Here is my largely arbitrary ranking of the top 20 FP candidates for next year.
I used two main criteria for determining their rankings, their current level of performance, and their age. Comments to follow each.
20. Ollie Jokinen-C Calgary
He's among the top centers in the league now that he is on a team with complimentary offense, but Ollie is getting a little long in the tooth (30) to be a reliable for FP for more than a couple of years.
19. Jay Bouwmeester-D Fla (pending UFA)
Jay-Bo is the opposite of Jokinen. He is young, highly skilled, but on a crummy team, and it isn't clear yet where he will go or what his offensive support will look like. Could easily move way up the list if he goes to a top team willing to play him as the primary option on a loaded powerplay.
18. Patrick Marleau-C SJ
Has returned to ppg numbers as the shotgun on Thornton's wing. Unfortunately he is at a position that is relatively deep, and he isn't supplying overwhelming offense. Having been an FP previously and been dumped for poor play doesn't improve his chances either.
17. Dan Boyle-D SJ
He's among the top five in offense from the blue-line, but he is also past his expiration date as a bona fide cornerstone D-man you can rely on for more than a couple of seasons. Only the desperate need consider him seriously.
16. Evgeni Nabokov-G SJ
The third leg in the stool of Shark candidates Nabby has had one mega-elite season and several pretty good - including this year. At his age though it probably makes sense to consider other candidates.
15. Miika Kiprusoff-G Cgy
Having a fine bounce back year that places him amongst the better goaltenders, but (like Nabokov) he isn't a spring chicken anymore, and he has at least one turkey of a year to blot his resume. His save % has also steadily dipped since his super-elite season that saw him lead the Flames to the SC Finals. Not encouraging.
14. Niklas Backstrom-G Min
Plays in a defense first system, has excellent defensive support in front of him (including Brent Burns) leads the FUNHL in goaltending stats, and has just signed a four year deal at big $s. So he's got the resume, but he's also a late bloomer now over 30, and he has Josh Harding pushing him for his role. It wouldn't be out of the question that he become an FP, but it would be a big risk.
13. Vincent Lecavalier-C TBay
I believe he is destined to be the next Mike Modano in that he'll consistently post numbers that make him a top ten center, but never produce the kind of dominance or trust that make him an FP. His age (28) which was not long ago a factor in his favour is now starting to count against him.
12. Marc Savard-C Bos
Has made the case that he belongs amongst the top pivots in the league, but like Jokinen, Lecavalier, etc. his 30+ age makes him a risky bet to be the cornerstone of your franchise. Has one quality which might make him more attractive than the others in that he has on a couple of occasions posted 100+pims in a season - giving him some TG options.
11. Pavel Datsyuk-C/LW Det
In his favour are the gaudy offensive stats, and the primo position of being listed as a LW this year. Working against him are a history of sporadic injuries, a more reasonable consideration of his actual position as a center, and a birth certificate that has him over 30. Of all the pivots advanced in age, he is probably the most attractive because of his excellent stats this year.
The Top 10
10. Ryan Miller-G Buf
Seems like he's been around forever, but that has to do with his being a prospect twice over. He's a good age for a goaltender FP and at 28 is just hitting his prime. He has a solid defensive system in front of him, but unfortunately, not one as good as Nabokov, Kiprusoff, or Backstrom. Still of all the potential goalie FPs, his future is probably the brightest and longest.
9. Alexander Semin-L Wsh
Is one of the leagues most spectacular talents, with elite speed, superslick stickhandling, and an absolute bomb of a slapshot. At the first quarter pole he looked like a lock to be in the top 10 for goals and points. However his weaknesses are equally apparent. He is fragile to the point it is scary, accumulating injuries at a postively Nylanderish pace. His contract also works against him as he is the candidate to most likely to be moved by the Caps to keep room for the rest of their core. For all his other awesome abilities, he isn't a great assist generator as most of his helpers come off of his rebounds rather than his passes. And he reminds me too much of ultra-skilled wingers like Kovalev and Havlat who consistently find ways to undermine their elite skill sets. Also, he fights like a nancy.
8. Mike Richards-C Pha
The annointed 'Crosby-Stopper' is a throwback Bobby Clarke clone. He does it all; setup his linemates, score, fight and drag his team on his back as Captain. The biggest downside is that his talent cieling just isn't as high as others on the list - though you can guarantee he will maximize what he does have. He probably tops out as a 90 point guy with maybe one 100 point year if everything breaks his way, which still makes him a top 10 center, just not the kind that will bring home hardware other than the Selke.
7. Anze Kopitar-C LA
The opposite of Richards in that his talent cieling is much, much higher, but you wonder if the strapping kid with hair all one length will ever put all of his tools into the same box. If he does, he could be dominant, as his tool kit is impressive. He's got the speed, size, shot, passing ability and one on one moves to be an offensive mega-force. The talent surrounding the big Slovenian is weak, but improving, so we definitely haven't seen all he can do yet. Richards is probably the better choice for right now with his refined all-round game, but IMO Kopitar still has the better upside.
6. Thomas Vanek-L Buf
Trigger men like this don't come around very often. Vanek has that elite ability to one-touch rocket the puck to a corner of the net, and will score in bunches. His assist numbers are weak because of his focus on scoring, but he isn't a complete slouch at the passing game - it just isn't his big strenght. His age, position, and talent level make him a compelling option as FP, but his health (or lack thereof) continues to frustrate.
5. Shea Weber-D Nsh
He's the prototype defenseman, big, strong, excellent in his own end, runs the powerplay, and a horse for ice-time. Was atop the scoring board for defensemen for half the year, and continues to post decent numbers as the primary blue-line option for the Predators. On the downside, he's in Nashville, a team talent starved at forward - which will supress Weber's numbers until they can fix that deficit. The only other concern is that he could regress from his current state ala Ryan Whitney, so he isn't without risk. Just entering his prime, he's a solid candidate to post excellent numbers moving forward.
4. Ryan Getzlaf-C Ana
Just as Weber is a coaches dream defenseman, Getzlaf is the mold for a playmaking center. He's got the big body (6'4" 215), terrific wheels, passing ability and in close skills that make for a juggernaut in the offensive zone. He also has a partner in crime in Corey Perry to finish the sweet passes he makes, and the two form a high-octane tandem. As icing on the cake, Getzlaf also has a mean streak that can lead to above 100pim a year, making him a legit goon option at the center spot. Still scratching the surface of his potential, the only concern with him are his rather light goal scoring totals for a player of his talents.
3. Zach Parise-L NJ
Already a 40-40 man this year, he is clearly taking the step up to being an elite skill winger. A tad undersized, he nevertheless makes up for it with blazing speed, a sneaky shot and all-round craftiness. His hockey IQ is one of the highest in the league, and he's formed a lethal tandem with fading FP Patrick Elias. His age and skill level make him a perfect choice for FP. The downsides are that his team isn't known for maintaining a focus on offense, and that there is a history of one-or-two year wonders with the club (Gionta/Sykora come to mind). Still, his abilities are so apparent, it would be shocking not to see someone try to lock him up long term.
2. Dion Phaneuf-D Calgary
A very similar player to Shea Weber in that he has the prototype size, defensive ability, endurance and point-shot cannon to be a perrenial offensive force. Add in a nasty streak a mile wide that produces consistent 100pim seasons and he is an all-round monster. His offense is down somewhat this year, but his playing time and level of competition he faces are all up. IMO he'll adjust to both and continue to be the franchise defenseman for the Flames - as well as Wolves, moving forward.
1. Evgeni Malkin-C Pit
Has already got one 100 point season under his belt, is currently leading the league in scoring, and the argument can now be made he is a better all-round player and offensive force than either Crosby or Malkin. Will likely win the Art Ross and get serious Hart Trophy consideration. Whats more, he isn't dependent on Crosby for help (one might argue the opposite), he frequently carries weak linemates, and he has better size and shot than the Crosby-Show. Comparisons to Jagr are not unfounded, though he lacks some of Jagr's dazzling stick work and is a more responsible defensive player. With the Heads poised to offer him the big contract next year, Malkin will likely rock the Severed Heads jersey for a majority of his career.
3 comments:
Great list Cam but the discussion really requires some predictions of impending FP drops. Malkin is a no-brainer but the list is very "drop dependant". So allow me to make some fearless predictions as to FP drops in order of the current standings.
The Personal Vendetta have LW H.Zetterberg and D N.Lidstrom, both of Detroit. While Zetterberg's production has been a little underwhelming I see no reason to expect that either of these Wings will be released by the Vendetta.
The Highlanders have FP-for life C S.Crosby and former Great Whites FP-for life G M.Brodeur. Brodeur has the shorter shelf-life to be sure (likely sticking around until D M.Green fills the slot) but he isn't going to be dropped next draft.
The Severed Heads have LW D.Heatley and RW M.St.Louis. Both are reasonable FPs but with C E.Malkin on entering his RFA year one of these two slots is reserved for the NHL and FunHL's MVP. The question is which one. IMHO the Heads' management made a lone-term mistake in trading away FP G R.Luongo who could have solidified the team's goaltending for a decade but when push came to shove the Heads clearly felt that it was better to lock in the young star forwards. This leads to the conclusion that Heatley stays with Malkin and that RW M.St.Louis is one FP available in a trade or destined to be released in September.
The Bladerunners have two of the best right wingers in the game in J.Iginla and M.Hossa. While the Bladerunners are well stocked in up and coming prospects (most notably Ovechkin-feeder and future FP C N.Backstrom) there is not reason to believe that a slot opens up this entry draft.
The Shadowmen have LW P.Elias and G R.Luongo. I was savagely critical of the Shadowmen's decision to trade away Luongo earlier this season so its only fair to praise them for reacquiring his rights. This is a guy you build a championship around and if the Shadowmen truly are turning a corner on building a team to contend long-term, they could have no better starting point than Luongo. Elias, by contrast has, IMO, never waranted being an FP. If there is a realistic shot at getting a top FP to replace Elias - and yes Z.Parise would be a fitting replacement - then this is a move that should be made. So that is two drops Z.Parise will be dropped in September.
The Ramapithicines have a steady presence in D Z.Chara but dealt with a disappointing season from G M.Turco. The Ramapithicines are usually very cautious about making big changes, and dropping Turco would be a big change, but I think his performance this season was disappointing enough to make it a 50-50 proposition that M.Turco will be dropped in September.
The Scourge have an elite goalie in H.Lundqvist and a disappointing season from C J.Spezza. While it is possible to see Spezza being dropped, I don't see the Scourge pulling the trigger on this deal at this point. I think Spezza may be on thin ice but he will probably get at least one more season to justify his FP status.
The Lost Boys's GM may be MIA but the same can not be said for their 1-2 FP punch on left-wing. I.Kovalchuck has been lights out while R.Nash's ppg status mildly exceeded most pre-season predictions for his production and the hope is that even great production is coming. No FP drops should be expected from the Lost Boys.
The Knights Templar have two FPs in LW A.Tanguay and RW M.Hejduk that beg for replacement, the issue is by whom. RFA C A.Kopitar looks to be on the verge of greatness so that would be one option but what about the second pick. Shae Webber is also a Knights RFA, though his production has tappered off in the second half of the season, and might be one option from within if the Knights do not get a favourable draft position. Long-term, RW P.Kane will also likely get a look as an FP option. September will see both LW A.Tanguay and RW M.Hejduk on the FP pile.
When the Great Whites let go of FP stalwart M.Brodeur last season one of the "givens" of the FunHL had disappeared. Still, the hope is that down the road G C.Price will again fill that role. For the next couple of years, however, there is still some flexibility. C E.Staal is proving to be a very solid FP for the Great Whites but the same can not be said of C B.Richards who is, at best, a stop-gap. One possible move might be to roll the dice that RFA LW T.Vanek will continue on his development curve, and the flashes of talent this season suggest high-end potential, and promote the Sabre to FP status. If not, there are a number of candidates on Cam's list that would be a clear improvement on Richards. Thus I predict that B.Richards will be another discarded FP come September.
The Edge have, perhaps, the best FP pairing in the FunHL in LW A.Ovechkin and C J.Thornton. Even if the two are not the best pairing they are certainly both elite FPs in the prime of their carears. No drops from the Edge this year.
Finally the Wolves have the aging D C.Pronger and the fragile RW M.Gaborik. Expect Gaborik to be expunged right away, replaced by RFA D D.Phaneuf. I suspect that Pronger will be held on to for another season before being traded - he's still too valuable to simply drop - with the slot being filled, again from within, by J.Toews. So that is one more, M.Gaborik, on the discard pile this September.
So in summary:
Severed Heads will replace St.Louis with Malkin.
Shadowmen will replace Elias with the best option on offer.
The Ramapiticines are 50/50 to replace Turco with the best option on offer.
The Knights Templar will replace both Tanguay and Hejduk with Kopitar and Weber unless they feel that there is a better option than Weber out there.
The Great Whites will replace Richards with Vanek or the best player they can find with their draft position.
The Wolves will replace Gaborik with Phaneuf.
I will await my no-prize in September. :-)
It will be an emotional + difficult day to see some drek dumped... I mean, deteriorating FP assets having their contracts terminated. We'll buy those GMs some beers and then we'll all promptly forget those FPs ever existed ;-) Nah, its fun pointing at and teasing GMs with poor FPs. I especially rag on the guy who drafted Osgood as an FP many moons ago.
And who takes a flier (Bob?) on Steve Mason with 10 shutouts and counting?
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