Here's my overview of the prospect drafts most likely candidates as we move through the off-season.
Keep in mind that this isn't my actual 'list', just a rough lay of the land, and that I make no effort to account for any particular team needs or tendencies in how I put this together. So if Jamie Benn is picked in the third round instead of 3rd overall, I won't be shocked.
For the most part the names are culled from one of two sources; the Hockey's Future website (which is awesome) or from mockups of the NHL 09 ED.
1. Matt Duchene-C OHL
Upside: Franchise cornerstone, Steve Yzerman type of #1 offensive center with blazing speed.
Downside: If he goes third overall as expected to the Avalanche - none, he's about as can't miss as you get, and in the opinion of some scouts has passed John Tavares as the best forward in the draft . If he's a Bolt or Islander, the only downside is the crappy team surrounding him. If he's an Av - he's essentially blemish free.
2. Kiril Kabanov-L Rus
Upside: Ilya Kovalchuk
Downside: He's a potential first overall 2010 pick, so you have to burn a year just to see him get drafted behind Taylor Hall. Also the track record with skill wingers coming from Russia is varied; some are Ovechkin, some are Zherdev. Given his upside of being a potential FP quality player, he'll go early despite the risk and the burned year.
3. Jamie Benn-L/R Dallas
Upside: He's a pure goalscorer. In his most recent Memorial Cup game with the Kelowna Rockets he netted four, and had a fifth bounce off the post in an empty net try. Dallas is aging rapidly at the forward spots and an opportunity to immediately make the roster exists.
Downside: Lacks physical bite, and may need a year or more of seasoning at the AHL level to round out his game.
4. Evander Kane-R WHL
Upside: Physical two-way forward with excellent wheels and scoring touch. Made the WJC team as a checking winger and forced his way up to a scoring line. Jarome Iginla potential.
Downside: Concerns about his ability to play his hard-nosed game at the next level., ala fellow Vancouver Giant grad Gilbert Brule.
5. Erik Tangradi-R Pit
Upside: Could be the long sought after ppg power forward with size to compliment either Crosby or Malkin. Tangradi was a top scorer in the OHL as an overager (20), and was the blue-chip prospect the Pens received along with Chris Kunitz in return for Ryan Whitney going to the Ducks.
Downside: Skating is considered to be at best average, and he severed a tendon in his arm that has required surgery and could shelve him for a while.
7. Colin Wilson-C Nsh
Upside: Power pivot in the Jason Arnott mold.
Downside: Lacks elite skating ability to go with elite hands/hockey sense.
8. Luca Sbisa-D Pha
Upside: Mobile, intelligent 1st unit powerplay defenseman. A Wade Redden type, he's a safe, if a little un-sexy, prospect.
Downside: Does everything well, but nothing at an elite level.
9. Zach Boychuk-L Car
Upside: Nifty waterbug type winger oozes offensive skill. A Ray Whitney style top line forward, he could develop into a nice fit alongside Eric Staal on the top line.
Downside: Undersized at 5'9", he's already been bitten by the injury bug once, and with his style of play and slight frame he will never be rugged.
10. Ryan Ellis-OHL
Upside: A Brian Rafalski/Brian Campbell cross, he has terrific offensive potential, especially on the powerplay where his shot and passing abilities are already NHL caliber.
Downside: With his undersized frame and defensive liabilities he may never be more than a powerplay specialist ala MA Bergeron in Minnesota.
11. Jakob Markstrom-G Fla
Upside: Large framed #1 goaltender who can play 60 games a season. He's currently the top rated prospect goaltender by the Hockey News.
Downside: Will need to wait out the transition away from Tomas Vokoun. Also, he'll be playing in Florida - a place where elite goaltenders rot on the vine till traded elsewhere.
12. Jake Gardiner-D Ana
Upside: Top pairing offensive defenseman - a Mathieu Schneider type. He's already had a year of College so is more advanced in his progress than many d-prospects.
Downside: Logjam of defenseman ahead of him may delay his arrival. Needs to prove he can play in his own end.
13. Dmitri Kulikov-D OHL
Upside: Niklas Kronwall type of defenseman, he has excellent powerplay credentials, and has a solid defensive and physical game. Potential #1 defenseman with an all-round game.
Downside: Has not looked awesome in the Memorial Cup playoffs, including being on the wrong end of some devastating hits by Greg Nemisz. As a 2009 draftee, he'll be farther away than other more developed prospects.
14. Mathias Tendenby-L NJ
Upside: Brian Gionta2
Downside: Eric Perrin2
15. Jordan Eberle-R Edm
Upside: Eberle is blessed with Joe Mullen style scoring ability and is a potential first line finisher.
Downside: Lacks; playmaking ability, size, top-end speed, decent city to play hockey in, hope.
16. Nazem Kadri-OHL
Upside: A Mike Ribeiro type of skill center, he can play all three forward positions, win face-offs, score, make plays, and has above average speed. Bonus points because he comes out of the London Knights prospect factory.
Downside: Two words; 'Daniel Tkachuk'
17. PK Subban-Mtl
Upside: A robust, thick-bodied, puck rushing defenseman with a potent shot, and swashbuckler instincts. Subban opened a lot of eyes at the WJC where he would cause hearts to stop with his gambling style. A potential Jovo-cop.
Downside: Fringe NHL defenseman Shawn Belle
18. Jordan Schroeder-R USDTP
Upside: If there is a potential Zach Parise in this draft, its Schroeder. He's undersized, but undeniably skilled.
Downside: Makes Patrick Kane look like Lou Ferrigno.
19. Nathan Gerbe-C Buf
Upside: Theoren Fleury. He's an offense first winger who has marinated substantially in the AHL where he's been a top performer, and made the effort to cover his small frame with as much muscle as he can pack on to it.
Downside: Dude is all of 5'6", so if he can't be an elite scorer he doesn't play.
20. Brendan Smith-D Det
Upside: He's more of what the Wings already have lots of, swift skating, mobile, offensive defensemen.
Downside: The Wings like to leave their prospects on the farm an extra year or three before breaking them in slowly on lower lines (Johan Franzen was a 27 year old rookie). It could be years before he sees powerplay time of any note.
21. Jonathon Blum-D Nsh
Upside: the latest in a long string of offensive minded defensemen to come through the Nashville system, he could be the highest scoring of all of them.
Downside: He's a featherweight even by Brian Rafalski standards. Will need a few years to break in, and there are lots of guys ahead of him on the depth chart.
22. Artem Anisimov-C NYR
Updside: He's over a ppg in the AHL, and has the size and skating ability to be a top line pivot, on a team that lacks size down the middle. His advanced age for a prospect (20) makes him more likely to succeed sooner rather than later.
Downside: The Rangers haven't developed a home grown forward with any kind of talent for almost a decade - will they screw up Anisimov like they did with Hugh Jessiman?
23. Zach Hamill-C Bos
Upside: With Kessel moved to the wing, and Krecji a threat to leave via free agency signing, there is room to add the skilled playmaking centerman into the B's top six.
Downside: His season was interrupted by a thumb injury last year that has delayed his entrance to the NHL.
24. Greg Nemisz-C Cgy
Upside: Every year a Flames prospect gains some interest, and this year its Nemisz. With a powerlifters body and the soft hands of a scorer, he's the prototypical #1 centerman once he hits his potential.
Downside: Skating has to improve for him to make it, and the Flames are currently full at center, so he'll need a break to see ice soon.
5 comments:
So who wants to prep the list of players Cam has on his list that are NOT included here? :-)
Here's the thing, as much as I think the top 24 guys will look something like what I wrote, I know there is zero chance that what I suggested is how it will play out. We'll have lots of undrafted guys to consider, and at least a couple of my suggestions may get picked outright based on a few games played last year (i.e. Luca Sbisa-D Pha)
I'm confident in the top 2 (Duchene/Kabanov) because they represent potential FPs, and because Duchene should have a better team (Av's) and an extra year I personally rank him higher than Kabanov and suspect most others will too.
Outside of that, its a fish-shoot who goes next.
That all said, here are 14 more names from the remainder of my preliminary lists to consider as potential 1st/2nd rnd guys;
Yannick Riendeau-C Bos
Overager has offensive skills (lead Q in scoring), but lacks great skating. Was signed to a free-agent deal by Boston a few weeks ago - likely to cover the possible departure of Krecji.
Lars Eller-C St Louis
Must crack the deepening group of St Louis forwards, as well as decide that he wants to jump the pond and play in NA. St Louis scouts had him ranked just behind Pat Kane (and thus presumably ahead of Van Riemsdyk et al).
Nick Petrecki-D SJ
Two-way defenseman is highly regarded, but may not have enough offense to be sexy.
Ian Cole-D StL
Has to climb a lot of bodies for ice-time on St Louis blueline.
Dustin Tokarski-G TBay
WJC gold medal goalie is behind Rammo, Helenius and Smith on depth chart.
Ondrej Pavelic-G Atl
Waiting for his turn behind Lehtonen.
Corey Schneider-G Vcr
Must wait for Luongo to die.
Leland Irving-G Cgy
Must wait for Kiprusoff to die.
Linus Omark-L Edm
The Swedish Robbie Schremp.
Ryan McDonagh-D Mtl
Solid defenseman with offensive upside almost made my top 24.
Michael Del Zotto-D NYR
Ditto.
Tyler Ennis-L Buf
Has wicked skills, but is only 5'9", and Gerbe is ahead of him experience wise.
Kiril Petrov-L NYI
Likely a top six forward based on skill set, but may elect to play in Russia.
Ilya Zubov-C Ott
Has demonstraed oodles of skill and has been ripening nicely on the farm, but needs a top six spot to be effective as he isn't a checker.
You can be sure I haven't given away ALL my prospect picks - after all, I do have to pick late, so I definitely have a couple names stashed away that I am looking for in the late rounds - but I also think each GM will have a different guy that they think I have purposely left out.
I'd be curious if anyone has a name or two they think I should have listed but haven't....
Hmm, I wonder what 6'3" 200+lb Russian-born New York Rangers prospect who plays for the Brampton Battalion and went 40g 40a last year is missing from this list? I highly doubt he's missing from Cam's - or mine.
You are speaking of Evgeni Grachev - and no, he's not missing from my list. However, given he is 18 and that by comparison Anisimov is 20 and has been a ppg in the AHL, I had Grachev as being less likely to make an impact in the near future. Add in the fact that Drury, Gomez and Anisimov all play center, and you'll likely have to wait for him to develop his game to a level that is worth picking him high.
He's someone I am looking at as a late 2nd early 3rd.
In a similar vein is Joe Colburne of the Bruins. He's 6'5", 195, and all indications are he is a top end playmaking talent, but one that will require lengthy seasoning in college and the minors to add muscle and experience - and then of course, there is the logjam of pivots ahead of him on the team (Savard, Krecji, Riendeau, Hamill, etc.) to delay his arrival even further.
Given those factors I had a number of others (especially d-men) I initially thought would be more productive sooner.
There's a few I have on my list for the first few rounds that Cam doesn't have,, but sorry to be miserly, I don't like to share my lists with others ;-)
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