Who Will Win?

Who is better positioned to win the Predator Cup this year? Good question. The Highlanders hold a very small lead (even smaller after Friday night - at the moment I have it at about one point) but the question of who can finally nail this down is a tough one to answer.

Up to now.

So far we have 22 and a half weeks under our belts and the Bladerunners have the edge. In 12 of those 22 weeks, the Bladerunners outscored the Highlanders, 12-10 is close but this isn't about close. In the first eleven weeks, the edge was 6/5 for the Bladerunners - same thing in the last eleven weeks, 6/5. Not much to pick between them but the advantage certainly goes to the defending champs.

Lets go by position:

Left-Wing.

The Bladerunners have the advantage here on the basis of both strength and depth. On paper the Highlander top two of Kariya and Gagne are impressive names but the game isn't played on paper and the quintet of Bladerunner port-siders have been really strong this year. Injuries will always play a key role in any stretch run but while the Straka injury requires some fine tuning by the Bladerunners, the Highlanders really take a step back in having to play R.Clowe instead of T.Holmstrom. Give the left-wing lock to the Bladerunners.

Center.

Here is where the Highlander should hope to make some hay. Crosby, Thornton and one of Savard or Briere should outscore any center. Lecavalier is fantastic, and only getting better, but as good as the Staals have been - the best combination of Nashville pivots and Staals can't compete. This position goes to the Kilted Ones.

Right Wing.

The Highlanders might have hoped to hold their own here with Selanne, Alfredsson and Gaborik but the numbers of late favour the Bladerunners. Two FPs in Hossa and Iginla have been fantastic and whenever Crosby does kick it into gear, Recchi always gets his share. It is close, but one has to give the advantage to the Bladerunners.

Defense.

This was supposed to be the big Highlander advantage but two injuries to Kaberle and now Pronger may have tilted the advantage to the Bladerunners. Gonchar and Zubov is pretty much a saw off. Are Souray and Timonen really any better than Boyle and Visnovsky (now back from his own injury)? McCabe or Campbell? Bieksa, Liles and Bouwmeester vs Meszaros, Zhitnik and Salo? Perhaps the Highlanders still have an edge but it is far less of one that they looked to have even two weeks ago. Pronger could be back in two weeks and the Toronto media would like you to believe that Kaberle could return as well, for that reason only I'm still going to give the Highlanders the nod at this position but it comes with a big caveat.

Goaltending.

Kipprusoff vs Hasek. That's at least what it should be but it has often been Giguere vs Dipietro over the last few weeks and perhaps that's how it should be. Both the Highlanders and the Bladerunners have done very well with their alternate netminder. Giguere's risk is that he will be spelled off by Bryzgalov from time to time while their prefered choice, Hasek, is one circus save away from being gone for the season. The advantage has to go to the Bladerunners here but the position may be the one area that may surprise the most.

Toughness.

The Highlanders are really choosing from three players: Souray, McCabe and with injuries making it necessary, Bieksa. The Bladerunners also pick from three: Meszaros, Blake and Staal. While the numbers over the whole season favour the Highlanders, that trio's big numbers tend to come from a few big minute games while the Bladerunners' are more of a steady drip of pims. With the playoffs getting ever closer, I would put my money on the slow and steady method. I'm going to give a slight nod to the Bladerunners but in so doing will have to say that TG points are not likely to impact the final result.

So in the end, the edge of positions goes to the Bladerunners - which is probably how it should be. They are the defending champions after all. The Highlanders, notwithstanding their very slight lead in the standings (one that has all but evaporated this week) are the true underdogs. Having said that, here is a number to watch for. 18pts. The Bladerunners have never ended a weel more than 18pts out of first. If the Highlanders can find a way to open up such a gap then they may just be able to hold the Bladerunners off. It doesn't seem likely to occur given the back-and-forth nature of the race since the 2nd WD but the one thing that the Highlanders team has shown itself to be capable of is an explosive night or two. Given the talent on both squads, one night could be all it takes to end this race once and for all.

Drop the puck.