Lottery or No Lottery?
I put forth the following proposal regarding slot selection determination.
Implimentaion 2011-2012 determined by this coming year.
During the course of the FuNHL regular season, a franchise is awarded 12 points for finishing a week with the most Predator Cup points. All remaining teams are awarded points in decreasing increments of 1 for thier standing during any given week. We will call these points Slot Selction Points (SSL) for this proposal.
eg. 12 SSL points for most Predator Cup points down to 1 point for fewest Predator Cup points per week. This gives a franchise the possibility to accumulate up to 240 SSL points (12 points/week x 20 weeks), or as few as 20.
At years end the franchise with the most SSL points selects thier ED slot first, the next selection goes to the franchise with the next highest SSL points until each franchise has selected thier ED slot.
Final Predator Cup standing would determine the winner in the case of ties.
I feel this system is unbiased and rewards franchises accordingly.
6 comments:
Well if we are going with Predator Cup weeks - we don't have to stop at week 20 but can use the full 27 week schedule.
This is an interesting suggestion Mike but who is going to keep tabs of the SSLs during the year? The next, and even better, question is whether this is somehow superior to the current system. Unfortunately, it isn't and that will be clear in a second.
There are a total number of 2106 SSLs up for grabs in a 27 week season (btw why have you abbreviated Slot Selection Points SSL??!). If you finished first every week you would have 324 SSLs (27*12). This results in 15.38%, or exactly the same chance as the 12 chips out of 78 that we use now. Presumably even the top team won't win every week so thier % would be worse than what we give them now.
At the other end, a team finishing last every week for 27 weeks would have only 27 SSLs out of 2106 resulting in a 1.28% chance of selecting first - yes, exactly the same as our 1 chip system currently. Assuming that even the worst FunHL team won't finish dead last every week their chance of getting the first choice would be even higher than what the one chip system gives them currently.
It seems a very complicated system to produced only marginally differnt results than we get currently.
I must sound like Doug's echo chamber but his stats are correct - might as well keep the current lottery.
In my post I made a typo. SSL is supposed to read SSP.
We should not be dipping into our math skills here. Percentges are rather mute.
The slot selection system we have now is not entirely based on performance.
The awarding of chips is skewed unevenly.
11.1 The Slot Selection draft lottery is weighted by giving 12 ballots to the franchise that finished last and won the Herbivore trophy. From then on, the Predator Cup Champion receives 11 ballots, second place 10, third place 9 and so on, with the eleventh place team from the previous season receiving a single ballot.
I feel this system is not reflective of the nature of competition.
With my proposal, there is clearly more to strive for than just a trophy.
The matter of keeping track of SSP points can easily be tallied by the stats guy, or failing that, I volunteer since it is my proposal.
Please give this proposal more thought, and you shall see the merits of it.
With respect to no longer skewing the Slot Selection in favour of the worst team, I am all on board - as I think almost all GMs are - but the rest of the system is really complicated to produce, essentially, the same odds as lining the teams up 1-12 and lining up the chips 12-1.
I'm really busy this weekend so I may not get a chance to do it but why not run the numbers from last season's stats and see what the SSPs would be for every team as compared to simply lining them up from 1-12. This might give a better indication of whether your system is giving you the result you seek. (Which I presume is to give teams an incentive to keep working hard week after week.)
One advantage of this system that I will grant you is that the 12th placed team may not be able to move to 11th place in the final week of the season but he might be able to have the league's best weekly total in that final week, and that might be enough to change his Slot Selection ranking - which may be the incentive you need.
I think there is potential here but you need to show HOW it will work, using last year's experience, to illustrate it.
I would be more than glad to do that.
Since you are the stats guy, can you forward the weekly stats from the last 2 seasons?
Hi Mike,
e-mailed you the last two seasons this morning.
Curious to see how it shakes out.
Doug
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