NEXUS - Pre Draft Team Assessment

The Nexus - Team Assessment - September 2009

The Nexus has been in hibernation for awhile … but the editor has a lot of extra time on his hands (and sitting around on his butt) these days so he decided to make a pre-entry draft assessment of overall team strength based on various categories.

This assessment takes a somewhat different angle than Cam’s (his is based on position strength and goes into a deeper commentary on specific players). Cam’s article was great – the Nexus probably takes even greater risk of receiving complaints / scorn / dismissal due to the perhaps erroneous inclusion of the last category “intangibles”. I will accept all scorn - now and post season.

Remember, this is NOT at all a prediction on how your team will do this season!! Its a whole new ballgame after the Entry Draft!

CATEGORY DESCRIPTIONS:

FPs – mainly based on value NOW but also taking into account future value (i.e. improving, length of service) Weight – 40%

Prospects – players and current picks; mainly based on value NOW (i.e. can they help the team this year) but also taking into account future value Weight – 30%

Other assets – looking at RFAs and/or picks from next year …. RFA value is not as significant in this author’s eyes as per others GMs…. but the Nexus acknowledges that good RFAs and/or a fair number of decent/good RFAs can help Weight - 15%

Intangibles – GM’s experience, history, etc. Weight - 15%

SCORING

Geez, Cam’s system is easier. Too late. I made more complex by categories having different strengths and also adding a grade to the numerical score. I’ve explained it more clearly during Bladerunners assessment. Lowest value for a category is a D.

A = 10…A- = 9…B+ = 8 …B = 7 …B- = 6 …C+ =5 …C =4 ...C- = 3… D+ =2…D=1

BLADERUNNERS (7.9 “B+”)

FPs: B (7 x 0.4 = 2.8) … I gave my FPs a B which equals a score of 7 out of a possible 10 which is then multiplied by 40% for a category rating of 2.8 out of a max. possible score of 4 .. yup, I’m a geek
• Iginla is likely the best RW in the league and Hossa is in the top handful… however Hossa is not turning out to be as elite a Rwer as hoped + is also out for first 2 months of the season

Prospects A- (9 x 0.3 = 2.7) i.e. 2.7/3
• Backstrom appears to be an elite center now and bumps the rating up on his own; at least one of Stamkos and Giroux have an above average shot at playing this year; Filatov is ranked as an elite prospect who’s time is close; Franson and Kindl are biding their time to make an impact (Franson closer than Kindl); picks for this year are okay but none in top round

Other assets B+ (8 x 0.15 = 1.2) … i.e. 1.2 / 1.5
• a handful of decent d-men RFAs and a good goalie RFA in Miller (could be very good if he plays 70 games and Buffalo plays some def); extra 1st and 2nd rnd pick next year

Intangibles B+ (8 x 0.15 = 1.2)…i.e. 1.2/1.5
• the Bladerunners have a pool obsessed GM, a good history with 2 Predator cups and some other hardware and are a yearly contender … however, they haven’t found a way to get over the hump the past few years to get that elusive 3rd cup

GREAT WHITES (6.8 “B”)

FPs: C+ (5 x 0.4 = 2) i.e. 2/4
• Staal is above average, young, and all signs are that he can be great as he has had a 100pt season but Richards no longer appears to be FUNHL FP material although he could dress as a 2nd line C for now (he’s more of an FP type in the NHL world)

Prospects: A- (9 x 0.3 = 2.7)
• Stastny joins E.Staal for a nice 1-2 punch at C this season; Doughty + Price both useful now; Tavares may not have a significant impact this year but has huge upside (FP to be?); other prospects are interesting and with a top pick this year the prospect stable looks great

Other assets: B (7 x 0.15 = 1.05)
• Vanek in the late 2nd round is nice and the team has a couple of further good RFAs in Michalek and Edler; less RFAs than past years for this team but the prospect stable more than makes up for this

Intangibles: B (7 x 0.15 = 1.05)
• The Great Whites have a skilled + experienced GM and a storied history as demonstrated by 3 Predator Cups …however, its been awhile since a cup run has been made so its time to bring the fear back to the competition; hmm, a B might be a bit low on further thought as this team always looks nice on paper at start of each year (with slight exception of the 2nd FP at the moment)

RAMAPITHICIES (6.45 “B-”)

FPs: B- (6 x 0.4 = 2.4)
• Chara is an above average, almost elite perhaps FP … well, he’s elite when he has a season with good scoring and lots of penalty minutes; Tanguay is on the cusp but maybe has some life left him, especially playing with some nice line-mates in Tampa (for those who think Chara is actually an ongoing elite FP – bump this category up to a B)

Prospects: B (7 x 0.3 = 2.1)
• Turris is one of the few promising things in the Phoenix mess; Johnson & Johnson and Russell could all contribute this season; there are a couple/few more interesting prospects and a top prospect pick + some extra picks

Other assets: B- (6 x 0.15 = 0.9)
• Weber and Brown are nice, a couple of centers that could have an impact

Intangibles: B (7 x 0.15 = 1.05)
• The Ramapithicines’ GM has led them to two predator cups so he knows how to go for it … preparation for the season or WDs doesn’t “seem” important but confidence and experience seems to make up for this; the league waits for the cavemen to reappear as a contender

HIGHLANDERS (8.35 “B+”)

FPs: A (10 x 0.4 = 4)
• Crosby is of course an elite center (arguably the best) and Brodeur is one of the elite goalies who should bounce back from last year’s freak injury vacation

Prospects: A- (9 x 0.3 = 2.7)
• Green is an elite d-man who appears to be the league’s #1 d-man now; Gagner is a nice center prospect; Voracek is a nice RW prospect and there is some future potential with other RW prospects; the team has no 1st rnd pick this year but the prospect situation looked much worse early in the summer

Other assets: D (1 x 0.15 = .15)
• Uh well, nothing to report but this is due to gunning for it last season and trading away RFAs + prospects; further trading of picks from next year hurts this category BUT it brought the Prospect category up to a A- with an awesome rebuilding of the prospect stable which was non-existent (except for Green) at beginning of the summer

Intangibles: A (10 x 0.15 = 1.5)
• The Highlanders have a great histotry with 3 Predators; their pool obsessed GM fought to the end for a potential 4th last year; the GM is always “on top of things” (that sounds worse than what is meant) and is a feared yearly contender

EDGE (6.4 “B-”)

FPs: A (score = 10 x 0.4 = 4)
• Geez, just having one of these FPs would still give a high rating…who has a better pairing than Ovechkin and Thornton? (the Severed Heads and Highlanders will compare once Malkin and Green become FPs)…ok Collin, no Herby allowed this year or your punishment will be to release these two FPs (new rule proposal ;-)

Prospects: C- (3 x 0.3 = 0.9)
• the most (only?) notable thing in the category is the Edge have the 1st overall prospect pick which should produce a nice prospect or some further assets if traded

Other assets: B- (6 x 0.15 = 0.9)
• Smyth and Havlat are nice if they can be picked ‘later’ and there is some d-man depth

Intangibles: C (4 x 0.15 = 0.6)
• The Edge are yet to have the pleasure of owning the Predator cup although several GMs would love to be in Collin’s shoes with the 2 FPs he has … team has had some bad karma with injury bugs although a bit more prep time and somehow finding a bit more time to avoid dressing injured players on a weekly basis would pay dividends

LOST BOYS (6.65 “B”)

FPs: B+ (8 x 0.4 = 3.2)
• Kovalchuk is a top notch LW who could be even better if he had some good line mates and Nash is a skilled RW who might be considered elite if he also got some line mates (and if Hitchcock lets his skilled players actually play)

Prospects: B- (6 x 0.3 = 1.8)
• Bailey and Boedker have promise; Rask has promise but has hit P4 status too soon (Gm needs to decide if he says adios to Rask or keeps him one more year as a P4 and pray he gets traded / Thomas blows up); Lost Boys have their own 1st and 2nd picks and the Edge’s 2nd which should help rejuvenate the prospect corps

Other assets: B (7 x 0.15 = 1.05)
• M.Koivu is nice (hey, I remember trading him to Richard 3 years ago!) and there is a lot of depth with the defense RFAs

Intangibles: C ( 4 x 0.15 = 0.6)
• The Lost Boys are a young team and therefore their GM is not yet a “Vet”; the GM also took last year off … experience can only help along with some more time to manage the team

PERSONAL VENDETTA (6.9 “B”)

FPs: A- (aggregate score = 9 x 0.4 = 3.6)
• Zetterberg + Lidstrom are stud FPs … even though Zetterberg is turning out to perhaps be an 85 pt rather than 100 pt type of guy and Lidstrom is possibly starting to fade a bit, echo – they are still stud FPs for the present

Prospects: C- (3 x 0.3 = 0.9)
• winning the Predator took a bite out of the stable; there are a couple of interesting prospects that might yet increase in value and if Harding gets traded, he should be a starting goalie; how the heck did Darrell manage to keep his 1st rnd pick? (this helped bring rating to a C- ;-)

Other assets: B- (6 x 0.15 = 0.9)
• some nice d-men RFAs behind Lidstrom … somewhat doubtful that Bryzgalov is going to stick around as the Vendetta’s starting goalie or back-up (but go for it Darrell ;-)

Intangibles: A (10 x 0.15 = 1.5)
• The PV are the defending champs (so their team rating could be a D and Darrell could still just point to the cup); the PV have now won the Predator 3 times; the GM is a machine and contends year after year; GM also has reputation as the best FUNHL drafter… enough said

KNIGHTS TEMPLAR (6.0 “B-”)

FPs: C- (3 x 0.4 = 1.2)
• uggh … that’s out of the GM’s mouth, and the rest of us agree – time to replace the FPs although to be fair, Turco and Hejduk are both ‘good players’ that can dress (although that isn’t the definition of an FP)…. How does Parise and Perry sound for a new FP pairing which would of course bump the rating up considerably

Prospects: B+ (8 x 0.3 = 2.4)
• led by Kane who is instantly a top Rwer and potential FP at some point…closely followed by Ryan who is a nice Lwer; some other interesting prospects along with an extra pick in the 1st rnd ….things are looking good here

Other assets: A (10x 0.15 = 1.5)
• umm, Perry and Kopitar… followed by Lucic, Franzen and Horcoff … tied with the Wolves for best RFAs

Intangibles: B- (6 x 0.15 = 0.9)
• A vet who hasn’t yet seen the promised land…has been awhile since finishing in top 3 but always seems to draft pretty well….taking a few more risks on the trade front might help but that’s just an opinion

WOLVES (8.2 “B+”)

FPs: B (7 x 0.4 = 2.8)
• Gaborik is perhaps the most skilled RW in the league (and this coming from the GM who has Iginla) but is also a skating time bomb … veteran Pronger is a VG pt and pm combo deal who leads Philly’s def

Prospects: A (10 x 0.3 = 3.0)
• Holy crap… and if you don’t know what I mean, take a look at the Master …Toews is FP material and several will make an impact soon and/or will definitely help as trade assets

Other assets: A (10 x 0.15 = 1.5)
• Phaneuf (FP?) leads a pack of quality RFA; again – just took a look at the Master, holy crap

Intangibles: B- (6 x 0.15 = 0.9)
• a vet from the beginning …. is it bad luck stopping this GM from winning or just not finding that extra ‘something’ to start contending more often? He seems to do well in playoff pools but that doesn’t help here… IMO the early rounds of the draft need a bit of work (this GM sometimes tends to draft players in the 1st / 2nd /3rd rnd that others GMs would draft in the 2nd/3rd /4th rnd respectively; lots of work last season to build up the team’s assets so let’s see what happens….

SCOURGE (6.0 “B-”)

FPs: A- (9 x 0.4 = 3.6)
• almost gave a B+ as Spezza doesn’t seem to be hitting his potential but both these FPs at the top of their game are elite FPs

Prospects: B (7 x 0.3 = 2.1)
• I like the Scourge’s prospects, especially VanRiemsdyk, but none are likely to help this year (nice trade value though or waiting game)

Other assets: B (7 x 0.15 = 1.05)
• Carter is perhaps Philly’s best player now and might even be FP material in near future; there are also a few other RFAs that could contribute

Intangibles: C+ (5 x 0.15 = 0.75)
• not a rookie anymore… pays lots of attention and will keep getting better (especially if he decides to ever pull the strings on a deal with the Bladerunners… okay, just a comment ;-)

SEVERED HEADS (8.5 “A-”)

FPs: B (7 x 0.4 = 2.8)
• although his character is in question, Heatley on LW is still a top notch FP but Elias, especially as a C, gives the score a hit (Elias is of course soon to be toasted and this category gets an A the moment Malkin is a FP)

Prospects: A- (9 x 0.3 = 2.7)
• Setoguchi and Kessel are good Rwers who will both contribute now (well, Kessel will when healthy) and Hall is an excellent future asset + potential FP, a couple/few other prospects here look interesting as well

Other assets: A (10 x 0.15 = 1.5)
• Malkin being turned into an FP is all it takes to get a 10.. Hartnell is a nice RFA too

Intangibles: A (10 x 0.15 = 1.5)
• The Severed Heads have a great history with 2 Herb… I mean, 3 Predator Cups, are always going for it, are on top of things and have built a strong team again going into this season (actually, strongest team as I add everybody up) …all this along with lots of confidence year after year

SHADOWMEN (8.1 “B+”)

FPs: A- (9 x 0.4 = 3.6)
• Luongo is working on proving he is best goalie on the planet and St. Louis is up there in the top handful of Rwers (he seems to get a little less respect than he deserves IMO); after several years, Bob can finally boast of having an elite FP tandem to start the season …not sure who the pairing will be by Christmas

Prospects: B+ (8 x 0.3 = 2.4)
• Okposo and Oshie will hopefully contribute this seasonand the Shadowmen have four (yup, still!) 1st round picks to replenish the stable; this category is looking really good - assuming the GM doesn’t trade these picks away in the next 2 days

Other assets: B- (6 x 0.15 = 0.9)
• Good RFA depth on RW with Burrows and with Knuble now in WSH, Koivu might dress; down picks in next year’s prospect draft

Intangibles: B+ (8 x 0.15 = 1.2)
• The Shadowmen haven’t scared anyone the past several years (i.e. haven’t had the gas to last much past Christmas the past several years)… now with great FPs and lots of prospect assets, this team can get back into contender status and we know they can thrive as this is a savvy GM

RANKINGS (remember, this is NOT a prediction of how teams will do this season but rather an assessment of current team strength – I reserve the right to be wrong)

1. Severed Heads 8.50 A-
2. Highlanders 8.35 B+
3. Wolves 8.20 B+
4. Shadowmen 8.10 B+
5. Bladerunners 7.80 B+
6. Pers. Vendetta 6.90 B
7. Great Whites 6.80 B
8. Lost Boys 6.65 B
9. Ramapithicines 6.45 B-
10. Edge 6.40 B-
11T Knights Templar 6.00 B-
11T Scourge 6.00 B-