4/17/2007

Season in Review: The Highlanders

Winning usually answers all questions but when the question is "can they do it again?", a little more effort is required. The Highlanders have every reason to be pleased with their success this year in winning the Predator Cup, Challenge Cup and the Omnivore. The bigger challenge, as evidenced by the past 14 years of futility, is how to repeat the performance.

FPs: The Highlanders entered into the season with Joe Thornton (114pts) and Ed Jovanovski (29pts). Thornton was the defending Art Ross Trophy winner and he followed that up with a season where he finished second in total points to fellow Highlander Sidney Crosby. Barring a trade, Thornton will be a Highlander for years to come. Jovanovski was beset by injury for much of the season (again) and did not finish the season in Highlander colours. The plan was, and is, to replace whoever is in this FP slot with Crosby in 2008 and that plan continues but the new "filler" FP, Chris Pronger (59pts), had a great season (if uninjured he projects out to 73pts) and will probably be traded before the 2008 ED lest he be lost completely to the Highlanders.

Draft: Well the Omnivore baseline suggested that the Highlanders' strength was clear coming out of the draft, with the highest baseline in the league at 1066.80pts. A closer examination suggests that the baseline was not simply the result of strong enduring assets (FPs and prospects), though clearly Crosby, Thornton and promoted prospect Pitkanen all helped, but was rather the product of solid drafting throughout. The Highlanders' first four selections were D.Alfredsson (87pts), L.Nagy (55pts), J.Bouwmeester (42pts) and T.Kaberle (58pts) were not spectacular but some of the later selections - S.Souray (64pts + 33.75 tg pts) matched in the 12th round, M.Erat (57pts - prorated to 69pts if uninjured) in the 14th round and J.Blake (69pts) matched in the 16th round - were solid contributors or became the keys to important trades. A good draft if often as much a product of good fortune (injuries, breakout years) as it is good preparation, if so then the Highlanders had best hope for more good luck if they want a similar result next season.

Moving forward the Highlanders are attempting to do something only done twice before - repeat as Predator Cup champions. A lot of factors suggest that it may be even more difficult than normal to accomplish the feat.

FPs: Steady as she goes. The Highlanders boast the second highest scoring centre in J.Thornton (114pts) and the 6th highest scoring defenseman in C.Pronger (59pts). Had Pronger been uninjured, he would have been the highest pointing defenseman with 73pts. There really isn't too much more that needs to be said other than the plan, clear to everyone, is that the Highlanders will be replacing one of their FPs (presumably Pronger) with S.Crosby in 2008. The most reasonable plan would be to trade Pronger (or Thornton) as part of another Cup run next season or else to create the opening next off-season. In any event, the Highlanders look set as far as FPs are concerned for the forseeable future.

Prospects: The Highlanders needed to deal their top two picks from last season's PrD, P.Kessel and M.Staal, in the course of making their run this year so the cupboard is more bare than usual entering the off season. Still, the Highlanders certainly have some support coming from the prospect ranks next season. Obviously p4 c S.Crosby (120pts) will be selected as an rfa and be a key part of the Highlanders squad next year. In net, the surprise performance was from p4 g R.Dipietro (85.80pts) who will either be drafted as an rfa or, given the lack of returning prospects or quality prospect picks, may stay on as a p4 for the season providing a third goaltender for the Highlanders to work with. However p4 c J.Hudler (25pts) has simply run out of time. The Highlanders may still give p3 lw R.Olesz (30pts) a further opportunity to reach his potential but the time is running out. The one true prospect still in the system is p2 c P.Mueller who is the Hockey News' 7th ranked prospect in their Future Watch. The hope is that, unlike so many other Phoenix prospects, he will be able to fulfill the promise he has shown in the WHL and in international competitions - if so, the Highlanders will have a real gem.

Prospect picks: Another casualty of the Highlander's Cup run was their 1st round pick in the 2007 PrD. The Highlanders have two picks in the 2nd and a high pick in the 3rd but will need some strong scouting to fill out their prospect list with 5 or 6 impact players.

Rfas: S.Souray (64pts + 33.75 tg pts) is the only rfa the Highlanders have. His toughness makes him one of the most valuable players out there and it is likely that he will be drafted fairly early by someone even if the consensus is that he will not hit these totals again next season. The Highlanders certainly can match and hope that he comes close to repeating his carear year or they can try and trade him prior to the ED to a team with more rfas to act as "cover". On the Highlanders roster, a player of Souray's calibre will simply not go unnoticed and is unlikely to be matched for anything less than his full value.

Overall: The Highlanders are in a position that 11 other franchises would like to be, having a chance to repeat. They will need to make few mistakes on draft day to have a realistic shot at doing so. While they will start the season with two elite FPs and S.Crosby, there is very little in addition that they will be working with. Back-to-back championships are hard to come by in the FunHL and the Highlanders will not enter the season as favorites to make history.

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