2/27/2007

NHL Trade Deadline Deals - analysis

Guerin -> Sharks for a 1st, Nieminen and some deep roster prospect.

Is anyone suprised? He'll re-audition as Thornton's port side gunner, after which he'll take a run at scoring 50+ ala Cheechoo last year.

The Penguins picked up; George 'Heavyweight Champion' Laraque, Gary 'Obi-Wan Fitness' Roberts, a Kwiatakowski to fill out the D (and with that name he had better be tougher than Polish leather), and the latest in a long line of goaltending prospects stuck in the Sharks system to pop loose, Nolan Shaeffer, to round out the teams goaltending depth. Well done, I say, well done.

Bertuzzi to the Red Wings for picks. Bertuzzi is the ultimate boom bust proposition. Boom, and you have an unstoppable offensive force, one who can; score 40 goals, assist on 60, record a 100PIM, and bulldoze his way to the net at will. Bust and you have a very expensive locker room cancer with a tricky back and a propensity for near criminal mayhem. My bet is he goes 'boom' in a big, big way, and is an even bet for FP status next year. Essentially this means that Luongo and Kraicjek were traded to the Vancouver Canucks straight up for Bryan Allen and a first.

A smooth move by the Chi-Hawks has them moving a 6th rnd pick and Karl Stewart to get hulking Nikita Alexeev. A little 'fear my wingspan' for a late pick and MIA euro-prospect. Nice.

Dallas adds Mathias Norstrom to their blue-line in what has to be the most underrated moves of the day. They are not going to go gently into that good night come playoff time, and adding a battle tested warrior like Norstrom is proof of that.

The Leafs trade a minor league defenseman and a 2nd rnd pick to the Coyotes for Yanick Perrault. For those of you paying attention, only a few months back Yanick was the last of the free agents signings - so he could have been had for the value of his contract. But it's like free-money when you trade with the Leafs, who come trade deadline are now ready to cough up a 2nd for 5th and a depth prospect for a guy they could have had for free. All in all, the Leafs season is another idiot full of sound and fury signifying nothing.

The Flames picked up David Hale for a 3rd rnd pick. Nice. Hale is a good depth body for a cup drive, and came at a reasonable price. Over this year, Calgary has ADDED; Tanguay, Conroy, Stuart, and Hale. A top line forward, a 2nd line centre, a top 4 defenseman and a depth defender, all of which compliments a franchise forward in his prime, a pair of all-star calibre defensmen, and a cold blooded assassin of a goaltender. Let the playoffs begin!

Now contrast the slow smooth maneuverings of Calgary's Sutter with Edmonton's Lowe, as today Lowe tears the heart of the team out, spits on it, and ships it off to the Islanders. The same GM who is paying everybody's favourite 38 year old backup Dwayne Roloson $4m a year, who signed a way overachieving AHL scoring star Shawn Horcoff to an expensive $3m a year deal, couldn't find it in his heart to pay Smyth $5 and change? Like the Thornton trade to San Jose, this could almost be a franchise killer. Expect Lowe's head.

3 comments:

Red Five said...

Interesting moves all over the place, to be sure. One has to wonder if the shadow of "rental players" covers many of these trades. Particularly those upcoming free agents for the fall, how many teams used the opportunity to get something (rather than nothing) for a player's final 1/4 of a season +/- playoffs. And indeed, how many will go on to resign with the team that traded them in the first place! (For more on this notion, see: Frei article )

Guerin makes the Sharks look even more potent offensively than they already did, which is saying something. If he stays, he could extend his career years yet. However, the defense is not as strong as the forwards, meaning Tosk-abakov will see a lot of rubber...

The Pens add some gritty experience to help out the youngsters in a playoff run. If the old dogs can perform, the Pens could make a big run, especially if Fleury can handle the rest of the team playing firewagon hockey.

Bertuzzi is indeed boom or bust. I hope bust, but to be honest, I don't care. If he never emerges as a top player again, I won't be the one crying. (And though the verdicts would say otherwise, I would dispute "near" criminal)

Norstrom to Dallas (so long team captain in LA - Ouch). Put these guys in front of Turco - if he plays as well in the playoff as he does in the regular season (not something that has happened often), watch for Dallas to cruise into the final 4.

The Leafs - I pity their fans, as deadline day anticipation brings back recycled (Perreault) body. Woo hoo.

And then the Oilers. Smyth is certainly a player I can see as a rental, perhaps even signing back in Edmonton in the off season. It would be nice to see Mr. Canada back North of the border at least. Rumour has it that Smyth and Oiler brass were only 200-300K apart, which in a $5M contract is just pathetic... Regardless, even if Smyth comes back to the Oil, the mood in Edmonton is going to be VERY sour.

Consider: The Oilers go from Cup finalists to a team that has traded away Pronger and Smyth, and looks to finish on the outside come playoff time. If I'm an Oilers fan, how do I feel about the team helping other teams in the drive to make the playoffs (NYI) while the Oilers struggle to do exactly that. Guess they aren't serious about taking another run at the Cup this year...

Douglas McLachlan said...

The fact is that the Oil were not going to make it this year. The playoffs in the West are set, only the order of dance partners remains to be settled.

If the Oil are out, and Smyth has indicated that he will not give a home town discount then you do your best to get a deal done and if you can't, you get the most that you feel you can for him. Three first rounders (Nilsson, O'Marra and the Isle's 1st - which could still be a lottery pick as there actually is a race to get into the playoffs in the East, yes they are favourites to make it in but by no means is it an automatic). And perhaps you can re-sign him in July.

The fans are going to vilify Lowe to be sure but his job is to make the team better. On July 1st they could have been minus Smyth with no three assets or minus Smyth with three assets - its really a no brainer.

Calgary, Vancouver, Dallas and Anahiem all are basically staying pat. Yes they made moves (mostly earlier - though I agree Norstrom was very clever by Dallas) but for the most part they are going to fly with the ones they have. Detroit is conditionally much better - the perfect way to do that deal. The Sharks have finally gotten the power forward they though they had in Bell and add Rivet to their back end - nice. While Nashville has brought in their super-stud.

Out East the Isles look much stronger but it is Pittsburgh that really impressed me. As did Philly. What a great collection of young talent they have assembled in a very short period of time - should be fun.

Douglas McLachlan said...
This comment has been removed by the author.