James Myrtle has the breakdown on the offer sheet information so far, but it looks like Kevin Lowe is now pursuing the phenomena we experienced last year known as 'driving the other GMS in your pool with RFA's CRAZY by trying to sign someone, anyone, to be on your team'.
As I recall, Mike started with no fewer than 6 RFA bids before he snagged and only stopped bidding on them when Daniel Sedin was the best guy left (and who it would seem, Mike had targeted all along).
For the Oilers, first it was the debacle mega-offer to Nylander (and I think Lowe dodged a self inflicted wound on that one), then, the young and mobile offensive defenseman for the old and nasty fan-favourite trade (with a subplot of cagey local-ish vet on his last legs for disgraced local boy grand-son of the owners for whom expectations were too high) that brought them the soon to require a raise Pitkanen, followed by the not-quite a debacle mega-offer to Vanek, the sad overpaying for turnstile defender Souray, and now this.
If the Ducks (Brian Burke - and I for one, can't wait to see the interview footage), decline to match the offer, the Oilers give up their 1st, 2nd and 3rd in next years ED as compensation.
Lowetide is absolutely livid.
Here's why Lowe did it.
Penner is still young (25) and growing into his massive frame and skill set. The perfect manifestation of 'big guys take longer'. If the stars align themselves properly, he's still progressing offensively and enters the 'LeClair, Bertuzzi, Neely' world. The Oilers are a team brimming with soft, fast, playmakers of various levels of ability and lack a one-touch finisher who goes to the net with authority and ill intentions. In other words, he fits the profile for what the Oliers need in the worst way, a talented shooter with brawn.
The price tag starting with the $4.3M cap hit strikes me as a high - but fair for an RFA. If Penner takes it up a notch he's worth every penny.
The second part of the equation is harder to deal with. Leaving aside the 2nd and 3rd, is Penner worth the 1st the Oilers part with?
I think so. Given the record the Oilers have for competing just hard enough not to be complete jokes, and as such, the Oilers will be 40/60 to make the playoffs and avoid the lottery.
But that other 40% is the issue. Say Penner comes over and gets hurt. The team nose-dives all year long (throw in a panic trade or two to gut the franchise) and find themselves in the bottom 4 teams. What would you want more in those circumstances, your first rnd pick? Or Dustin Penner?
The flipside of all this is that Burke insisted he would match any offer. But doing so puts the Ducks at $52M (not counting a Niedermayer retirement), and it would make the team hard-pressed to match if Niedermayer is to return. Three picks in a good draft is excellent compensation for a late bloomer who is still not definitively heading towards the Rick Tocchet portion of the powerforward class rather than into permanent Brad May territory.
All in all, it's a good gamble for the Oilers to take, and it's a solid bet that Burke will call Lowe's bluff and let him go.
Either way, I bet it makes for an interesting GMs meeting between the two.
4 comments:
I actually like the Souray signing as the PP needed an overhaul and, along with Pitkannen, they now have some real NHL d-men on the back end.
Souray also brings some toughness, another thing clearly lacking in last year's Oilers. Which brings us to the Penner offer sheet.
Cam, I think you were remarkably fair-handed in your post. Is $4.3 million too much to pay for a first-year player? Absolutely, but that's the point. If the offer was at market prices, Burke would match. He now has to think about it. I figure Burke will match, just like Nonis did with Kesler last season (another offer that was about one big step too far from where it should have been) and it will be done.
Still, a 6'4" 220lb budding power-forward who has already shown an abillity to pot 20+ goals is pretty good. Ryan Smyth had one of the best years of his 12 year career last season and only got 36! This is the attempt to replace Smyth's presence on the top line with grit and goals and I think the comparison is fairly favourable for the Oilers.
Penner got 29 goals last year (7 less than Smyth) but he is only 24 years old (compared to Smyth's 31). And with Smyth its not just the years, its the miles. Lowe's gamble with Smyth last summer was Lowe banking on the winger getting his usuall 15-20games of banged up time - but it didn't happen. So he had to deal him off for two prospects and a pick: R.Nillson, R.O'Mara and the pick that became A.Plante. All of the picks are now Oilers so their value drops but for the sake of arguement, they are collectively worth at least a 1st, 2nd and 3rd.
The Smyth saga, if Burke doesn't match, becomes Smyth and a 1st, 2nd and 3rd for Penner, Nillson, O'Mara, Plante and $1-1.5 million a year for 5 years (during which time Penner goes from 24-29years, his prime, and Smyth goes from 31-36, his post-prime.
Nice call Lowe with the bonus that you get to stick it to Burke during his weekend with the Cup. Revenge is a dish that is best served cold, indeed.
Of course Burke will match but nice play K-Lowe.
Here's the thing, I don't think it's necessarily 'of course Burke will match'.
If there is a scenario where a GM sucks it up and lets the player leave, it's this one.
Is the package of picks worth it for Penner?
Yes, especially when you figure in the likely incompetence of the Oilers and the possibility they are still a solid lottery team even with Penner.
Does the cap space you free up by letting him go make a difference?
Yes, it allows Burke to re-sign both Selanne and pay Niedermayer if both want to return.
Of all the options available to Burke, keeping Penner might actually be the worst.
Stangely enough, I don't think the Penner cap hit is that bad this year for the Ducks - regardless of Niedermayer or Selanne's decisions. They have some flexibility and you know that Burke isn't afraid to make deals.
Where I think the pinch comes is next season when Getzlaf and Perry need to be inked.
Personally, I'm kinda impressed with what Lowe is trying to do here. That said, a coke says that Burke matches and does NOT do a Buffalo whine about it. "I offered profanity" Burke is a big boy who knows that this is a big boy game. He'll keep his eye on Pitkanen's status next off season and "take a number" - but any GM who isn't thinking of making a move to improve their team is an idiot.
You may be right, and that Burke will simply retaliate in kind when the opportunity arises.
That said, I would have targeted Parise over Penner, despite the fact Penner is likely a better goalscorer at this stage, Parise is the better all-round player (and he skates like an Oiler).
I heard rumors that the Oilers were taking a run at Gionta as part of a trade situation with New Jersey - so that may be why we haven't seen an offer sheet land on Parise's desk just yet.
I think the key for Burke is Niedermayer and Selanne. If Burke can have both of them come back, he will cut Penner loose to make room. If Niedermayer retires, or Selanne is left to sign elsewhere, then he probably matches.
That all said - I'd still be awfully tempted to simply let Penner go for the three picks and cap-space savings.
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