Hi Gang,
Congrats again to the Severed Heads on their 3rd Predator Cup.
Still with the Flames now extinguished, the task of pre-draft preparation is now before us. First issue for the DC to address is goalie stats. This is always an annual event to look at the numbers and see if they are completely out of whack or not. Last year we held pat at 4 after moving there post-lockout from 3.5 and there was certainly an arguement last season to make the switch but now I really can't muster much of a defense to the current 4.0 standard - it really is too high.
14 of the top 24 FunHL point-getters are goaltenders. Of the 9 FunHL players to garner a 100 or more pts this season (not including TG pts) 7 of them were goaltenders including the top 4 point-getters. Nabokov and Brodeur both had 29 more pts than Hart Trophy winner Alex Ovechkin and while I will conceed that both Nabokov and Brodeur had good seasons - no body is suggesting (outside of our FunHL stats system) that their play this year outshone Alex the Great by almost 30pts!
Goalies are over-valued at present but I'm not sure that the 3.5 standard is the only solution here. While the 3.5 option reduces the goaltending union to having only two 100pt players (Nabokov and Brodeur are both about 102pts) I'm not sure that it really gives us what we want.
The DC's job is to work on a recalculation of the figured stats, such as the goalie shutout standard of 4 or 3.5 or some other number, but I am wondering if it might not be time for the pool to look at whether we want to look at other ways of calculating goalie stats in a more radical manner - wins, saves, save %, etc? I throw it out there.
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While I have no problem reducing the the shut out points back to 3.5 to try to score another factor becomes even more complicated. As it is it Goaltenders points are often the cause for differentials as the carrying of decimals and rounding take affect.
The one issue of flattening the goaltenders points is that we end of with a lot more RFA goaltenders. I remember before we went to 4 points the Goaltender rush did not start until the 11 or 12 round as too many goalies were at the same point value. Lots of GMS did not draft their first goalie until then.
Personally I see no reason to change from a stat based on GAA. I don't think wins or save % are suitable for our purposes, not to mention it could radically change how goalies are valued. I agree the value should change but not in a radical fashion.
Based on the stats, I think using the 3.5 model brings goalie stats back in line with other players. If that means more GM choose to select goalies as RFAs, I see no problem with that...
Hi Rob,
You are right about the plethora of RFA goaltending because at 3.5 pts for a shutout there are a slew of 55-65pt goaltenders.
The real distinguishing feature of the top goalies is less great GAA (though they all have great GAA) but rather a high number of minutes played.
I'm certainly not advocating that we change the basis of goalie stats - just figure that we should at least broach the subject to see what the mood is.
An option to consider would be to shadow-track some alternatives over the course of the next season - assuming that we can come up with a comprable alternative to track.
To my knowledge there only other method I am aware of that has any popularity is to award a goaltender points based on wins and shutouts - and I HATE that method.
Colour me among those who believe 3.5 makes the most sense for us.
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