Thoughts on the WD, and the Severed Heads (with reply)

RB: Hello,

Yes Cameron, you did manage to pick a theme-song older than me for my team. Nice. Kudos for getting a song I've heard of, but haven't heard. Kind of like my name-recognition problem with most of hockey.

- CH: I defend my choice on the grounds that 'Bela Lugosi is Dead' is empirically speaking the best all-time vampire song. Period (though I welcome any other contenders be submitted for consideration). I could have considered the Peter Pan angle I guess, but you might have ended up with Puff the Magic Dragon (a song that still tears my heart out). Ulitmately, I just hope you like it.

RB: Second, I think I gotta disagree with you on the whole "retire a number symbolically, win or no win." Here's why: This is professional sports, winning is everything. (Or, maybe Jagr should just be content with the fact that he's statistically the superior athlete, hardware to show it or not.)

CH: Point taken, hockey is about winning, but when you are retiring a jersey it isn't about winning, it's about the player who wore it. It's the team saying 'we love you so much for what you did, nobody else will ever wear your number'. Heady stuff. When a team has decided to honour a player this way, why not go the extra step and do so in front of any other team he might have played for? If anything, I think Hradek is an idiot for presuming that the dynamic goes like this;

"Pick an opponent you can beat, so the fans get the ceremony and a win"

vs

"Honour the player in the classiest manner possible, and then kick the crap out of whoever that opponent is in his name."

The ceremony should lead you to the win, not the possibility of a win to the ceremony.

RB: When you retire a number, you honour your teams past legacy, connecting it forward to the present legacy or lack-there-of. The military-sports metaphor being a natural, you are honouring your veterans. "Today we are great because of you" is what you are saying. Subsequently losing a game to a team that is equally important to a player in their career, is just bad... so very very bad, because it means that the legacy of greatness they left you: non-existent; your honouring them: meaningless. Soldiers are not great; armies are great, nations are great. We expect the same rhetoric from one as to the other, therefore, you don't hand out medals on the eve of battles you expect to lose.

On the other hand, if you think I'm wrong, I encourage you to draft historically and symbolically important players to you this coming WD, as opposed to those whose stats actually justify their being on your team.

CH: Agreed. You can have all the Leafs you want.

RB: Finally, my thoughts on the WD.

Assuming no great change in what Brian dispatched last night, I'm having to start deciding who and how I stack in my excel sheet. Basic figures:

Total number of Forwards playing in the FUNHL: 48 apiece.
Total number to be drafted: ~3.5 per team
Minimum stat ceiling:
- LW: Oleg Saprykin 13 pts.
- RW: Ruslan Fedotenko 14 pts.
- C: Bryan Smolinski 16 pts.

Total number of Ds playing in the FUNHL: 96.Minimum stat ceiling: Chris Chelios 7 pts.
Total number to be drafted: ~3.5 per team

What do I make of this:
- There are still three draft strategies: Crazy forwards, or Crazy Ds, and the Complete Crazy.
- I don’t believe the third is a feasible option unless you believe you sincerely could run an actual hockey team. This rules it out completely as an option for the Lost Boys. But let us give credit where it is due: at least 3 FUNHL teams will use that strategy.

How to draft Crazy forwards:
- Draft an LW first, the talent spread is thinner.
- Be aware that some players in the “top 48” are not available because they’re prospects, so the spread is greater. Be aware that people who favour lots and lots of trading are probably matching you on this strategy. For example, Bob or myself might well draft a C in the first 2 rounds, because we have Vermette and Koivu in our pockets. Now someone’s drafting Chelios for a centre, and the Shadows start to circle.
- Don’t consider penalty minutes on forwards. Every minute spent in the box is one where your player isn’t getting an assist, and is seeing a ¼ point for his efforts. Waste of time. (okay, if you’re drafting someone placed lower than 40th, look at penalty minutes)
Why to draft Crazy forwards: fundamentally, it’s where the points are. Pronger is the exception that proves the rule, there just aren’t enough high-pointing Ds to take you to the Pred without decent forwards.

How to draft Crazy Ds
- Well, how is easy, though once you’re looking at less than 11 points, consider penalties. Good Ds are few and far between and a minute spent in the penalty box is actually the most points you’re likely to see in the game from a D.
- Why to draft Crazy Ds: there is more competition for the Ds than for the forwards. Consider: 42 to 96 (number of Ds that have to be drafted) compared to 42 to 164 for Forwards. The last player to be drafted is likely going to be a 7-point-23-minute-St Louiesque-“miracle”, because the average Ds are just that bad.
- And while good defense isn’t everything, it makes the difference between the top 3 teams and the next 3. Big teams trade their 3rd line forwards for solid Ds. Little teams with solid Ds have trade options… good trade options (Hello Brindamour).
- But: if you’re drafting Ds, have the balls to stick with it. Don’t draft 1 D, and then go for an L, and then another D, go for quality, or go for thugs. There’s no profit in the middle ground (That’s called complete crazy).

Prediction: Any team going in to draft 5 forwards is going to have the best WD. Again, it’s a numbers game. There’s better quality and less competition for the forwards. (But, keep in mind, no A-grade forwards aren’t available. Except Zetterberg)

As for goalies… tough call, here’s why:
- Wins don’t matter for goalies, but it’s the easiest way to measure them
- Stat bottom on W: Theodore COL (8).
- The most valid measure for the FUNHL is GAA.
- Stat bottom on GAA: Raycroft TOR (2.93)
- Another important stat: How much ice time are they seeing?
- Stat bottom on TOI: Cloutier LAK (1004)

CH: Crazy man, crazy.


It’s hard to play with the formula to come up with satisfying results. One that doesn’t let one game wonders float to the top. I think name recognition basis will go a long way in getting a goalie.
Chat to you all on Saturday

CH: I'm looking forward to it as well!

Richard.