6/14/2011

Cameron's Draft Prediction

1. The Nuge - Edm

The combine results show him as being 6'1", 172lbs, which encouraged teams that he we would eventually be big enough to play the role of #1 pivot (and not end up as Mike Ribeiro). Super acceleration in his first two steps, and the best playmaking vision in the draft. Edmonton won't be able to resist. Red flags include a high assist to goal ratio, and a unusually large number of powerplay points vs even strength. 6 out of 10 scouts think he's the dude to go first, and I won't argue.

2. Larsson - Col

The most complete defenseman prospect in the draft, he's been playing well against men for the last two years. Remember when Wade Redden was really good? His game is very similar. Could easily be picked #1 overall because of his lack of downside. At worst you get a very mobile defensive defenseman with high IQ. While his ceiling is something like the next Lidstrom.

3. Landeskog-Fla

Big, strong, fast, nasty and a goal scorer. He's a Swedish Mike Richards. May not have the offensive upside of other top 10 players, but he's the kind of kid who walks through blood for his team and that you can build championship teams around. Tallon won't pass on him.

4. Couturier-NJ

The most polarizing player in the draft. Couturier was an early candidate to go first overall, and the 6'4" pivot showed a complete game in the Q despite having to overcome an early bout of mono. Made the WJC team for Canada (something the Nuge didn't), but didn't blow anyone away with his performance. He's the prototype centerman with size, scoring ability, and defensive awareness, but there are concerns about his acceleration and quickness. Was it the mono?

5. Huberdeau

Shot up the draft boards into the top five largely based on the second half of his season and playoffs. Has good size, excellent speed, quick hands and a sniper's shot. Can play both LW (where he was most of the year) or center. He's the Mem Cup MVP - which is undeniably a positive, but he was on a very talented team featuring two other likely first rounders, so how much was he really driving the bus?

6. Strome
Traded to a low rung team that was awful - except for him. Put up gaudy offensive stats, but the team won only 20 games. Solid NHL size, skills and skating abilities, if not for Huberdeau's late season heroics many scouts had him slotted higher. Ottawa needs some talent at center behind Spezza and he'll be the best available.

7. Hamilton

Big, swift skating defenders with great defense and offensive upside don't grow on trees. He's the most complete defender after Larsson, and Winnipeg could use another top pairing type to build their D corps around.

8. Murphy

Murphy is the most intriguing player in the top end. Arguably the best skater in the draft, and without question the best offensive defenseman, he comes with one big drawback - he's only 5'10", and has issues defending larger players in his own zone. The upside is a Paul Coffey style game changer, the downside is a lightweight powerplay specialist like MA Bergeron. The Bluejackets need a puck rusher and won't pass up the chance to take Murphy.

9. Bartschi

A skill player with good size, nice counting stats, and few obvious flaws. He doesn't overwhelm with any one thing, but does most things well, and should end up a nice complimentary winger on the 2nd or 3rd lines. Red Flag - he's Swiss (Michel Riesen!), which used to be a huge issue, but is becoming less of one as time goes by.

10. Armia

A strapping goal scoring winger with grit who has been playing the last year against men and doing well. Not as polished all round (or nasty) as Landeskog, but he's the next best thing if that is what you were looking for. Upside is a 30 goal power winger. Downside is a gritty checking winger with size. Will fit right in with the Finns already in Minnesota.

11. Siemens

A fairly safe, if vanilla defenseman, Siemens is a good skater and has some offensive skills, but will make his calling playing a safe defense game. Probable second pairing defenseman, and even if Colorado takes Larsson, Siemens addresses a long term need.

12. Zibenejad

A physical forward with some decent offensive upside, Zibenejad (Swedish/Iranian), his upside isn't as high as the guys above him, but there is a question as to whether he was held back by being on a veteran team that didn't feed him a tonne of ice-time. Could be a steal. Carolina needs scoring wingers, and Zibenejad plays a similar game to Tuomo Ruutu.

13. McNeil

Already has the size and strength NHL teams covet, and he had 81pts in 70 games for a poor Prince George team so there is real offensive ability there. May max out as a physical 2nd line pivot, but with his size, position, and WHL background, Calgary won't pass on him at 13 unless someone from higher up slips.

14. Phillips

One of the lynchpins of the Sea Dogs Mem Cup run, his ability to play center with Huberdeau created a power line few other teams could match against. The reason he isn't higher on the list has to do with his skating - which is poor, but may be something he can correct with work. Dallas needs an infusion of youth at center, and Phillips is a project they can work on.

15. Kochlachev

A strong competitor despite lacking great size (5'10"), he had very good stats on a strong team, but was definitely not driving the bus. Lacks elite skills, but could be a good support player with 2nd line offensive upside. The Rangers won't have trouble giving him an atmosphere he'll be comfortable in (other Russians), and he fits well with their needs.

16. Saad

A big power winger with some offensive upside, Saad seemed to stall out in the second half of the season scoring only seven times after having 20 in the first half. There were high expectations he would produce more based on his previous history, so some team may think the failure to ignite is a one-off. Buffalo has been collecting bigger banger types of late, and he'll fit right in with them.

17. Oleksiak

Easy to see why he's being considered - he's 6'7". That said, he's also a project, one that Montreal would love to have (especially with Gill around to tutor him on the big man's game).

18. Puempel

Two 30 goal seasons are the good, a weak skating stride, poor team and a cracked hip to end the season are the bad. With all the top offensive guys off the board, a flawed project like Puempel is perfect for the Blackhawks.

19. Beaulieu

The third Sea Dog in the draft Beaulieu has obvious offensive talents, but there is a question as to whether his overall game will mature properly. The best D-man left on the board, Edmonton won't hesitate to grab him.

20. Brodin

Excellent skater, good in his own zone, but produced less offense than expected of him. Is underweight for an NHL defender his size (6'1, 165lbs), and will need to develop further. Scouts are all over the map on him, as some like him in the top 10 and others have him in the 2nd round. The Jets can always use more defenseman with upside.

21. Musil

Big, strong, safe stay-at-home type in the mold of his father Frank. Finding a guy all but guranteed to play late in the 1st (and one who could eventually replace Chris Phillips) will be too much for Ottawa to overlook.


22. Gibson,J

Seems about time for the Ducks to develop a new goaltender, and Gibson is the best available.

23. Grimaldi

Maybe my favourite player in the draft. If Grimaldi were 6'0 and 180lbs he'd be a top 3 selection. But he's 5'6", 163. Built like a fire hydrant he's squat and powerful for his size, and all he does is drive the bus offensively. Like Theo Fleury before him, he may end up being a better winger than pivot. Somebody is going to roll the dice on his offense translating to the NHL - and I bet Yzerman is the guy to make that bet.

24. Jurco

Maxim Afinogenov II. Pittsburgh needs scoring wingers to compliment Crosby/Malkin, and Jurco's flashy one-way game can't help but be attractive to them.

25. Biggs

Burke likes big men who arrive in a ill-humour. Biggs is one of those guys. He's an RJ Umberger type, and the Leafs will love him for it.

26. Klefbom

Detroit loves Swedes - and the defenseman Klefbom could be a good one.

27. Mayfield

Million dollar size and skating stride, 10 cent hockey sense. A project who will need a couple of years to develop, San Jose can afford to wait.

28. Rattie

Rattie is a skill player (top 3 in Dub), but is on the small side. Toronto needs to find a home-run somewhere and if they think they can improve his skating, Rattie might be a legit player.

29. Jensen

Another big winger with flaws in his skating, the Danish Jensen played well enough to get noticed in the OHL, but isn't the complete package many teams crave. Definitely a project, and one the internationally inclined Capitals will gladly take.

30. Rakell

A decent skater with decent offensive ability, he may well carve a nice for himself as a role player on Vancouver's third line.

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