9/24/2008

Cameron's Completely Biased Prospect Draft Review

In my own preparation for the prospect draft I came to the conclusion that while there were a large number of players I really liked, there wasn't a sure-fire home run selection to be had (which is my explanation for reaching back another year on Hall), nor was there any consensus on who the top pick would/should/could be. I compared the out lines of my list to several GMs over the last few weeks and never got a sense of their being one guy who made everyone's list. I also got the impression that some GMs definitely were holding a name or two back - but it was never the same guys.

The Shadowmen:

Pesonen-L Pit: There were a trio of Euro left wingers, all; overage (23-25), highly skilled (a Swedish Elite league scoring title and the 1st and 2nd in the Finnish Elite League between them), a little undersized (none is over 6ft), and all potentially top six forwards just entering their prime. As it stands Pesonen has made the Penguins, but hasn't as yet cracked the top six. Think Stu Barnes.

Hodgson-C Vcr: Given how starved for talent at forward the Canuck roster is right now, Hodgson may make the team on an energy line and get a turn on the powerplay - and produce enough to be tantalizing but fall just short of being dressable. More likely he'll get bumped back to the AHL to continue his progress in a more or less orderly fashion. He's an average sized gritty playmaker and hustler ala Daymond Langkow.

Purcell-R LA: AHL scoring monster needs to crack a talented young Kings roster to be sucessful. A highly skilled beanpole, Purcell is a late bloomer who may end up producing in a solid offensive role despite the obstacles. A lower case Nieuwendyk, he won't be a checker.

Kindl-D Det: A cut and re-draft, the Shadowmen cagily added a year of development to the rearguard's contract. He's an all-round two way horse ala Roszival, so he may not command even 2nd unit powerplay time - especially on the Wings who are deep with offensive defensemen. Still projected to eventually land a job in the top 4.

Overall draft rating: A. Pesonen is a solid bet to produce a scoring role as soon as this year and the team added other assets besides him. Purcell and Hodgson are solid projections to earn future roles at their positions for their teams (the Cammalleri trade in particular is taylor made to free up ice for prospects like Purcell), and Kindl though clearly still a project, now has another year on him.

The Scourge

Brunnstrom-L Dal: Dallas won a bidding war for Brunnstrom's services - probably the most talented of the 'three dwarves', Dallas is all but compelled to hand him a top six spot. As such, he's the most likely to suceed. A Swedish Martin Straka.

Hornqvist-R Nsh: A slower footed, less experienced version of Brunstrom. May get a shot at the big time because of Radulov's defection to the KHL. Has a big league wristhot, but below average wheels. Think a slower Petr Prucha.

Winchester-R Ott: He's an older (24) forward, having graduated from Colgate. More a two-way player than future offensive force. he lacks both an offensive pedigree, and the time to develop one.

Hickey-D LA: Some critics thought Hickey was undersized for where he was drafted by the Kings, but I bet they don't think so anymore. A quick puck moving defenseman with loads of offensive ability, he merely needs to add some weight and experience to his resume before assuming a prominent spot in LA's top 4 with Doughty, Johnson and Teubert. The new Darryl Sydor.

Overall Rating: B. Brunnstrom was a strong candidate to go first overall, and Hickey is the kind of pure puckmoving defenseman that don't grow on trees anymore. However it would be shocking if either Winchester or Hornqvist survived as prospects past this season.

The Wolves

Bowman-L Car: The Spokane Chief was their top weapon in a march to the Memorial Cup. Unforntunately his game doesn't translate well to the NHL as he lacks the skating gears necessary to compete with the burners. May carve out a niche as a Shane Willis type.

Dupuis-L Pit: Checking winger has the speed to play defensive conscience on a line with Crosby and Satan, and could chip in offensively by osmosis, but he could also be bounced at any time because he lacks the finishing touch to be a reliable top 6 producer. Pittsburgh's version of Paul Ranheim.

Backlund-C Cgy: The talented forward slipped to Calgary because of concerns regarding a knee injury, or he would have been a top 10 pick. Backlund has all the ingredients for a top line center (skill, speed, hands, hockey IQ) except size (he's 6ft even), and with Calgary's lack of depth on the wings vs its number of pivots he may be converted in the short term if he earns a roster spot based on his talent. Otherwise its at least a year in Quad City for Backlund. He's more like Thomas Steen than Alex is.

Schenn, B-C OHL: Unlike his brother Luke, Bradyen is an all-offense, all-the-time forward. Has a big league set of wheels, and despite modest stature, projects well as a top scoring forward. Will get drafted into the NHL after John Tavares and Viktor Hedman - but not long after. Another whirling dervish ala Stamkos.

Stoll-C LA: Injury prone checking center in the mold of Kris Draper, is in mid-career and has already started to break down. Has Hollywood starlet/supermodel wife in LA, so he's got that going for him. Potentially useful only in short bursts as an injury replacement. Explanations for how the same GM that so adroitly picked Schenn could also pick Stoll requires a plot device like an evil twin or teleporter accident. Stoll is Shawn Horcoff without the offensive upside. Exactly.

Wheeler-R Bos: A hulking power winger with raw offensive potential. Skates like the wind. Just needs to put all his tools into the same box and he'll be formidable. If he can unlock the offense he's a potential bulldozer/Bertuzzi like winger, if he can' -t he's the second coming of Shawn Antoski.

Overall Rating: B+, Schenn, Wheeler, Backlund and even Bowman are all very promising prospects, but Stoll and Dupuis aren't likely to be sound long term investments. That all said, 3.5 out of 6 ain't bad at all.

The Knights Templar

Pietrangelo-D StL: Erik Johnson just mangled his knee so their is now ample room to have the swift skating stud Pietrangelo develop on the big team. Has all the tools to be a rock star defender, including big point shot and passing abilities. With Johnson out, Pietrangelo may be the most talented puck rusher on the roster. Could be dressable in the second half of the season.

Overall Rating: A. If you can only add one prospect to your roster in a year, you want it to be a prototype defender like Pietrangelo.

The Personal Vendetta

Sterling-Atl: A 5'7" gunner, he lacks the footspeed to be an effective smurf at the NHL level. Will one day win an AHL scoring title. Mike Comrie without the wheels.

Brule-C Edm: Mike Peca without the scoring, hitting or checking ability. Despite repeated chances, he couldn't crack the lineup in Columbus.

Bogosian-Atl: Almost completely makes up for the first two prospects picked. A big all-purpose defender who can log 20 min, run the powerplay and destroy people in his own zone. Atlanta will be hard pressed to send him down.

Overall Rating: Sterling and Brule aren't likely to contribute, but Bogosian could be a stalwart for years if he makes the roster.

The Lost Boys

Boedker-R Phx: A one touch sniper with terrific wheels and a high hockey IQ. A new Simon Gagne. If he doesn't force his way onto the roster this season (a possibility) expect him to be knocking on the door soon.

Bailey-C NYI: An all round talented pivot, he may be a better fit as a #2-3 when he reaches the FUNHL as he lacks outstanding ability in any one offensive skill, but plays with grit and heart.

Overall Rating: B+. Boedker is a legit bet to be a 40 goalscorer in the future, and Bailey has a good chance at being a useful center for the Islanders sooner rather than later. Not bad at all.

The Edge

Maclean-R Phx: Another high scoring Jr player who lacks the raw speed to play at the next level. Even with his soft hans his chances of making the Coyotes top lines is small, but he could stick around on a checking unit to see if he can get his skating up to par. Was accused of fattening his stats as Tavares' favourite winger. Most likely future is as an AHL goalscoring champion.

Perron-R StL: Undersized winger was a surprise to stick around with the Blues for last year, but proved his mettle by demonstrating speed and offensive flair. While he must be on a scoring line to suceed, Perron has locked down a spot in the teams top 6 forwards moving forward. He lands somewhere between last years Gionta and St Louis.

Kontiola-C Chi: In a dogfight with other prospects (Beach and Bolland) to earn a spot on the 2nd line. Has skillset similar to that of Christian Ruutu, but lacks the size of Bolland or the snarl that Beach brings. Part of a deep Chicago team that is just getting to know how good they can be.

Murphy-D Fla: Undersized blue-liner was a revelation coming out of training camp as he earned himself a spot running the powerplay. A couple of months in and a knee injury later, Murphy was a drop and re-pick by the Edge GM. Adding another year to a top 4 defenseman is only a good thing. But is he a legit top 4 defenseman?

Salcido-D Ana: With the inevitable departure of Schneider freeing up a spot on the roster, Salcido has a chance to turn his game pro. Has an outside chance of being a decent offensive defenseman if given the ice-time, but may lack in defensive coverage costing him coach confidence. A solid all-round two-way defender.

Overall Rating: B+. Maclean and Kontiola aren't bad, but they aren't solid bets to be producers either, while the rest are all solid prospects who should be dressable at some point in the future. Perron may even be dressable now.

The Highlanders

Hedman-D Modo: A monstrous defender with elite size and skating ability, he's been playing against men since he was 15. He loses a year with the Highlanders reaching for him, but he's being touted as a once in generation type of talent. The comparison I liked was to Larry Robinson.

Overall Rating: B+. Hedman is both a defenseman, and loses a year of eligibility which means his chances of producing for the Highlanders is comparatively small. Still, if you have to reach for a defenseman, Hedman is the one to reach for.

The Ramapithicines

Justin Williams-R Car: Its no secret that I hated this pick as first overall. Williams was a legit 30 goal scorer for two seasons in a row - coincidentally the only two seasons of his career he managed to stay relatively injury free. Worth repeating, the guy is 27 going on 28, and he has two years injury free on his record. When he's healthy he's a 65-80 point player depending on his linemates. Why was he available to be taken in the prospect rounds? You guessed it - because he's currently injured.

Mathias-C Fla: In direct contrast to Williams, we have Mathias. A full-blooded prospect with a history of offense, elite size, speed, World Jr experience, and a roster spot waiting for him. If he had been taken first overall I wouldn't have blinked twice. From what I've seen he's another Getzlaf but without the hair trigger temper.

Overall Rating: B-. I can't get past the Williams pick. I just can't.

The Great Whites

Doughty-D LA: Of the big three defenders available (not including Hedman) Doughty was the big prize, and the most likely to flit with a ppg. With his skating, passing and shooting abilities, pundits are using comparisons like Ray Bourque. I hear he wasn't bad.

Couture-C SJ: A cut and re-draft, Couture is a slick playmaker in the Sharks organization. His career has been derailed by a couple of serious concussions and a bout of mono, but if he can get his head in the game, he could be a top line producer. Tim Connolly is the obvious comparison.

Lepisto-D Wsh: A powerplay specialist from Europe he is attempting to crack the Caps lineup. If he does he has a chance to contribute immediately. Like Rafalski, Visnovsky and Murphy before him, he has the chance to prove he belongs.

Overall Rating: B+. Couture isn't a lock to perform, but Lepisto and Doughty have chances to be excellent.

The Bladerunners

Filatov-L Clb: An offense first winger with blazing speed, and a rocket shot. He was at the top of several other GMs lists, and IMO was a strong candidate to go first overall. Unlike some prospects using the KHL as a bargaining chip, Filatov seems intent on making the team and not looking back. Alexei Kovalev type skill, hopefully without a Kovalev type of attitude.

Berglund-C StL: A full meal deal power pivot in the mold of Ollie Jokinen or Mats Sundin. Future first line center of the Blues.

Svensson-Paajarvi-L Swe: A high skill sniper from Sweden, Svensson-Paajarvi is a candidate to go high in next years Entry Draft.

Overall Rating: A. Much like last year the Bladerunners loaded up on highgrade talent through the draft.

The Severed Heads

Hall-C OHL: Next year Tavares is hoped to go first overall. The year after that it should be Hall's turn. He's a warp speed sniper already turning heads for his offensive ability. Son of a CFL player gets compared to Pavel Bure because of his speed and shot.

Leino-L Det: the third of the three dwarves has a shot at making the champion Detroit Red Wings out of camp. Surprisingly responsible defensively, he may slot in next to Filpulla on the 2nd line.

Karlsson-D Ott: An offense first puck rusher, he may have the highest offensive abilities for the defenseman in his class - which is saying something. Though on the short side (5-11) he has the build that can add muscle and weight easily to help him defensively. At least a year away, but a strong candidate to be a fixture on the Sens blue-line moving forward.

Caputi-R Pit: this years winner of the Milan Kraft award as top Pens prospect who gets stupid love only because he is a Penguins. Caputi had a break out year in the OHL where he scored over 50 times and had just shy of 120 pts. Like many prospects he may lack the skating to take it to the next level, but if he makes it the next level has playmakers like Crosby and Malkin to help him out.

Overall Rating: B+. Hall is a two year reach as a draftee, and no matter who he turns into, thats a lot of time to give up. Leino has a good shot at being a dressable winger, Karlsson to be a decent defenseman, and Caputi a long shot to be the next Rob Brown. So all things considered, not a terrible draft for the Heads.

7 comments:

wildwolf said...

in hindsight, I had other players I liked better than Stoll but rushed the pick after a decent review. As for Dupuis, Probably the best LW that Crosby will get to play with and that could bring an early call up.

Richard said...

I have to say, I take a B+ with pride considering my drafting strategy was page 6 of McKeens.

I do want to say that I look at the JuWilliams draft with a little less scorn than you. The talent drop off in RWs is stunning--a 60 point RW is a much rarer commodity than a 60 point LW, although you still have to play 3 of each. And if Williams comes back at similar stats, he's one less draft that has to be made each year.

And it's why I took Boedker.

R.

Bladerunner said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Red Five said...

Good read indeed Cam - you have way too much time on your hands :-)

A few quick points:

- The PV don't get a grade?

- Would the GWs do better if all 4 of their prospect draftees were rated (Comeau L got no love...)

- If you were ranking the 4 defensive choices out there, how would they stack up? Hedman, Doughty, Bogosian and Pietrangelo?

Bladerunner said...

Yes - good read. Wow, an A when I was expecting to get a C or some such ;-) I almost picked Pietranglo instead of Svensson -Paajarvi but I decided to with the forward I liked instead of the d-man. Will see how it all works out. I never in a million years thought I'd get Filatov - which almost, but not quite, makes up for Gonchar's shoulder.

Cameron said...

The PV graded out as C+, and IMO that is virtually all a credit to Bogosian.

I have to add that Darrell (along with Corey) has historically had a very different prospect draft perspective than I do.

As for Blake Comeau he is;

- Big, so add at least one year of development time

- Doesn't have a strong offensive pedigree (only one season above a ppg while in Jr., and he was below a ppg in his only AHL season)

- He is an Islander. Which is as close to career kneecapper as you can get.

All in all I actually kinda like him, but I see his ceiling as being something like Trevor Linden.

As a bonus you are going to have to wait probably 3 years before you'll know if I am right or wrong.

Cameron said...

I just realized I didn't answer Dan's last question.

I would rank them;

1. Hedman/Doughty tossup.

Hedman should be superior, but you have one less year to find out. I like refrigerators and longshots, so if pressed to pick between them I'd take Hedman.

3. Pietrangelo-D StL

4. Bogosian-D Atl

The Atlanta regime is still not properly set up to develop prospects, but St Louis is.