Since there aren't enough options out there :-)
While I personally like the notion of linking goalie stat calculations to scoring in the league, I think the proposed scale is a weak approximation. Based on the numbers provided by Bob/Doug, the "shutout number" for goalie points would increase as league scoring increases but at a ratio of 1:2 - That is, if average goals per game in the league goes up by 1, the shutout number goes up by 0.5. I presume this is because an increase in league GPG does not translate directly into a similar increase in GAA for the top 24 or so goalies, so we are using an approximation.
Why not decide what we think goalies should be worth, then index it to last year's goalies?
For example, take the top 24 goalies (GAA) based on those who played at least 2500 minutes. Calculate the average # of games played (for argument, let's say that is 60), and calculate the average GAA (AGAA)
Then answer the question - what should an average goalie get for points?
Let's say we think the average drafted goalie should get 75 points. If the avg games played is 60 as in this example, the formula for the ensuing year would be:
goalie points = (X minus AGAA) * (Mins played/60)
where the magic number X would simply be AGAA plus 1.25
thus X minus AGAA = 1.25, x 60 games played = 75 points.
If the average drafted goalie should in our estimation earn 90 points,
X would be AGAA plus 1.5
That way we index goalie scoring not to league average GPG, but to actual prior year goalie stats, and align it to our pre-chosen target using THE ACTUAL STAT we are trying to optimize.
Just a thought...
Dan
2 comments:
very interesting proposal Dan. Problem would be deciding what should be the average number of points the top 24 goalies should get. I unfortunately think we would get less concensus on this than what we are doing now.
As stated in a more recent post, very interesting but IMHO too complicated. Please put me down as voting against this proposal.
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