Hey all,
Cam had expressed the notion of having a #1 goalie being roughly equal to a #1 centre, so I thought I would illustrate that with my proposal :-)
Let's say we adopt a rule that statistically aims to meet the goal above:
The top 12 centres last year earned an average of 86.4 points
The top 12 goalies (by FuNHL stats) last year played an average of 67.75 games, and earned an average GAA of 2.34
If we want the top centre average to be the guide, then our formula is simply:
We want top 12 goalie average = 86.4
86.4 = (X - 2.34) x 67.75 games played
so X = 3.62
In other words if our formula for this coming year were to be
goalie stats = (3.62-GA) x GP
and we applied it to goalies from last year, the top 12 would average exactly the same as the top 12 centres.
(Interestingly a result in the middle between 3.5 and 3.75 almost exactly)
To compare:
- Use GPG sliding scale (GPG 5.57 means magic # is 3.75): avg top 12 goalie = 95 pts
- Use the ever popular 3.5: avg top 12 goalie = 78 pts
- Use formula above: avg top 12 goalie = 86.2 (almost bang on a top 12 centre)
Personally if we really think a top 12 goalie should score like a top 12 centre, this way works perfectly
IMHO ;-)
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3 comments:
Sorry Rob - didn't mean to interrupt your vote process - just trying to clarify my proposal for those who wanted to know :-)
Good clarification.
Thanks for the clarification Dan.
The challenge in doing a straight comparison of this sort is that we are only able to adjust one of two factors that make up a goalie's pts under the formula (the GAA baseline) when one of the biggest factors is actually the GP factor.
Using your system of 3.62, based on last season, would produce sts for the top 24 goalies as follows:
Player Dan's Plan
Evgeni Nabokov 112.50
Martin Brodeur 112.01
H. Lundqvist 99.73
Roberto Luongo 87.48
J.-S. Giguere 82.75
Marty Turco 79.23
N. Backstrom 74.43
Manny Legace 73.93
Ryan Miller 73.08
Ilya Bryzgalov 71.08
Pascal Leclaire 68.18
M. Kiprusoff 68.17
Cristobal Huet 66.06
Tim Thomas 65.73
Tomas Vokoun 63.15
Chris Osgood 61.43
Martin Biron 60.75
Jose Theodore 59.55
Dominik Hasek 57.97
Cam Ward 56.99
Vesa Toskala 56.28
Rick DiPietro 49.43
Martin Gerber 47.96
N. Khabibulin 47.72
For quick reference, the top 12 centers for last season (* Zetterberg is NOW a center but wasn't last season) is as follows:
Evgeni Malkin 106
Joe Thornton 96
V. Lecavalier 92
Jason Spezza 92
H. Zetterberg* 92
Mike Ribeiro 83
Eric Staal 82
Ryan Getzlaf 82
Derek Roy 81
Marc Savard 78
Mats Sundin 78
Anze Kopitar 77
The top two goalies would still exceed the top center (and indeed barely exceed the top forward - A.Ovechkin's 112pts) and the 12th center is almost 10pts more than the 12th goalie. Still, assuming that this is the standard comparison we want to make - it's pretty accurate.
My concern is still the simplicity question. If 3.75pts for a shutout is somehow "unnatural", 3.62 is even more so.
I'll still have to vote no, but I appreciate the effort.
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