Prospect History from Cameron from 2008

First I have to say a HUGE ‘THANKS’ to Brian and Rob who provided me with the historical docs I needed to create this database. I believe we should be able to upload this all to our archive on google docs should anyone want to review it again. I will endeavour to take all the docs you have graciously supplied to me and collect them for Craig to post in our Archive. Ok, for better or worse, here is my ‘revised’ prospects history, this time with team break downs, a few mea culpa, and the occasional ‘I bloody told ya’ . For obvious reasons I’ve included Richard/Mike B in Craig’s team history, but I will endeavour to treat it separately for the right-up except for context. The Blade Runners FP’s drafted: 4: Subban, MacKinnon, Vasilevskiy, Bouchard. Pattern: Alternating feast or famine. He has several years (08, 12, 14, 16, 20,…) where there are no hits at all (because,and I can’t stress this enough, prospect drafts are hard) Best Year: 2015; Vasilevskiy, Morrissey-D Wpg, Hellybuck-G WPg, Connor-L Wpg, Point-C TBay, and Barzal-C NYI. Two cornerstone goalies, a top of the scoring charts all-offense winger, a #1 PPG D, and a pair of PPG C’s. We have a couple of drafts where GMs picked two FPs (Darrell and I both in 17), but aside from them, this has to be the best all-time performance at the draft table. Worst Year: Take your pick of the list above. He had at least two drafts without a pick, and half a dozen without hits at all. Best Pick. Vasilevskiy. He’s already a certified HOF’er. Scouting department has a pronounced inexplicable addiction to: The Jets, and Svechnikov the lesser. Despite being a draft/release by the ‘Heads, Brian drafted the Det winger Evgeni Svechnikov in 16, and apparently thrilled with how that felt, they decided to make him a three time prospect and do it again in 17. No I don’t really have a clue why. Their head scout pretty obviously began getting kickbacks from the Jets, first in 15 (Connor, Hellybuyck, Morrissey) and then again less successfullly in 18 to take the guys (Vesealainen, Roslovic, Niku). Fortunately for Brian, some of those guys in 15 were pretty pretty pretty good. Lineup of prospects: L: Robertson, Landeskog, Connor C: MacKinnon, Point, Hischier R: Pacioretty, Corronato, Meier D: Bouchard, Subban, Morrissey, Hamilton, Harley G: Vasilevskiy, Hellybuyck I mean, holy shit Brian. The Great Whites FP’s Drafted: 3; McDavid, Rantanen, Hughes.J Pattern: In baseball terms, he consistently hits for contact. Dan is making a small number of picks in almost every draft (save 17), and is walking away with ‘something’ in every year except 14. Best Year: He had a couple of contenders (15, 18) but 2013; McDavid FP, Nylander, is by far the best. Worst Year: 17? Five franchise players go in the 2017 prospect draft, along with heavy hitters like Necas, Hischier, and Heiskanen. And the Great Whites don’t make any picks. Best Pick: McDavid. Scouting department has a pronounced inexplicable addiction too; mediocrity, at least since 18. The 19, 20, and 21 drafts are ‘mmmmmmeh’ outside of Caufield, and 22 with Nemec and Quinn is starting to slide into miss territory as well. 23 and 24 look MUCH stronger, so the crisis may be over. Lineup of prospects: L: Buchnevich, Baertschi, Denisenko C: McDavid, Hughes.J, Celebrini R: Rantanen, Nylander, Stone D: Doughty, Chabot, Ristolainen, Provorov, Broberg G: Ullmark, Campbell Formidable! The Ramapithicines Look, I gotta warn you, after seeing what Brian, Dan, and others have been doing… this isn’t going to be pretty. FPs drafted: None Pattern: Alternating years of making a large number of picks in order to perhaps find one support player (Anders Lee ‘COME ON DOWN!’), with years where a very small number of picks are used to avoid finding any talent at all. Best year: 2020. Sorokin is the one true top of the line talent the knuckledraggers have selected in the prospect draft in the last 17 years, and he backed it up with Rossi who looks to be at least replacement level or close to it if you squint hard. Worst Year: Ha! It’s funny because (by my insanely biased metrics) they are ALL the worst years! Between 2009 and 2019 Corey drafted 37 times and the best five picks are Kyrou, Saros, Lee, Lehner, and The Real Deal James Neal. Best Pick: Sorokin. Maybe Saros is in the conversation. Scouting department has a pronounced inexplicable addiction too: Stefan Elliott-D Col. Corey’s personal heroin (Corey went to this drug three separate times over 5 years) Elliott has the greatest mediocre hockey db entry ever; 87 games over tiny pieces of 7 different NHL seasons, 8 goals 25 points. Corey also has a thing for redrafts in general; Tolvanen, Burmistrov, Couturier (2x), Frost, Kaako…all guys someone else, occasionally even himself, weirdly let go. Scouting shmouting. Lineup of prospects: L: Lee, Vesey, Pelletier C: Rossi, Gagner.S, Namestnikov R: Kyrou, Neal, Williams D: Montour, Weber, Sandin, Larsson, Elliott G: Sorokin, Saros Worth noting that this is actually worse than it looks, as Montour’s good seasons happened for Collin on Montour’s third redraft, and Weber had maybe one half a season where he was dressable - and those are easily his best D. Not a joke, Elliot and his 25 points over 7 years makes this D on merit. The Highlanders FPs Drafted: 4; Hedman, Barkov, Matthews, Aho Pattern: Two strong years and a down year. Sorta. Best Year: 2015 with Auston Mathews His strongest drafts were also his shortest. Hedman, Barkov and Mathews were the only picks he made in the years they were picked. The one exception of length over strength is 18, where Doug sniped Thomas, Suzuki and Lafrenière for what is his deepest most consistent draft. Worst Year: 2010, Doug emptied the clip making five selections and managed to not hit a damn thing. Best Pick: Hedman. He was picked in 2008 and is in the top 10 defenseman for scoring again this year. Strong case for Mathews to be considered, a conjectural one for McKenna, and none for Hart. Scouting department has a pronounced inexplicable addiction to: conservative long term planning. The team that built for more than a decade around prospect Crosby is about to do so again with McKenna and Makar. More than maybe any other GM Doug takes a small number of very targeted very heavy swings. Lineup of prospects: L: Lafrenière, Grabner, Stankoven C: Mathews, Barkov, Aho R: Raymond, Radulov, Niederreitter D: Hedman, Sanderson, Heiskanen, Klefbom, Maata G: Schneider, Askarov, Stankoven is switched from R to L to make the roster fill out, if you prefer to excise him for purity of comparison reasons, be my guest. A strong deep team (with 3 first overall NHL picks no less) with weaknesses in net and at LW. The Edge FPs Drafted: 3; Zibenejad, Pettersson, and Bedard If you are squeamish about giving him full credit for ZiB as an FP, I think that is fair, but he should probably also get credit for Panarin whose numbers are so stupid he really should have been an FP Pattern: Collin tends to do better in ‘short+sweet’ drafts where he gets the guy he wants early, and then stops. Best Year: All three most recent seasons he drafted an FP calibre guy are in contention (11, 18, 21), but I lean towards 21 as the best in part because I project Bedard better than Petey (or Zibenejad), but also because his 2nd pick Guenther is an absolute animal at RW. (Pettersson/Demko is still really nice though) Worst year: Collin smashed solo picks Ehlers and Panarin out of the park in back to back years (14-15) but then in 16 took four swings and missed on everything except the soul deadening horror of adding the mediocre and always injured Valimaki. Best pick: re-drafting Montour for his one-off psychotic break from reality PPG Norris worthy season in Florida is pretty fucking sweet, and Bedard seems like an obvious choice, but I think his best pick might actually be Tim Stutzle. Scouting department has a pronounced inexplicable addiction to: Brandon Montour would be the obvious choice except it isn’t inexplicable when he actually freaks out and over-performs. Maybe leave Cody Glass alone now though. Lineup of prospects: L: Panarin, Ehlers, Slafkovsky C: Bedard, Pettersson, Zibenejad R: Guenther, Perron, Aberg D: Montour, Shattenkirk, Dumba, Murphy, Beaulieu G: Wolf, Markstrom That defense corps scares nobody but the GM, coach, and his own team’s goaltenders. However, a deep set of pivots (studs like Stutzle and Duchene didn’t even make the cut) that will absolutely run your show, and goaltending (Demko and Neuwirth on the bench) is a real strength. *Was Matt Duchene ever an FP? I feel like he was, and if so, that would boost Collin to 4. Married with Kittens Holy fuck Craig has owned a team for 8 years! Nice! FPs: none Pattern: still remains to be established. Best Year: 2020, getting Powers and Hughes in the same draft is a nice piece of work. Worst Year: 2012. You see the Barbarians made zero picks in 11, and would make zero picks again in 13, but in 12, they made 8 picks to rebuild the farm team, and not one of them were even remotely decent. This repugnant draft included not one, but two veteran goaltenders who were totally spent (Holtby and a 50 year old Tim fucking Thomas) the worlds greatest fourth line C (Mark Jankowski!), and not one but two tiny AHL stars in religious fanatic Rocco Grimaldi, the re-draft Linus ‘rhymes with Penis’ Omark, and a WHL kid who almost immediately vanished. Just a bonkers bad draft. (After making zero picks in 13 Mike B would essentially double down again in 2014 taking 7 guys including Jankowski again!, and again not one was a contributor). Now if we are talking what is Craig’s worst year? Probably 2017, three picks and not much came out of it (though Cody Glass is still bouncing around somewhere), and he’s obviously gotten better since (Batherson, Beniers, Hughes, Kochetckov, etc.) Best Pick: I think Luke Hughes has legit FP potential, but Kochetkov is one of those picks a draftnik nerd like me respects a ton. Scouting department has a pronounced inexplicable addiction to: incompetence - prior to Craig. After Craig takes over things normalize pretty quickly, though maybe stop with the fiction that the Golden Knights are ever going to develop a prospect. Lineup of prospects: L: Knies, Benson, Puljujarvi C: Seguin, Beniers, Kadri R: Batherson, Vilardi, Meier D: Hughes.L, Powers, Vaakaaninen, Zaitsev, Shaw G: Kochetkov, (Hill) Lehner Aside from Seguin, all the good stuff above is Craig’s work. ”One of Us! One of Us!” Note: I am pretty sure (positive) that at some point Craig drafted or inherited Aiden Hill as a prospect goaltender - but I cannot determine the origin as he appears lost in the records I have. I am sure there are other situations like this, and I hope to get them resolved with Brian’s assistance. Note 2: It is also pretty obvious to me that Mike B (and Corey, and maybe Darrell and others) are not pursuing the prospect draft with the same goals I or Brian or Collin, do, and that is a very fair point, they don’t. However, once we decide to evaluate the prospect drafts, whatever criteria we might want to use to do that evaluation pretty quickly comes back with ‘He might be a good GM, but Breakenridge was an utter freaking disaster at the prospect draft’. Personal Vendetta FPs: 2: Kaprizov and Makar Worth noting he picked those guys IN THE SAME PROSPECT DRAFT. Pattern: 2 seasons in 17 without a pick, but otherwise he’s adding a player of some contributing quality in every draft. Also, Darrell maybe more than anyone has the habit of ‘drafting to play’ rather than looking for the highest upside. Darrell is the guy who takes the steady thing over the speculation - like, drafting Moritz Seider in Detroit over WHL uber-teen Connor Bedard. He gets five years of Seider as a ‘free’ #2 defenseman vs Collin getting one mediocre year of Bedard before he is franchised. Personally I would take Bedard 100x out of 100, but it is insane not to concede Darrell has a point. Tomas Plekanec (and then later Michael Backlund) was a fixture on the team for YEARS as the injury sub of choice at center, Darrell is just built different that way. Best Year: 2017, he made four picks and drafted two future FPs Worst Year: 2009, Darrell goes ‘Maximum Bob’ and makes 8 picks to refill the prospect pool, including permanent FUNHL 4th liner Plekanec, and the best of them was Atlanta’s Evander Kane. Which, you know, meh. Best Pick: Cale Makar. Kaprizov is awesome, but Makar is something else entirely. Scouting department has a pronounced inexplicable addiction to: Tomas Plekanec (and his clones). Has anyone ever been addicted to injury replacement level C’s like Darrell is? Lineup of Prospects: L: Kaprizov, Forsberg, Boldy C: Larkin, Zegras, Schwartz R: Okposo, Vrana, Duclair D: Makar, Seider, Byram, Bogosian, Nurse G: Samsonov, Dostal A little thin at center, that is not a great RW, and the goaltending is…a question. The Knights Templar FPs drafted: 1: Hughes.Q-D VCR Pattern: Very hit and miss, Mike will have 5 picks, whiff on them all, and then the next draft have two and nail both - the Knights are just random like that. Best Year: 2018, Quinn Hughes Worst Year: 2017 was a dark time with 5 picks, and the best might be noted 4th liner Mark Jankowski. And if you are saying to yourself ‘Gosh, Mark Jankowski appears to get drafted a lot’, yes, he sure does. Why is 17 so bad to miss on? So many high quality guys went in 17 (see Darrell and Cameron’s 17 draft) that it’s criminal he didn’t land even one useful guy. Best Pick: It’s Quinn Hughes, but he also deserves some love for his astute pick of Theodore-D Ana, a nifty selection who would end up going to Vegas in a trade at the expansion draft. Scouting department has a pronounced inexplicable addiction to: oversized Russian power wingers with questionable footspeed (Maltsev, Marchenko)! As addictions go, this one I totally get. I’ll be fighting with him over the But-R Arz kid at some point. Lineup of Prospects L: Burakowsky, Mangiapane, Ferland C: Hintz, Ericksson-Ek, Henrique R: Marchenko, Zuccarello, McGroarty D: Hughes.Q, Pieterangelo, Theodore, Ekblad, Ceci G: Anderson, Johnasson Fantastic top four D, but otherwise they could be in serious trouble scoring goals. The Wolves FPs Drafted: Marner-R. Tor Pattern: Aside from Brian has the starkest ‘on off’ draft switch in the league. Either he’s picking well, or terrible, with little in between. Unfortunately when you add in the years he makes no picks at all, it tilts away from there being a steady stream of talent, to being a patchwork. Best Year: 2015. Rob snagged Marner a future FP, a PPG D-man in Werenski, and then added the solid if unspectacular Jeff Chychrun for good measure. Worst Year: No picks at all in 09 or 10 (and only a re-draft of Wheeler in 11) makes for a very poor flowing talent pipeline for three years. That can leave a mark. Best Pick: Has to be Marner Scouting department has a pronounced inexplicable addiction to: Blake Wheeler. Rob drafted him as a prospect twice, and then I believe again as a player several times more. To be fair, Wheeler eventually ended up being very good. Lineup of Prospects: L: Greenway, Dupuis, Honzek C: Horvat, Schenn, Carlson.L R: Marner, Wheeler, Hoglander D: Werenski, Dobson, Jones.S, Chychrun, Schultz, G: Kahkonen, Kincaid Not great (especially at G, C, and L, yikes), but the D is pretty nice, and I believe overall it will look better once Leo Carlson and Honzek start producing. His last couple of draft classes have some very interesting talent (Smith, Dickinson, Yakemchuk) and this team may look a lot different in a few years. Maybe hire somebody who knows how to scout goaltenders though. The Scourge FPs Drafted: 1; Draisaitl Pattern: The machine. With only a couple of exceptions Chris is getting value out of the draft, period. It might just be a depth defender (Ellis), or a truculent but skilled C (Dubois), or a PPG+ all star (Eichel) but he is getting SOMETHING. Best Year: 2014; Draisaitl, Eichel Not a hard choice given how awesome the two picks he made are. Worst Year: in 08 Chris made four picks that were all flops, and in 2018 he had just the one pick and blew it on noted Islanders sniper and USNTDP grad, Oliver Wahlstrom. But that’s it. Aside from those two drafts a decade apart, Chris just doesn’t miss. (Note: I have a can of coke that says he also just blew it in 2024, but the jury is out) Best Pick: Draisaitl The only competition is Eichel the guy he took ahead of Draisaitl. Scouting department has a pronounced inexplicable addiction to: Jeff Skinner. His addiction to the defensively challenged gunner starts in 2010, and then gets renewed in 2015. Lineup of Prospects: L: Svechnikov, Skinner, Kuzmenko C: Draisaitl, Eichel, Schiefle R: Reinhart, Nichushkin, Necas D: Fowler, Ellis, Gudbranson, Hickey G: So we have our first ‘incomplete’ roster, I am simply unable to fill it out with drafted players because Chris keeps drafting C’s ahead of everything else. He hasn’t taken a defenseman in the prospect draft since 2009, and he has never, ever, drafted a goaltender prospect. Which just highlights the fact that teams do not draft to fill out a roster, but to address specific needs of their teams and seasons, and this whole exercise is pointless. Or something. The Shadowmen FPs Drafted: 5; Tkachuk.M, Tkachuk.B, Reilly, Tarasenko, Benn Pattern: “Chaos is a ladder”, since 2009 Bob has on no fewer than 8 different occasions drafted an entire new farm team (8 players), and he has done drafts of 7 and 6 as well. Continuity is for pussies. Best Year: 2010, He’s got a bunch of candidate seasons to consider, but in most of his FP drafting seasons they are the only player who panned out. The exception is 2010 when along with the high scoring Tarasenko he nabbed useful wingers Tatar and Nyqvist and a starting goalie in Schneider. That is a very decent haul! Worst Year: 2022 isn’t looking too good, 8 guys picked, and only Arturi Lehkonen is as yet even a replacement level player. It could be 2023 though if neither of Nasar or Kasper can crack an NHL lineup and contribute. Or it could be way back in 2008 when he made four picks and the best of them was the extremely disappointing Cody Hodgson. But that is it really, despite all the chaos Bob manages to find stuff every year, and his scouts trip over FPs more often than anyone else. Scouting department has a pronounced inexplicable addiction to: tossing away their ADHD meds. I had mentioned that between 2009-2019 Corey drafted 37 players, meanwhile, over the same time span Bob drafted 78. Lineup of Prospects: L: Benn, Tkachuk.M, Nyqvist C: Hertl, Konecny, Kempe R: Tarasenko, Tkachuk.B, Toffoli D: Reilly, Hanifin, Orlov, Montour, Matheson G: Schneider, Gibson Thin at C, decent goaltending, and a deep set of high scoring and physically abusive wingers. Team Donut! Also, we have yet another Brandon Montour (and Matheson!) sighting. Severed Heads FPs Drafted: 5, Hall, Karlsson, Kuznetsov, Dahlin, Fox Pattern: Typically hits on something 2 out of 3 drafts, making 2-5 selections a year. Lots of D, lots of underagers with high ceilings. Best Year: 08, and 17 both landed two FPs. 08 also landed a useful player in Ville Leino, but his value is anlmost imperceptible. Worst Year: 2013 the Heads had one pick and wasted it on Brendan Smith-D Det. In 18 and 19 he had 3 picks in each and managed to elude finding any talent whatsoever by chasing after the mirages of Puljujarvi, Mittlestadt and Byfield, and getting lost in the dessert. Scouting department has a pronounced inexplicable addiction to: teenagers toiling in foreign leagues, and high-skill defensemen. Lineup of Prospects L: Forsberg, Laine, Puljujarvi C: Kuznetsov, Nugent-Hopkins, Lindholm.E R: Hall, Michkov, Demidov D: Karlsson, Dahlin, Fox, McAvoy, Hutson G: Knight, Nabokov Not the best team (that would Brian), but I’ll suggest my drafted D prospects are the best in the league, and I am pretty good with that. Also, very nearly could not complete the roster (ala Chris) as I needed Nabokov from this years draft to finish off goaltending, and while Demidov hasn’t done anything yet, he is still no doubt better than Sprong currently is, so I made Demidov my last RW. Our Favourite Prospects Stefan Elliot 3x Paajarvi-Svenson 3x Brandon Montour 3x Mark Jankowski 3x David Perron 3x Please let me know if you find errors in any of this, and my apologies to Corey I had no idea it was that bad when I started and my greatest joy was finding out Mike B was even worse.