It looks like things may be shaping up in his favour after today.
The judge wants the NHL to negotiate a transfer fee for Hamilton.
Which tells me that;
A. There are no other serious offers to purchase
B. The team is moveable (albeit for a price)
The judge also noted that Quebec transfered to Colorado in less than a month despite internal bylaws that Bettman insists would take months to clear - the league claims 'extraordinary circumstances' for the Quebec move, and the Judge apparently found that amusing.
All of which tells me that the Judge is serious about getting the best deal for the creditors, that Ballsy's deal is currently the best, that a 'transfer' fee might reasonably be part of the package, that Ballsy can walk away if the number is too high (but would be free to try again with a different team in similarly dire straits).
In other words, the hand Ballsy is playing looks pretty good all of sudden. Even better when you factor in his ability to pay even a ridiculous 'transfer fee', that he has been previously approved by the BOG (something the judge has taken note of) and positively awesome when you figure he can probably play more than just the Phoenix hand (i.e. he might try again in Atlanta, Florida, Tampa Bay, etc.).
I predict;
- the transfer fee will be in the neighbourhood of $200M (making Balsillies total $412M), 100M for the league and 100M to split between Toronto and Buffalo (40/60)
- Ballsy will pay it.
- The Coyotes will cease to exist and become the 'Hamilton Vengeance' in time for next season to start.
- Shane Doan may get a buy out (he has a no-move clause as his young family is entrenched in Phoenix), or become a free-agent.
- I have trouble seeing how Bettman survives being castrated publicly in court by Ballsy. That said, could anyone have done better for the BOG than Bettman has?
- I had said the odds for Ballsy were 50/50, but I now think they are closer to 80/20. IMO, he's clearly winning.
2 comments:
There is a classic old joke that goes like this: A man walks up to an attractive woman and says, "Would you sleep with me for a million dollars?" The woman pauses and then says, "Yes, I guess I would." The man then asks, "Would you sleep with me for one dollar?" The woman is shocked and replies, "What kind of woman do you think I am?" The man replies, "We've already established that - now we are haggling over price."
As I've said all along, in the end this is all about money. Certainly there are egos involved - and they are big - but everyone has his price and the game now is to figure out what that will be.
The NHL (put aside the Leafs and Sabres for a second) has a money pit in Phoenix on the one hand and the prospect of a net contributor to revenue sharing on the other. Seems a clear choice for the other owners but it isn't that simple. If the Hamilton/2nd team in Toronto market were an expansion franchise, how much would it go for? Much more than the $212 million on the table for Phoenix to be sure and that is a lot of money that every other team would get a piece of. Not easy to just walk away from that. Secondly, the revenue generator that Hamilton is (supposedly) going to become will have the side effect of bumping up the salary cap floor for many teams who are already struggling to make ends meet. It may seem perverse but a black hole like Phoenix may be, at least in the short term, less of a drain than a successful team in Hamilton.
In the end, I'm like Cam in thinking that a number could be found where Mr. Blackberry gets his team in Hamilton but pays a pretty penny to the league to transfer (say $100-200 million) which the league then distributes disproportionately to the Leafs, Sabres and the rest of the league).
Hamilton... well, the actual city part of Hamilton, not the entire municipality... is outside of Buffalo's range. Any payment will go entirely to Toronto.
Otherwise, we'll see how youre prediction goes.
Richard
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