect, still can't crack a top line, and still hasn't shown more than flashes of high-end skill.

- Two words; Kotalik and Staios. Cap killing contracts both, and virtually zero production.

- The in the first 3 rounds of next years draft the Flames only have their 1st rnd pick.

- The Flames two best players, Iggy and Kipper are both over 33, have no-movement clauses, and high price tags with years left on them.

- If you trade Iginla for anything less than a top prospect/young player/pkg of 1st round picks, the fans will blow their brains out at losing the face of the franchise. They likely will anyway, but why make it worse than necessary?

In other words, an intelligent and planned out full rebuild is the only way to go, and if it were up to me, given the piss-poor return on Phaneuf futures wise, neither Sutter would be involved in the overhaul.

My suggestions;

See if you can get Philly to bite on Kiprusoff and Backland for vanRiemsdyk and Carter.

- Speaking of rebuild time, the Devils could finally consider trading Brodeur. Brodeur is 38, the defense in front of him is fatally ill and won't recover without major surgery, they are out of the playoffs, a mess with cap management, and devoid of above average prospects in the pipeline - especially in goal.

I'm sure Washington can put together a package of players (one or more of; Varlamov, Neuwirth, Carlson, Schultz, or because he is due a very big payday Mike Green) prospects (Johansson, Kuznetsov, Galiev or Perrault) and picks to make it work for everybody.

- That sound you just heard was Malkin going supernova on the Coyotes to the tune of 2g and 3a. With 8 points in his last three games (5 goals), Malkin's return from the DTD IR to offensive superstar status couldn't come at a better time for the Severed Heads.

- What else can you say about Crosby though? Despite the fact Malkin was dinged up and dragging himself around the ice like the Penguins own version of 'the Walking Dead' for 25 games before sitting out completely, or that his wingmen are the ghosts of Kris Kontos and Blaine Stoughton, but the minute Steve Stamkos started getting talked about as the next 50/50 guy Crosby still went full Keyser Soze on everyone. With a healthy Malkin back on the powerplay, how high can Crosby climb?

- I told Bob a few weeks back that I wasn't as scared of the Bladerunners as I was of the PV this year. When Bob asked me why I pointed out that the Bladerunners were relying on a third line of two Bluejackets and Brandon 'Doober' Dubinsky, and that unless the two Bluejackets were both named 'Rick Nash' the Bladerunners simply weren't going to keep outscoring everyone.

In contrast, the PV are running out a 3rd line of Morrow, Plekanec and Downie - a trio that can really put the hurt on you.

- I would still make the trade again today if it presented itself, but it broke my heart to deal Taylor Hall.

- Who is the better candidate to be an FP; John Tavares or Carey Price?

- Our 1st place team, the PV, flushed two goalies at waiver draft-1 and are now banking on Jaroslav 'Bryan Hayward' Halak to get them the rest of the way. I can't decide which of those two things I think was more unlikely at the start of the year.

- If anyone stands in the way of Hall winning ROY, it's his former Windsor Spitfire team mate Cam Fowler. Fowler has been everything as advertised and beyond as an 18 years old, and is playing exceptionally heavy minutes as a rookie for the defense strapped Ducks.

- The other sweet ROY candidate is defenseman Colorado defenseman Kevin Shattenkirk.

- Here's a brain buster trivia question; what former 5th overall pick has represented Canada at an Olympics, World Cup and three World Championships, but has only 201 points in 701 NHL games and has never had a 30 point season?

- The problem I have with Zenon Konopka is that he is a center, and his pure goon act has to compete with players more likely to score than 3rd liners at either wing or depth defensemen. As a pure goon who racks up PIM by getting into fights his production tends to be erratic (only 7pim in his last 10 games) and pretty much non existent outside of fighting (he has 2 pts in his last 10 games to bring him to a grand total of 4 on the season). Sure he can and likely will explode for some big minute games where he fights a couple of times and then misconducts himself out, but in every other week you dress him you are going to get murdered by even a below average 3rd line pivot you could be dressing instead. In short he's almost practically my definition of low reward/high risk.

- Considering the depth they have on defense (Chara, Keith, Campbell, Suter and Del Zotto P2), I think its only a matter of time before the Knuckledrggers move a defender to shore up a RW (Hossa, Selanne, Williams, and Bouchard) that has been all but obliterated by injuries. Part of the problem in doing so may be that the market for a RW doesn't have many sellers at the moment.

- I have to admit to being puzzled by the Omnivore scores. How is it that the Edge - a team that has made few trades, already have a score that is sinking below -50? Are +/- decisions to blame?

- How awesome a season is Dustin Byfuglien having playing defense in Atlanta? He now has 33 points in 34 games. Even out of position at RW in the FUNHL, that represents impressive production from the hulking Thrasher. Is it too early to predict Big Buff is going to be a first round pick as a defenseman next year?

- Milan Lucic is earning some of his Cam Neely Clone moniker by lighting it up at a 40 goal+PIM per game pace so far.

- Last but not least, Happy Festivus everyone!

6 comments:

Moriarty said...

Cameron,

I don't think I could've said it better myself, though I do think that you are in a good position to make a run at first and hold on to it, whereas I will make my charge and then whimper back due to injury. Of course, don't underestimate Brian's ability to trade unlike either Darrell's or Chris' reticence or caution.

And of course I would keep Staal as an FP over Toews and my current work of the year candidate is Shattenkirk of Colorado on defense followed by Cam Fowler and then maybe a tie between Eberle, Skinner, and Hall.

As for NJ trading Brodeur, I doubt that will happen as I think he will probably retire next year or, if they do in fact trade him to Washington for a package in a dream trade, the scenario is intriguing. I do not believe Philly will ever trade Carter to Calgary. Sorry, no dice. Calgary is not that creative. Look what they traded Phaneuf for and you`ll see they`re not that creative. I believe that this season should be the end of the Sutter brother`s rule in Calgary. Especially when they do not make the playoffs this year.

While I like your team, Cam, don`t get cocky and don`t underestimate Brian.

Cameron said...

Can't get cocky, I'm still only in 3rd!

My main point wasn't to dismiss the Bladerunners, but to honestly assess why they weren't making me reel with dread the way the PV do.

As I mentioned the spread from 1-5 is still very small and lots of movement is not only possible, but expected.

That all said, I find it hard not to get excited by Malkin's explosion.

Douglas McLachlan said...

Cam,

I too would do the Hall trade again though that has as much to do with where I think he will end up as the fact that Getzlaf has not produced the toughness I had hoped for. Now if only I could have gotten you to take Makarov instead of Rafalski...

As for your general prospects, I think they are good. A swing of 30pts is very doable with this much time remaining and Geno's ability to explode is legendary. Seriously, what happened with that first goal yesterday - that was sick with Sid's waltz from the dot.

I agree that Calgary needs to tear it down and rebuild but that the decision will be made closer to the deadline. If the playoffs are unatainable then its time to blow things up - I just don't think that will happen, at least not this year. It is nice to see you acknowledge the waste of an asset in terms of return on the Phaneuf trade - my fear is that the Iginla trade may not get as much as you think.

I would think the most Calgary might get would be LA's 1st this year, a reasonable forward prospect like Oscar Moller, and a young, talented roster player such as Wayne Simmonds. This would be a fantastic return for a 33 year old in Iginla but most Calgary fans would think that they got hosed. Personally, I don't think LA would part with both the first AND Simmonds (who may be a young Iginla in is own right) but that's why we are doing what we're doing and not doing something else.

Kipper, the goalie market is very, very soft right now so the thought of getting Van Riemsdyk out of Philly for Kipper is silly - let alone Carter. I think Van Riemsdyk is on the block and Calgary would be an option but they would be looking for a different package - say a Reghr.

Staal over Toews for an FP. Price over Tavares as an FP as well.

Pretty sure that Brodeur retires as a Devil but I think he goes to the well one more time. I expect a Carolina-like second half run from them after Christmas falling short of the playoffs but certainly serving notice that they will be back next season. That said, they probably ought to continue to tank and see if they can snag either Courtier to play with Kovalchuk and Parise or Larrson to shore up their now depleted defense. On that point, who would have though John Oduya was that valuable.

Regarding Collin's Omnivore totals +/- has not been the issue. Matt Duchene has been played for only 21 of his 34pts. Derek Stepan has been played for none of his 19. Bourque was only played for 12 of the 24pts that he has and similarly Byfuglien has only been played for 23 of the 33 pts he could have gotten. Obviously other players were played instead but those benchings, delayed or non-promotions from one's prospect list really can have an effect. Recall a few years ago we decided to include prospects in the baseline as the decision to pull up a Crosby or now a Duchene (though Colln waited until week 7) from one's prospect list is not really an improvement that is made during that year but one made either at this or the previous season's Prospect Draft. I suppose we could artificially give everyone 100 Omnivore pts so all the numbers are positive but essentially the issue is comparing what you had to start with compared with what you can turn that into.

Scourge said...

Bob. Time for you to buy me out

Red Five said...

What, Logan Couture gets no love?

Bladerunner said...

The Bladerunners are really Cam's favorite FUNHL team - you'd never know it over the years but I can read his mind ;-)

Yup - nice dump in the standings. You will see a surprise new person in 1st place today 'I think' (hint - really nice week so far Chris!)

I can't recall either what happened to Cybil Sheppard after moonlighting but hopefully the Bladerunners won't disappear permanently off the map.

Agree with Dan that Couture now in running for ROY, slow start but lots of season still left.

Flames - I love em but want them to get a top pick, and rebuild. The rebuild needs more than some player trades - needs the coach + GM BUT just as importantly - or even more importantly - the President to move aside. All 3 of em need to be gone to change the Flames back to a respectful team.

Good question as to what NJ and the Highlanders do re Brodeur. Bot should probably trade him by season's end or in the off season.

Merry Festivus to the FUNHL gang as well - hope everyone gets some R and R. And time to watch Juniors of course!

cheers

Brian