Money quote:
What we will find is that teams played 39% more time on the PP (or PK) this season than in 2003-04. Combined PP and SH increased 46%. When we factor out the ice time difference PP and SH goal scoring only increased a measly 5%.
We will also find that even strength ice time dropped to 88.3% of what it was in 2003-04 while even strength goals were up 5.12%. When we adjust for the ice time difference we find that even strength goals are in fact up 19%.
Why the difference? I suspect the reason why even strength goals are up more than PP/SH goals after adjusting for ice time is because power plays are usually just played inside the blue line and the benefits of no red line and the crack down on neutral zone obstruction has very little influence on the PP.
In conclusion, while the greatest net increase in goals this season has been because of the increase in penalties, the crack down on obstruction and the other rule changes have had a much more significant impact on the rate of goals being scored even strength.
- Exactly right! The impact of the changes to even strength play are being underplayed because of the increase in powerplay scoring and time spent on the powerplay (there are more powerplays per game, and powerplay efficiency is at a greater clip than previously).
1 comment:
The real test, of course, will be seeing if the goalscoring continues to trend up - particularly even-strength - over the next season. I suspect that it will but the proof is always in the pudding.
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