10/05/2011

FUNHL Draft: News and Notes

Thanks again to everyone who helped make the draft such a success - and to Rob for providing the DVDs of an unknown Canadian direct to video hockey movie. Perfect.

- The biggest surprise at the draft could have been Darrell taking brother Daniel over Henrik Sedin. The PV had an FP at LW already, and Henrik's points are typically a mirror image of Daniel's - so you'd expect he would spread the talent around and select Hank to start the draft. But he didn't. This necessitated him taking centers Krejci and Ribeiro later on, making the PV the official 'Team Donut' (no centers) for the upcoming year. Either that, or 'Team Karl Marx' as a Sedin/Zetterberg LW is just sick.

- The Daniel over Hank decision could have been the biggest shock, but it wasn't even on the Richter scale compared to what happened at pick #3. The Knights Templar had set up their offseason well by moving FP's around. First they shuttled Nash off to the Wolves for Parise. Then they moved Parise on to the Heads for Heatley, and finally they swapped Heatley out for Brodeur. All of which garnered them prospects, RFA's and picks, and set them up to ditch Brodeur and take a new FP at pick #3. A virtually textbook example of how to setup for a rebuild. The first name out of his mouth was Carey Price - which made sense, and forced the Great Whites to match. What happened next though, blew minds. With FP in waiting Ryan Getzlaf still on the board, and with his linemate Corey Perry already in hand, the betting money was that the Knights would go 'all in' on Anaheim and take the hulking playmaker capable of 90+pts and backup TG minutes. It was like it was fated to be. So when he announced 'Milan Lucic' instead you could hear a pin drop, and feel the earth rotate under your feet. Lucic? A 50-60 pt guy in a good year who will goon it up for over a 100PIM is widely considered a solid TG pick, one that would have been matched by the Heads if taken anytime after the 2nd round, but 3rd overall? Ahead of Getzlaf? Jaws simply dropped.

- Leaving aside the shock value, was it really a bad pick? He's the right age (23-24), his points have been steadily climbing (he was on a 70pt pace at the halfway mark - not including his PIM), and he does seem to be a lock for the extra 25pts that come with climbing the 100PIM barrier. But...there are a lot of 'but's here...TG's are notoriously erratic for a variety of reasons, they get hurt more often, they don't get reliable PP time, etc. Lucic has never had a dominate offensive season in junior, or the NHL - he's been good, but never great. That all said, if Lucic continues to progress it could be a monster pick - it just doesn't seem likely to happen (Lucic is already the very rare player whose NHL totals are better than his junior). More to the point, the Knights are likely looking at Lucic being a two year experiment, one that will either bear fruit, or be corrected when Matt Duchesne's contract comes up. Not necessarily a bad pick, but definitely an unexpected one.

- I get on his case for being a slow drafter capable of turning every pick into a monument of indecision, but Collin never hesitated in the first and immediately scooped up Getzlaf as his #2 center behind Thornton. With a solid D-corps, Ovechkin on the wing, and a trade that brought them some solid depth at RW, The Edge may have the best team they have ever iced. They should be a contender - book it.

- Another team that had a very solid draft IMO was the Barbarians. Running Kopitar and B.Richards down the middle gives them a center corps that will have the PV and Great Whites green with envy.

- This year will give us a chance to test out some different GM philosophies, namely, can you win a Cup by having a dominant blue-line / elite goaltender, but only average forwards. The Great Whites have arguably the two best offensive d-men in the game in Green and Doughty supplemented by high-end prospects Myers and Kulikov, and Kevin Bieksa as the #5. It's a killer D-corps. But the forwards they run out are...underwhelming. Tavares would be a nice #2 or #3 on many teams, but for the GW's he'll have to be The MAN. Injured forwards like Kesler and Sharp will need to return and then return to form quickly in order to be effective, and an awful lot is riding on Marion Gaborik being a healthy game-breaker on RW. Fascinating to see how this all plays out for them.

- In contrast, the Severed Heads (again) invested heavily in their forward spots, taking Kane, Lecavalier, and Mike Richards with their first three picks to go with FPs Malkin and Parise. This is a common strategy for the team, but with Fowler and Karlsson capable of moving up from the prospect ranks to bolster the defense corps, it has the possibility of paying off. Squish the Fish in weeks 2-3 will be a fascinating chance to test the opposing philosophies of the Great Whites and Severed Heads.

- One of the questions I had before the draft was how the Highlanders would handle the injury to Crosby. The answer; they didn't. Roy and Bouchard are decent depth players at pivot, and Roy in particular could post very good numbers if he stays healthy, but the Highlanders don't have a true #1 to play on the top line till Crosby returns. A lengthy absence could see the kilted-dirt-farmers plunge in the standings.

- One of the more bizarre draft day events was the plummet of Tim Thomas down the draft board. A 100pt goaltender last year, he managed to get drafted behind at least 7 goaltenders who had fewer points than he did last year, including Backstrom in Minnesota who's 56 points made him roughly half as good as Thomas was.

- Both the Wolves and Ramapithicines have LW's that on paper look...well, terrible. Until you factor in their prospects. Neal should slot in ahead of Steve Ott (himself a bit of a mystifying pick for where he went), and for the Wolves both Benn and Kulemin can be slotted into active roster spots. Neither will have a LW that is actually really good, but they certainly improve with the prospect additions.

- The weakness of the Bladerunners should be screamingly obvious - RW. They have solid talent and or depth at every position except that one. Chris Stewart leads the way of a decidedly mediocre group. How bad is it? David Jones has an active roster spot.

- Looking over the champion's roster from the ED, I have to say they look good, but not 'frighteningly good'. My big problem is they appear to be solid at every position (especially RW, a position that could have been a big weakness for them but for some very intelligent drafting), but the bottom of the roster looks to be thin - at every position. A trade for 3rd line and blueline support could see them legitimately contend for a back-to-back title.

- Brian once again killed at the prospect draft. With 5 first round picks he took; the best player available from this years draft (Landeskog), the best player available from next years draft (Yakupov), the most likely best player available from the year after that (Mackinnon), the best non-drafted goaltender (Bernier), and a decent defense prospect (Hamilton). That's four of five being 'bests'. Scarey stuff.

- One player that got overlooked at the prospect draft was winger Zac Dalpe in Carolina. Some of the Puck Daddy prognisticators have him as Calder material.

- My early bet for top pick at the WD is newly minted Red Wing, Fabian Brunnstrom.

- Brayden Schenn-C P4 Pha is exhibit 'A' for why drafting a player in advance of their ED year can backfire. Schenn was just sent back to the AHL, and as a P4, his time has all but run out.

- Has a prospect fallen as far as Cody Hodgson? Once an elite prospect pick, he's battled injuries and ice-time issues, the former WJC scoring star has finally made the Canucks roster. His reward is a 4th round selection as a P1 by the Shadowmen who were by their own admission sifting through the detritus. Doug has suggested that he no longer seems like a top six forward and that he maxes out as an AHL all-star.

- One of the reasons why the Jagr selection was a good one for the Shadowmen; he knew he could extract maximum value for the 39 year old KHL refugee from the Severed Heads. Its been more than a decade since anyone other than the Heads owned Jagr's rights, so it was a given that they would be motivated buyers.

2 comments:

Douglas McLachlan said...

Hi Cam,

My mind is a bit foggy but I think Getta took Lucic at pick #2, as opposed to #3, passing on Henrik Sedin as well as Geztlaf.

Have to agree with you that Collin did quite well for himself at the draft table and then in the car ride home.

Was certainly interested in getting a top flight center and I must admit that when Mike went way off the board I had hopes that one would become available. Datsyuk would not have made it past the wrap-around but with his selection the remaining crop didn't outweigh the top end D, IMO.

BTW, the expectation is that Schenn will be back with the Flyers after one game. The way his contract is written (and given that the CBA expires this year so the cap hit of bonuses can not be deferred (Schenn has a bonus for playing all 82 games). He should be back with the big club by this time next week.

Bladerunner said...

Gotta say - Lucic being picked as an FP at #2 spot ahead of H. Sedin and Getzlaf was biggest shocker in my 16 years in the FUNHL. More so than the Collective taking Niinimaa as an FP mid first round and the Dogs taking a double time out with pick #1. But hey, it all makes the draft fun!

Looking forward to a good battle!