6/23/2009

Possible Heatley trades

The news today is that Heatley has offered the Sens a list of teams he would accept to be traded to;

Los Angeles Kings, New York Rangers, San Jose Sharks, Detroit Red Wings, Chicago Blackhawks, Vancouver Canucks and Boston Bruins are apparently all on the list. As per the article, St Louis, Edmonton, Colorado and Minnesota are teams that may have an interest.

Assume for the moment that the Red Wings are an unlikely destination for cap reasons (they won't be able to keep Hossa, let alone take on Heatley) here are some possible moves the others might make;

Los Angeles: Frolov-L, Johnson-D

This rumour is absolutely everywhere for good reason. Frolov is the meat and potatoes, an above average scoring winger with decent size who while young, has nevertheless reached his peak. Johnson is the sizzle. A multi-talented defender with oodles of skill he is also a head-case who is already looking at being moved to his third team before his 23rd birthday.

The Rangers: Roszival-D, Grachev-C, 1st rnd pick

Most Ranger generated rumours include Zherdev as part of the deal, but nobody seriously thinks the Senators would take him back in the package. Most Senator generated rumours include Marc Staal in the deal, but again, nobody seriously thinks that will happen on the Rangers side. Roszival is a decent player with an anchor contract and since the Rangers have to give up salary in any trade he is clearly the most attractive anchor they have (i.e. it won't be Redden, Drury or Gomez), Grachev and a 1st gives the Sens a decent prospect and a future pick to rebuild with, which all things considered is a pretty fair return. That all said, getting a deal done with the Rangers is probably the least likely scenario Murray faces as cap issues necessitate the Rangers having to include ballast salary in any deal.

The Sharks: Marleau-C, Vlassic-D

IMO something like this is by far the most likely scenario. Marleau is a top-end talent with a similar salary who needs a new destination. Vlassic is a decent young player to saw the edge on the trade. Everybody is happy.

Chi-Hawks: Campbell-D

Campbell is now superfluous given the improvement of Keith, Seabrook etc., and his salary is comparable to Heatley's. The Hawks need a big veteran scoring winger to compliment Toewes/Kane, and Heatley fits them to a T. The only problem I see is that the Sens aren't the best fit for Campbell and would likely prefer a forward to a D-man as the key cog in any deal. This deal gets bonus points for being raised by Cassie Campbell on the local Fan 590 hockey talk show. Mmmmm Cassie Campbell....

The Canucks: Kesler-C, Bieksa-D (the rumour I heard was actually Kesler and 'any D-man but Edler')

Wow, but I just don't see it. If the Sens get this as an offer they should jump at it. Kesler is an excellent 2nd/3rd line pivot with brute strength and Selke credentials, and Bieksa is a top tier powerplay QB with a fearless physical dimmension. Not the sexiest offer offense wise, but in terms of quality players coming back this might be the best hockey deal out there - which is why I doubt it would happen.

The Bruins: Kessel-L, Bergeron-C

Makes sense money wise, and the Bruins concentrate some of their talent in one guy as opposed to having to split ice-time amongst a spread of offensive centers. For the Sens it gives them a top line offensive winger with youth in Kessel, and a solid playmaking pivot who is a genuine #2 in Bergeron. Looks like a win-win to me, but would the Sens make this kind of a deal with an Eastern rival they might meet in the playoffs?

St Louis: Berglund-C, Jackman-D

The steak is Barrett Jackman, a solid all purpose (if undersized) defenseman who can log heavy minutes without glaring mistakes or significant offensive contribution, he would plug right in to the Sens top 4. Berglund is the sizzle, a power pivot with skill his ceiling has yet to be reached. For St Louis they have Oshie (whom they won't part with) , so moving Berglund isn't a devastating move, and the team is thin on talent at the wings, especially talent in its prime (i.e. Kariya and Tkachuk don't count).

Colorado: Smyth-L, Shattenkirk-D, 1st rnd pick.

Smyth balances the salaries out somewhat and makes the deal possible for the Avalanche. He would also provide grit and muscle two things lacking on the Sens top lines. Shattenkirk is by far the Av's best prospect, and would be the sweetener needed for the Sens to consider the move. The 1st is a future building block.

Edmonton: Cogliano-C, Gilbert-D, 1st.

Edmonton writers and fans are practically salivating at the thought of landing a bona fide goal scorer in Heatley. The only deals I haven't seen involve Gagner, which makes sense. That said, Cogliano has all the appeal of a really young Todd Marchant (lightning fast but unproven offensive ability), and while Gilbert is nice young offensive talent, I wonder if the combination will be enough to appeal to Murray over possible other options. I would discount the thought that Murray will take back a package that includes either Penner or Nilsson except as throw ins on larger deals.

Minnesota: Burns-D or Harding-G, PM Bouchard-L

A young stud D-man with offensive upside and physical bite would seem like exactly what the doctor ordered. So why would Minny do it? Two reasons; 1. Burns has had concussion and shoulder issues which may make him damaged goods, and 2. Burns is not happy with how the team has treated his injury issues. The Harding/Bouchard deal would also make sense for Minny in that Harding is now logjammed behind Backstrom and Bouchard has shown that his talents may not be the best fit for the Wild. Last but not least, the Wild will be losing All-Star Marian Gaborik to a free agency offer, and Heatley would neatly replace his offensive production with the benefit of better health.

Thoughts?

1 comment:

Douglas McLachlan said...

Personally I love the LA offer, as I still think Frolov has more to offer than we have yet seen. Throw in a flip of first-rounders this year (5th for OTT's 9th) and this should be done.

I don't mind the SJ option except that I don't think Heatley is viewed by Doug Murray as the kind of player that the Sharks need to get over the hump. I think that's unfair as I actually think Heater can be that type of player but Ottawa's run to the finals in '07 was so effortless and their response to the Ducks when they got there was so feeble that it is a label he will have to work to shed.

The Edmonton option is unlikely for a few reasons. Edmonton isn't on Heatley's list (and he does have a no trade claues) and the proposed deal isn't enough to get Bryan Murray to play hardball with Heatley and his agent. They would probably have to throw in their 10th overall and while Edmonton's new owner, like LA, is looking for a big name - this won't be the deal.