FUNHL News and Notes

After he broke out of his three season long slump posting offensive totals in the mid 30's with three seasons at just sub a ppg, the headlines have been a constant drumbeat of 'will this be the year Hemsky breaks out'? The answer is 'no'. To be blunt he is 25 years old and what you see now with Hemsky is what you get, a 20 goal, 50 assist guy when his lights are turned on. It ain't bad, it just ain't ever going to be superstar.

The NBA has some strange provisions in their players agreement that make Dec 15th a target date for GMs looking to make deals (i.e. look for the Raptors to address their shortage of an athletic small-forward or shooting guard on or about that date). In contrast the NHL allows deals to occur at any time with the only real interesting dates being trade-deadline day and that strange window in the summer when you can move some players with no-trade clauses you otherwise can't move. That said, the Christmas season tends to have its fair share of movement, in part because the GM meetings take place at this time, and because its around Christmas that teams have a better sense of their needs. Complicating matters is that there tend to be one or two free-agents - typically older former all-stars who have been healing up (in this case Sundin and Shanahan) for whom this provides an opportunity to sign on for a half season or so - the incentive being that half a season means half a paycheck, and half a cap-hit. So....

Expect Sundin to sign in the next week - and I predict for a variety of reason that it will be with the Rangers where I also predict he will be an awesome fit.

Expect Gaborik to be moved in a large package deal now that he is recovered from injury. It could drag on till the trade deadline, but I think Riseborough would rather take an early offer (better for the team to move onwards) than a later one that would be more disruptive. My expected destination is still Vancouver (where best buddy Demitra is signed and where the Canucks have oodles of cap-room and ice-time to offer him).

In contrast I expect Kovalchuk will be dealt at the deadline. Atlanta isn't going anywhere and there is no team chemistry to disrupt, so waiting till the last possible minute to move him makes the most sense (at least to me - who knows what Atlanta mgt thinks). My prediction is Montreal makes the best offer and that Kovie will sign there in no small part due to the large Russian presence already on the team.

I'm betting Jay Bouwemeester ends up in Ottawa somehow with my backup bet Calgary. Florida is a mess, J-Bo wants out, and Ottawa is desperate to replace the puck movers they have lost in recent years with Chara, Redden, Corvo and Meszaros all going elsewhere. A package of Vermette, Foligno, a 1st and a 2nd (though probably in different years) might do the trick. I mention Calgary because J-Bo would be at or near the top of Sutter's wish-list. Unfortunately either Irving Leland or Mikael Backlund would likely be heading the other way in any deal.

With the Bolts now well into a full-scale radioactive meltdown I expect Vincent Lecavalier might ask to be put on to the trading block. He clearly isn't having any fun, and the team isn't likely to be a Disneyland under Tocchet any time soon. Vinny has gotten two coaches gassed in the last half a year, so if Tocchet can't get him going it probably won't be Tocchet who is asked to leave. If Vinny does become available the obvious destination is Montreal where he would be a hometown hero - until he has his first bad game.

One of the sillier things being discussed by GMs is an attempt to restrict the dates at which Free Agents like Sundin can sign with a team. Why is it silly? Because the longer a free-agent waits the cheaper he is, and the less his cap-hit. Sure it means that a free-agent can create an endless news cycle of 'will he/won't he'? (google Sundin Signing? for a gazillion recent examples) but at the end of the day restricting when they can sign hurts teams more than it helps them avoid bidding wars.

Last but not least I expect a lot of bad news regarding a handful of US teams including but not limited to bankruptcies, franchises moving in the dead of night and (wait for it...) Jim Ballsillie getting his grubby money soaked mittens on a team. The problem for the NHL is that there is only one JB, and one Southern Ontario market to fill. Winnipeg has no billionaires looking for new toys, nor does Quebec City - which means that when Atlanta, Florida, Phoenix, Nashville and Columbus all crap the bed at once, only one of those five is going to get drycleaning.