With our Prospect Draft approaching I thought I would give my annual accounting of the top 12 prospects.
1. Tyler Seguin-L Bos
The one 'no-brainer' pick this year, Seguin is most likely to end up as a center when he makes the NHL full time, but his talent is undeniable. If any other player gets picked first overall I will be shocked worse than Darth Vader at the end of Return of the Jedi. The only downside is that as a natural pivot he's in a logjam behind three regulars (Savard, Krejci and Bergeron) and in competition with prospects Colborne and Hamill. There are no top 6 roster spots for him to jump into, so he'll likely spend another year in junior before making the show.
2. Cam Fowler-D Ana
The offense first rearguard fell on draft day because of concerns of his play in the defensive zone. Fortunately, FUNHL Gms could care less how well he plays in his own end, and only focus on the points he can produce - which are substantial. Described as a 'Mike Green' type, he is the prototype for FUNHL defenders. There is a need for him on the Ducks, but he will need a year or more in junior/minors before he stakes a claim to a regular role.
3. Brett Connolly-L TBay
A high risk/reward pick, Connolly is thought of as a fast Brett Hull. Unfortunately, he's had two hip surgeries that all but wiped out his last junior season. The Bolts are a good fit for him, but the chance he could end up hampered by a set of bad wheels is a big cautionary flag. He should be nurtured slowly by the new Bolts regime, so expect another year of junior, followed by a slow apprenticeship on the third line and 2nd powerplay unit. Will take off as St Louis starts to wind down.
4. Nino Neidereitter-R NYI
A strapping power forward with goal scoring ability, Neidereitter wowed at the WJC for Switzerland and then upped his game again at the Olympics where he was the most dangerous forward for his country every game. There is a real chance he makes the Islanders out of training camp given his advanced size and speed. The downside is that he is an Islander, a team that has a habit of turning prospects into suspects.
5. Erik Gudbranson-D Fla
The third overall selection at the NHL ED is an all-purpose work-horse defenseman. He's so good at everything his offense might be overlooked. Physically intimidating, defensively sound, and yet capable of handling himself in offensive situations, Gudbranson is one of the prospects most likely to be in the NHL sooner rather than later, and with Florida's weak defense corps could be elevated to a top 4 role quickly. Think Scott Stevens lite.
6. Ryan Johanssen-C Clb
A big power pivot play maker in the Ryan Getzlaf mold. The Bluejackets are drooling at the thought of him lining up next to Rick Nash, but the towering center will have to spend at least another year in juniors before he makes the show. Once he arrives there are few roadblocks to him assuming a top 6 forward spot.
7. Sean Couturier-C QMJHL
A huge skill centerman from the Quebec league, he lead that league in scoring last year. Compared to Vincent Lecavalier at the same age he is a top candidate (along with the WHL's wunderkind Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Swedish defenseman Adam Larsson) for 1st overall in the 2011 draft. A potential franchise player talent, to get him you'll have to burn a year of his eligibility. Also, make sure you don't call out 'Sylvain Couturier' as the former LA King forward is currently toiling in Germany and is unlikely to make an NHL comeback.
8. Jeff Skinner-R Car
The ex-figure skater is a pure sniper. A tad undersized, he nevertheless scored 50 times in junior and has the kind of talent that can overcome concerns about his skating, or the fact he will eventually have to play for the Hurricanes.
9. Tyler Ennis-L Buf
Skinny (164lbs), short (5'7"), and unbelievably skilled (he tore up the AHL last year with 65pts in 69 games), Ennis is more than a year older than most prospects and could be ready to make an impact immediately. He has a lot of odds against him, but a top 6 forward role is possible for the Sabres, and in a short call up last season he demonstrated close to ppg ability (9pts in 10 games). If he can avoid injury, he might be a top ROY candidate.
10. Jonathon Blum-D Nsh
A moderately sized defenseman (6'1", 180lbs), Blum is an offense first guy who has had two years to mature in minors. A future powerplay QB, his offensive instincts are what will get him to the Predators roster despite lots of young talent on their blue-line ahead of him. His numbers in junior were impressive, but at the AHL he played a full season injury free, and was over a ppg in the playoffs (8pts in 7games).
11. Oliver Ekman-Larsson-D Phx
Same story as Blum above, except that he has had one less year to marinate in the Swedish league, and has fewer competitors ahead of him on the Coyotes roster. A slick skating offensive defenseman, he is a future powerplay QB for the future Winnipeg Jets.
12. Ondrej Pavelec-G Atl
Traditionally I reserve the 12th spot for a Flames prospect, but this year, the pickings are pretty slim. Greg Nemisz is the best of the lot, but barring an improvement in his skating speed he is a long shot to be anything other than a Darren McCarty type. Ryan Howse is a pure goal scorer, but lacks so many other dimensions that it is difficult to project a top 6 forward spot for his future. The rest are 3rd line checkers (Bill Arnold, Mitch Wahl) and defensive defenders (Matt Pelech, Tim Erixon), so for this year, a Flame prospect is not in the cards as far as I can see.
Enter Pavelec. He is the clear likely starter for the Thrashers, but given their enormous problems defensively, he is highly unlikely to be drafted outright, even as a backup. As a prospect though, he is about perfect. A terrific minor career, a wicked save %, and the fact he chased the injury prone Lehtonen out of town, makes him a goaltender to watch. As the D improves in front of him, the future Quebec Nordiques netminder should have a long and productive career.
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