1/12/2013
Key NHL and FUNHL Dates for 2013 Season
Key dates for the 2013 schedule:
Opening Day: Saturday, Jan. 19
Scotiabank Hockey Day in Canada: Saturday, Feb. 9
Hockey Day in America: Sunday, Feb. 17
Trade deadline: Wednesday, Apr. 3
Regular season concludes: Saturday, Apr. 27
NHL Draft Drawing: Monday, Apr. 29
Stanley Cup Playoffs begin: Tuesday, Apr. 30
Latest possible date for Stanley Cup Final: Friday, June 28
And Here We Go...
The Great Whites to defend the Predator Cup...
An Eleven Week Challenge Cup Regular Season; A One game Semi-Final and a Best of Three Callenge Final
And of course the Omnivore,
Week one LineUps due Friday, January 18th by 6pm MST.
After that From Week 2 on, LineUps due Monday at 6pm MST.
FUNHL Trade Deadline is Monday, April 8th by LineUps at 6pm given the NHL Trade deadline is Wed., April 3rd.
Now There will be ONLY ONE WAIVER DRAFT this year at the half-way mark. After the WD there shall be NO penalty for prospect use via the IR. Pre-WD there will the usual penalty if IR is used.
The Waiver Draft Date needs to Determined ASAP. I believe either the weekend of March 23/24th or
March 30/31th would suffice but the DC and the league needs to be involved for this being made official.
Thoughts?
Otherwise, DROP THE PUCK!
BC for the DC
1/10/2013
Great Whites 2013
The Great Whites
L: Pacioretty-Mtl, Lupul-Tor, Brown-LA RFA, Umberger-Clb RFA
Rating: 2
A lot has to go right for this collection of left wingers to be anything other than average or worse. Pacioretty is on the upswing of his career, and has 30 goal talent with a good playmaking center riding shotgun. Lupul is line-dependent, and has bounced from team to team to team because he lacks consistency in tapping his talent. Brown is the end-game product that Pacioretty could become, a gritty goal scoring forward who is hard to play against. Umberger is utility forward with a weightlifters build who can slot in to any forward spot outside of the top line. All four are high injury risk players who rarely, if ever, play a full season.
C: Giroux-Pha FP, Couture-SJ RFA, Henrique-NJ RFA, Fisher-Nsh RFA
Rating: 3.5
Giroux is a sublime offensive talent capable of leading the league in scoring. Couture has gradually developed into an above average 2nd line center, albeit one whose ceiling may have been reached. Henrique has a good base of skills to develop from, but as of yet he hasn't shown he can be a true top end producer. Fisher is a #1 center in Nsh by default, but is really better suited to a 2nd role on a deeper team. Fisher could easily take over Henrique's spot if he falters.
R: Pavelski-SJ, Doan-Phx, Neil-Ott RFA, Peverley-Bos RFA, Stone-Ott P1
Rating: 2.5
Pavelski is an all-round utility forward who can play anywhere from the top line wing to the 3rd line center. Unfortunately, he is not a powerplay specialist of any kind (not an elite; shooter, passer, or net crasher), but is a solid defensive specialist - so his ice-time tends to skew towards the non-scoring kind. Doan is playing out the string of a borderline hall of fame career, but is best suited as a depth (3rd line or lower) at this stage of his FUNHL evaluation. Neil has the ability to be an elite FUNHL enforcer, but t's been two or three years since he's produced like that - largely because of injuries and diminishing role of the fighter. Peverley is a nifty universal forward who can be spotted (like Pavelski) all over an NHL lineup. Like Pavelski though, he lacks any elite offensive gifts that would open up significant powerplay opportunities for him. Stone is a terrific gunner with an aresenal of shots, fakes, and feints. If his skating can get up to league average he could terrorize goaltenders for a long time. If the GW's could add a top end elite producer each player would slot more appropriately (Pavelski as a #2, Doan as #3), as it stands, they will likely be overmatched at each slot.
D: Weber-Nsh, Giordano-Cgy, Bogosian-Wpg, Spurgeon-Min RFA, Faulk-Car RFA, Seidenberg-Bos RFA, Klein-Nsh RFA, Brewer-TBay RFA, Depres-Pit P3, Murphy-Car P3, Murray-Clb P2, Ceci-Ott P1, Reinhart-NYI P1, Ristolainen-SEL P1
Rating: 3
Weber is simply a beast, albeit a beast with a question mark as to how he will perform without side-kick Ryan Suter. Giordano is a feisty undersized two-way defenseman with grit and energy in the mold of Kevin Bieksa. Unfortunately the arrival of powerplay specialist Wideman to the Calgary blue-line will likely steal from his ice-time there. Bogosian is tracking a similar development path to Shea Weber, big, bruising, productive defenseman who can play in all situations. May never have the offensive totals of Weber (he lacks the overpowering shot), but all the other elements are there. He's also injury prone, and is just recovered from off-season wrist surgery. Spurgeon may have already peaked as an NHL powerplay specialist (ala MA Bergeron), as the arrival of Suter in Min is likely to erase the role he is best suited for. Faulk is developing nicely in Carolina and if he stays on track could become the GW's legit #4 this year. Seidenberg is a gamble at +/-, or Chara getting hurt, but not much more. Klein has Weber's size and shot, but none of his accuracy or mobility, as such he'll likely plateau as a depth FUNHL defender. Brewer is the ultimate 'all tools, no tool box' defenseman. He's big, skates well, is physical, etc., but can't seem to ever put together anything like an elite season defensively or offensively. And then we have the prospects! No secret the GW's LOVE their D-man prospects, and why not? They have almost all of them! Depres is among a cadre of D developing in the Pittsburgh system, but unlike the others (Morrow, Pouliot, Maata, etc.), Depres is more two-way than offensive or defensively minded - which may make it easier to plug him onto the Pens sooner rather than later. Murphy and Murray are both Scott Niedermayer-lite, fast skating offensive D-men capable of playing in all situations, and likely to be screwed up permanently by their coaches from ever having a Paul Coffey like breakthrough. Ceci is a nice addition to his group, and will get plenty of time to learn his craft before Ottawa brings him up - did not make the Canadian WJC team. Reinhart did make the team, but frankly sucked after doing so. Has impressive size, skating ability and reach, but it doesn't look like he is processing the game at the right level yet as he makes bad passes, and poor defensive reads that he should be moving beyond by now. Impressive physical specimen he could be fast-tracked by the Islanders (i.e., he makes the team this year). Ristolainen is an offensive defenseman out of Finland hoping to crack the top 10 of next years ED, or to put it another way, he was the GW lock-out insurance.
G: Price-Mtl FP, Varlamov-Col RFA, Campbell-Dal P3
Rating: 4
Price is an elite netminder behind a less than elite defense that is clearly in flux. Varlamov has taken over in Colorado and appears to be the future of their goaltending. Campbell is a highly regarded prospect that has had two poor/injury filled years in a row for Dallas' farm team. Hopes remain high, but he's still a ways from cracking an NHL lineup.
Total: 15
Blade Runners 2013
The Blade Runners
L: Sharp-Chi, Heatley-Min, Foligno-Clb RFA, Sullivan-Phx RFA, Landeskog-Col P2
Rating: 2.5
Sharp always has a home on one of the top two lines in Chicago, whether it is as a 1st line LW or 2nd line C, and his ppg-ish pace rates as a solid if average 1st line winger. Heatley. Ah Heatley. The steady and unbroken decline of his game from the heights of his 50goal 100pt seasons in Ottawa continues unabated. His wheels are no longer even average, and he's rapidly becoming a spot-shooting powerplay specialist with an untradeable contract hit. If he has a 'come to Jesus' moment and takes up fitness with a religious zeal he might carve out a 3rd act to his career that mirrors Owen Nolan's or Gary Roberts, but I wouldn't hold my breath. Foligno is a rough and tumble sort with enough skills to ply his trade from the 2nd or 3rd line, as a FUNHL player though, he's bordering on merely replacement level. Sullivan's body needs constant repair, and if he didn't rebound for decent totals in Pittsburgh, he isn't going to suddenly do so in Phoenix. Landeskog should leapfrog everyone but Sharp on the depth chart and become a solid if average 2nd line winger at the FUNHL level in his sophmore year.
C: Stamkos-TBay FP, Backstrom-Wsh FP, Benn-Dal RFA, Ott-Buf RFA, Johanssen-Clb P3, MacKinnon-OHL P2
Rating: 5
The rating assumes that Backstrom's injury isn't super serious, because if he is healthy, it's the deepest and most talented set of pivots in the league. Stamkos is a fast Brett Hull, Backstrom is a fast Adam Oates, and Benn is quickly rising into the class of big-skill 2-way pivots that includes Anze Kopitar. So, yeah, that would be 3 no. 1 pivots the roster is built around. Ott is a dirtbag, but he's never expected to dress except in case of emergency, and even then Johanssen could probably jump ahead of him. MacKinnon is the future - and despite a moderate to weak WJC performance, the future looks bright.
R: Purcell-TBay, Voracek-Pha, Jagr-Dal, Clarckson-NJ RFA, Tarasenko-StL P3, Yakupov-Edm P2
Rating: 3
If at the end of the year the order of RW's was completely reversed (Yakupov, Tarasenko, Clarckson as the top 3) would anyone be totally surprised? Purcell is something of an enigma to me, he's big, strong, and decently skilled, but I don't trust late bloomers to retain their stats year over year. Voracek is a very good possession winger guaranteed to have a decent centerman, but he often seems less than the sum of his parts. Jagr is still ridiculously skilled and dominant on the wall and half-boards, but his in-game speed has clearly declined significantly. If he can avoid another groin injury (good luck with that), he could flirt with a ppg. Clarckson is a nice hybrid goon/scorer, but his volatility (and the presence of other decent RW with more reliable offense) makes giving him a roster spot iffy. Tarasenko has immense talent and could step right into one of StLouis' top lines. Yakupov had a cruddy WJC, but he still flashes a Mogilny/Gartner skill-set that could mesh well with Edmonton's youth movement.
D: Subban-Mtl RFA, Kronwall-Det, Goligoski-Dal, Petry-Edm RFA, Quincey-Det RFA, Josi-Nsh RFA, Gilbert-Min RFA, Ekman-Larsson-Phx P3, Hamilton-Bos P2
Rating: 2.5
The top three is nice; Subban, Kronwall and Goligoski, and Ekman-Larsson could move into the top 4, but Gilbert? Quincey? Josi? Jeff Petry? Yikes. Subban is the all-round heavy minute workhorse teams love to build around, and may flirt with FP quality stats. Kronwall is not and never will be the next Lidstrom. He is however, the next Konstantinov, which is pretty good, but not great. Goligoski was the price extracted from Pitt for coughing up 40 goal scorer James Neal. He's a slick pp QB with occasional injury issues. If everything goes right in Dallas he could compete with Subban for best offensive producer on the blue. Ekman-Larrson is emerging as a monster talent with all the right boxes checked off; size, speed, wingspan, runs the powerplay, heavy shot, safe in his own zone, quick first pass, etc. But he's in Phoenix where talent goes to shrivel and wither in the sun. Hamilton is probably a year away from being a productive D-man for Boston, but he is 'toolsy' in the way Ekman-Larsson is - only he's even bigger at 6'5". The rest (Gilbert, Quincey, Petry, Josi) are a stale collection of offensive defensemen without much offense, and AHL al-stars filling out an NHL rosters bottom rungs.
G: Quick-LA, Halak-StL RFA, Bernier-LA P2
Rating: 4.5
Hard to argue with Quick being the starting netminder, but if anyone can displace him it would be Halak in StLouis (after an Elliott injury). Bernier is the perfect prospect backup for Quick should he get injured.
Total: 17.5
1/09/2013
Challenge Cup Schedule
Hockey is back!! With the planned season start on January 19th and an end on April 27th the normal FunHL Challenge Cup schedule was not possible so I have modified things somewhat. The FunHL regular season will begin on January 19th with a short, two day game. Thereafter games will be held each week, Monday to Sunday, for the remainder of the 11 week regular season ending March 31st. Including the short two day game to start the regular season, every team will play one another once with the top four teams making the playoffs. The semi-finals will be a single-game elimination starting April 1st with the two winners to face off in the best of three final for the Challenge Cup starting April 8th.
Will the Barbarians be able to repeat after winning their first ever Challenge Cup? Finally, we will be able to find out. Drop the puck!
Will the Barbarians be able to repeat after winning their first ever Challenge Cup? Finally, we will be able to find out. Drop the puck!
ESPN NHL Pop and Paupers
Bruce Bennett/Getty ImagesCan Sidney Crosby and the Penguins recapture the Stanley Cup?
Who will raise the Stanley Cup in 2013? Will the 2009 champion Pittsburgh Penguins again hoist the trophy? Or will the Boston Bruins (2011 winners), Chicago Blackhawks (2010 champion) or Vancouver Canucks (2011 runner-up) take the title?
Those teams should be considered among this season's favorites according to VUKOTA, the projection system created by Tom Awad of Hockey Prospectus back in 2009. Named after Islanders tough guy Mick Vukota, VUKOTA is fundamentally a player projection system, and thus it projects individual statistics such as goals, assists, save percentage and games played -- summarized in another stat we callgoals versus threshold, or GVT. However, since team GVT is simply the sum of player GVTs, the sum of the VUKOTA GVT values for a team becomes our projection for the team's goal differential. On average, teams record one extra point in the standings for every three goals scored or prevented. Using this as a barometer, we're able to use that differential to project their finish in the standings. (Click here for a more detailed explanation of VUKOTA.)
VUKOTA gained credibility by correctly tabbing the up-and-coming Chicago Blackhawks as 2010 Western Conference champions. And as far as individual projections go, David Staples of the Edmonton Journal concluded that VUKOTA was the best for "predicting the point totals of Edmonton Oilers players" for the past two seasons.
The chart on the right outlines VUKOTA projections for the shortened 2013 NHL season, with its original 82-game projections and 48-game equivalents.
As demonstrated last season when the eighth-seeded Los Angeles Kings knocked off the sixth-seeded New Jersey Devils to capture the Stanley Cup, regular-season success, or lack thereof, doesn't necessarily predestine a team's fate in the postseason.
The playoffs are a crapshoot; even dominant teams shouldn't be considered to have more than a 25 percent chance of winning it all. What we can get a better handle on is how teams will do over the long haul of the regular season -- even when that "long haul" is a shorter haul of 48 games. So consider our projections more of a forecast regarding which team is likely to be the President's Trophy winner rather than the Stanley Cup champ.
Here's a look at top contenders, bubble teams and cellar-dwellers for the 2013 NHL season.
Top contenders
Pittsburgh Penguins -- Heading into the 2012 postseason, the Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin-led Penguins were installed as Cup favorites by Vegas after averaging a torrid 4.5 goals per game over the final month of the season. It didn't work out so well; Pittsburgh suffered a first-round ouster to rival Philadelphia as Marc-Andre Fleury was outplayed by Ilya Bryzgalov in an unexpected goal-fest. But with the under-the-radar summer acquisition of unappreciated goalie Tomas Vokoun, the Penguins may have fixed their only significant weakness.
Boston Bruins -- For the first time in the past few seasons, the Bruins' biggest question mark is in net, with Conn Smythe and two-time Vezina Award winner Tim Thomas stepping away from hockey, at least for the time being. The 25-year-old Tuukka Rask put up a near-Vezina season in 45 games as a younger man in 2009-10, but no one knows if he can carry the load over a full -- albeit 48-game -- season. Plus, the Bruins don't have a veteran backup as a safety net.
Vancouver Canucks -- The Canucks had the misfortune of facing a red-hot Kings team that was much better than their No. 8 seed indicated. By the time top forward Daniel Sedinreturned to the lineup and they had settled on Cory Schneider in net, it was too late to recover. It's easy to forget the Canucks were back-to-back President's Trophy winners.
Chicago Blackhawks -- The Blackhawks remain a top contender, masked by some recent playoff misfortune. Losing to a dominant Canucks squad in overtime of Game 7 in 2011 and getting stonewalled by Mike Smith despite outplaying the Coyotes in 2012 are excusable series losses. Chicago's biggest unknown is the quality of the next wave of youngsters coming up to reload the squad with more talent; depending on how they fare, the Blackhawks could remain solid or vault back up to a top contender for the next few seasons.
Los Angeles Kings -- As dominant as the Kings were in the playoffs (16-4), you might question why we don't have them installed as favorites. Aside from wondering whether they can keep up the motivation throughout another regular season (just ask the 2011-12 Bruins, who faded in the second half), the Kings' biggest question is between the pipes. As fantastic as Jonathan Quick was in 2011-12, goaltending performances are notoriously fleeting. Before last season, the soon-to-be 27-year-old hadn't proved to be anything more than a slightly above-average netminder -- and now he's coming off of back surgery. Conversely, though, one of the reasons L.A. was better than perceived going into the 2012 playoffs was its awful puck luck throughout most of the campaign, which turned around after the coaching change to Darryl Sutter, the acquisition of Jeff Carter and simply better fortune on its unsustainably poor shooting percentages.
Bubble teams
Minnesota Wild -- Even with the big free-agent additions of Zach Parise and Ryan Suter, Minnesota has only risen from our 30th-ranked team from last preseason (and it played like it for the second half of 2011-12) to a fringe playoff contender this campaign. The Wild have talent coming through the pipeline, but it's likely a season or two early for Minnesota.
Carolina Hurricanes and Toronto Maple Leafs -- Other teams that may have improved enough to plan for additional dates in May include the Hurricanes -- bolstered by "possession monster" Jordan Staal and Alexander Semin -- and the Maple Leafs. If you think back to last season, Toronto was right in the thick of the hunt at 48 games before its late-season collapse sent it to the draft lottery.
Cellar-dwellers
Columbus Blue Jackets -- At the other end of the spectrum, it's no shock that we foresee the Blue Jackets as most likely to finish last. Though they have picked up some building blocks for the future, the departure of Rick Nash won't help their short-term prospects.
Florida Panthers -- How about projecting last season's third-seeded Panthers as 29th in the league? Though Florida arguably has the league's most talented farm system, VUKOTA is bearish on the Panthers' prospects in the short term. A fortunate 18-7 record in overtime and the shootout helped them overcome a negative goal differential (minus-24). Florida's luck with "loser points" was similar to that of Anaheim in 2010-11, and we saw how that worked out for the Ducks in 2011-12.
Phoenix Coyotes and New Jersey Devils -- We also peg Western Conference finalist Phoenix and Cup finalist New Jersey as likely to fall from the postseason ranks. Expected regression by last season's top goaltender by GVT, Mike Smith, explains the Coyotes' fall, while the Devils have to deal with the departure of captain and top two-way forward Parise. That said, coaches Dave Tippett and Peter DeBoer have shown their ability to lift squads of mediocre talent, so it's possible that one or both of these teams will confound VUKOTA.
Final note
In terms of the projections, clearly some teams will do better than 61 points (prorated from 104 over 82 games) and worse than 47 points (prorated from 81). Likewise, chances are also good that the best and worst teams won't be the Penguins and Jackets. Why? Because some teams will have an unfair share of good and bad fortune in terms of both injuries and action on the ice.
What you see in our above projections are the most likely outcomes for each team, which end up more bunched up than they will be in reality. But there's no telling which teams will be the recipients of what kind of fortune. That's why they play the games.
1/06/2013
11/29/2012
Locked Out League - WTF? Edition
Ok, so in the last update I bragged about the fact that the Skywalkers were finally more or less healthy and ready to compete with the top teams.
Riiiiiiiiight.
Last night the Basketball Gods decided to mock me.
First, Andrei Kirilenko is one of my all-time favourite players. He's a renowned stat-stuffer, having on many occasions posted 5 or more in five categories; pts, assists, rebounds, steals, and blocks - AND his number is 47 (making him the ultra-cool 'AK47'), AND to top it off his wife publicly declared that it was OK for Andrei to have sex with other women while on the road. So yeah, all in all, everything you want to be in a basketball player. Well after picking up Kirilenko off the waiver wire and having him perform at an above average rate for my bye week, I was chuffed to get AK47 into my active lineup against Bob. Cue the mysterious 'back spasms' and a no-show for his Wednesday game. Arrgh.
Then when checking out the Raptors vs. Memphis tilt I discovered that Andrea Bargnani (the Anti-Kirilenko - the only thing Bargs can do well is shoot, and inefficiently at that - which for an athletic and quick 7footer is about as bizarre as it gets, but I digress) has a 'sore ankle' and wouldn't be playing. Negative Awesome.
But the real kicker?
Boston vs. Brooklyn erupted into a mini-brawl when Kris Humphries put a hard foul on Kevin Garnett. Which should be awesome for me, because I have neither Humphries nor Garnett! Except that the '3rd man in' was my franchise player and assist machine Rajon Rondo, and the one player tabbed by the refs for ejection in Brooklyn was not Humphries, but Skywalker SF Gerald Wallace.
To top it all off, JR Smith (another waiver wire pickup, and the worst player I dressed this week), fould himself out of his game in like 18 minutes, but not before posting a Corey Milne like -1 stat line for the evening. Thanks JR. We won't be renewing your contract.
To review, two undiscovered injuries, two players ejected for a brawl that neither were direct participants in, and 5th player posting a negative score. Ladies and gentleman, your Lethbridge Skywalkers!
Please. Kill. Me.
Riiiiiiiiight.
Last night the Basketball Gods decided to mock me.
First, Andrei Kirilenko is one of my all-time favourite players. He's a renowned stat-stuffer, having on many occasions posted 5 or more in five categories; pts, assists, rebounds, steals, and blocks - AND his number is 47 (making him the ultra-cool 'AK47'), AND to top it off his wife publicly declared that it was OK for Andrei to have sex with other women while on the road. So yeah, all in all, everything you want to be in a basketball player. Well after picking up Kirilenko off the waiver wire and having him perform at an above average rate for my bye week, I was chuffed to get AK47 into my active lineup against Bob. Cue the mysterious 'back spasms' and a no-show for his Wednesday game. Arrgh.
Then when checking out the Raptors vs. Memphis tilt I discovered that Andrea Bargnani (the Anti-Kirilenko - the only thing Bargs can do well is shoot, and inefficiently at that - which for an athletic and quick 7footer is about as bizarre as it gets, but I digress) has a 'sore ankle' and wouldn't be playing. Negative Awesome.
But the real kicker?
Boston vs. Brooklyn erupted into a mini-brawl when Kris Humphries put a hard foul on Kevin Garnett. Which should be awesome for me, because I have neither Humphries nor Garnett! Except that the '3rd man in' was my franchise player and assist machine Rajon Rondo, and the one player tabbed by the refs for ejection in Brooklyn was not Humphries, but Skywalker SF Gerald Wallace.
To top it all off, JR Smith (another waiver wire pickup, and the worst player I dressed this week), fould himself out of his game in like 18 minutes, but not before posting a Corey Milne like -1 stat line for the evening. Thanks JR. We won't be renewing your contract.
To review, two undiscovered injuries, two players ejected for a brawl that neither were direct participants in, and 5th player posting a negative score. Ladies and gentleman, your Lethbridge Skywalkers!
Please. Kill. Me.
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