Well, this is the culmination of an exercise that has been ongoing for just about every conversation I've had with poolies this off-season. Here are my thoughts - which of course should not be considered accurate nor particularly revealing.
1. The Knights Templar - Spezza-C Ott FP
No better time to replace an FP than when you have the top pick and a lousy FP well over 30 who isn't getting any better. Goodbye Naslund, hello Spezza.
2. The Highlanders - Kiprusoff-G Cgy
They were probably hoping Spezza would slip, and they'll consider Lecavalier, but Kipper is who they actually need.
3. Bladerunners - Lecavalier-C TBay
Brian might consider the best LW available but its my bet he can't pass up the higher scoring Lecavalier.
4. The Edge - St Louis-R TBay
Edge mgt. have to know there is a strong chance that the best three candidates for an FP will go exactly as predicted above, and so the Edge will hang on to Elias and not make an FP replacement gamble by dropping him. St Louis is a logical choice for the Edge as he fills a need, and is also the highest scoring player left on the board not a goaltender.
5. Personal Vendetta - Briere-C Pha
Darrell will pursue Briere for three reasons; he needs a centre desperately with Forsberg still a question mark, he's had Briere previously and loves the guy already, and there is still an outside chance Forsberg re-signs with Pha giving him a lethal 1-2 punch.
6. The Shadowmen - Lundqvist-G NYR FP
The Shadowmen have just dealt Sakic to the Wolves for a package of stuff, and I expect he'll look at the 25 year old puck-stopper to be his linchpin moving forward.
7. The Ramapithicines - Alfreddson-R Ott
In a shocking move the knuckledraggers take a forward with their first pick. But it's only shocking if you don't notice first that they have no elite forwards but do have a pretty stocked set of defensemen. Alfie is also a long time team favourite, and he fits both the teams needs and historical preferences.
8. The Lost Boys - Gonchar-D Pit
If there is a GM that has the same penchant for D-men that the knuckledraggers do, it's the guy in charge of the Lost Boys. Taking Gonchar here (and subsequently not trading him for a sandwhich and bag of pucks to Doug), will go a long way to rebuilding the GMs shattered psyche.
9. The Scourge - Zetterberg-L Det FP
I think there is an excellent chance that the Scourge GM will get either Zetterberg or Datsyuk at this spot. Given what I predict so far, he'll have his choice of the two and take the younger guy. Bye bye Mats Sundin.
10. The Wolves - Gagne-L Pha
The Wolves will be loaded at Centre (Sakic, Kopitar, Stastny), defense (Phaneuf) and goal (Luongo), and desperately need wingers at either side to fill the team out. So he'll curse the stars that Zetterberg goes immediately before he picks, and select the next best option on his list.
11. The Severed Heads - Gaborik-Min
The Heads need wingers, and they know that the GW's only really need Starboard guys, so the best bet given what has happened so far is that they scoop the injury prone Gabby before the GW's can.
12. Great Whites - Kaberle-D Tor
By this point my lists suggest the GW's GM is cursing the fact that all the RW at the top of his list have vanished, and that rather than chase the curve downwards below the positions actual value, he'll pursue a defenseman. With Gonchar and Whitney gone, and Schneider and Boyle hurt, Kaberle is left as the best pure puck-rusher remaining. The possibility that the GW's back up the Kaberle pick with a second defenseman at pick 13 (McCabe? Rafalski?) is also high.
Gone as FPs: Naslund, Niedermayer, Sundin, Jovanovski
In as FPs: Spezza, Lundqvist, Zetterberg, Whitney
5 comments:
Im taking either Nash or Frolov with my first pick assuming 1 of them isnt matched..
You dont think Collin and Darrel are gonna replace FPs? Also for some reason i think Mike isnt gonna replace his. I dont know why i think that...
I encourage you to take either Nash or Frolov with your first pick as in both cases I believe you would be successful, and in both cases I believe you would be leaving a better player available for me to pick.
I know I won't match an offer on Nash in the first, and I have my doubts that Dan would match a Frolov offer in the first.
I don't Collin will replace an FP because I don't think he needs to. If you review the stats Elias put up as a LW they are comparable to any LW he might reasonably select to replace him, and the three players who are guaranteed to be awesome FPs (as much as those guarantees are worth), are likely to be picked 1-2-3 ahead of him. So why risk the value of a 1st rnd pick when the return on it could end up being even to what you dropped?
For Darrell I think the issue goes deeper. Forsberg was one of his original FP selections, and aside from a few heartbeats when he was with Bob's team during a Cup run, has been with Darrell since then. So long as Forsberg hasn't officially retired, I suspect he will remain with the Personal Vendetta.
I agree with Cam, taking Nash or Frolov with your first pick will just leave better guys for the rest of us in round 1. I'm surprised you would not like Zetterberg (who was an unexpected bonus for the Scourge last year), St Louis (if he's still there), Gaborik, or Whitney more...Plus if Bob is forced to match Whitney in round one, there may still be Lundqvist to consider...
Just as a follow up to the comments about Collin wanting to replace Elias, I looked at his stats for the last 6yrs and they are as follows;
Games - 433
Pts - 409
That's an average of 72 games and 68 pts a year.
What those stats don't show is that he is more or less very durable, puts up just under a ppg independent of what linemates he has, and suffered one really horrific injury filled season out of the last 6.
He's not elite anymore IMO, but I wouldn't ditch him without a surefire better FP available.
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